Joe Flacco or Ray Rice?

**wickedsolo** · 04-26-2012, 11:08 AM

Originally Posted by Boulderraven

The Oline was average, not horrible. They struggled the ENTIRE season in short yardage this year. Not last year, the year before because they didn't use RW in that spot were they used McGahee and LeRon. Rice is not physically built for
that role. Had they used RW for short yardage they would have likely been better. The oline was adequate in other situations. You have to have a special skill set for short yardage- which Rice doesn't possess.

If the OL gives him a crack, he's going to squirt through it. I get what you're saying about his size versus a 230lb back, but at the end of the day if the OL does their job then it's all a moot point. Maybe someone like RW or whoever could have picked up those short yards even with sub-par performance from the OL, but then again, maybe not.

What I do know is that with a good offensive line the running game and the passing game suddenly look a lot better.

**wickedsolo** · 04-26-2012, 11:09 AM

Originally Posted by Corey

Well, lets look at that.

The Ravens rushing ranks the 5 years before Ray Rice arrived:
YPG/ YPC
2003- 1st / 3rd (Lewis 2k season)
2004- 9th / 14th
2005- 21st/ 25th
2006- 25/ 31st
2007- 16th/ 15th

After Ray Rice:
2008: 4th/ 21st
2009: 5th/ 4th
2010:14th/ 25th
2011: 10th/ 12th

This idea that the Ravens are able to put together a great or even good rushing attack without a premier running back is a fallacy. The best years that the team has had rushing the ball have come while Lewis or Rice have been in their primes.

Argue that the Ravens are good at finding top notch running backs but don't argue that players like Ray Rice don't make a difference and that their production is easily replaceable. Because as Lewis's decline starting from 2005 shows, they are not.

It's kind of hard to gauge the entire offense as a whole from 05-07 though. It was just bad all around.

**The Excellector** · 04-26-2012, 11:29 AM

You don't have to replace all of Rice's production with another RB. How many times do we have to say that? If you upgrade the WR position, Joe has shown that he can make the throws. If you get better play from the WRs, you won't need all of Rice's production to be replaced.

**bmorecareful** · 04-26-2012, 11:32 AM

Originally Posted by Corey

Well, lets look at that.

The Ravens rushing ranks the 5 years before Ray Rice arrived:
YPG/ YPC
2003- 1st / 3rd (Lewis 2k season)
2004- 9th / 14th
2005- 21st/ 25th
2006- 25/ 31st
2007- 16th/ 15th

After Ray Rice:
2008: 4th/ 21st
2009: 5th/ 4th
2010:14th/ 25th
2011: 10th/ 12th

This idea that the Ravens are able to put together a great or even good rushing attack without a premier running back is a fallacy. The best years that the team has had rushing the ball have come while Lewis or Rice have been in their primes.

Argue that the Ravens are good at finding top notch running backs but don't argue that players like Ray Rice don't make a difference and that their production is easily replaceable. Because as Lewis's decline starting from 2005 shows, they are not.

There are a lot of problems with your argument. First, correlation does not equal causation. The mere fact that our rushing attack got better around the same time that Rice was drafted does not necessarily mean it got better BECAUSE Rice was drafted. You would need to do more to prove that, and the first thing you would need to prove is that there were no other factors that could explain why our rushing attack got better outside of Rice.

You can't do that because Rice's arrival also coincided with Cam Cameron's. How do we know it's not the influence of the OC that has made our rushing attack better? Or how do we know it's not Joe Flacco's arm? Or improvement in the OL? Or overall improvement in our talent at RB, including McGahee and McClain? So your argument has a big philosophical problem in that it can't actually prove its premise.

Which brings me to my second point: your facts. Of the 4 "after Rice" years you mentioned, the most successful rushing years were 2008 and 2009. Rice was 3rd on the team in rushing yards in 2008 by a country mile; how does he have anything to do with that? I'd contend our success in 2008 was due to our OL and the other 2 backs on our roster performing at a high level. It had nothing to do with Rice. Further, in 2009, Rice platooned with McGahee and McClain, and although he was very successful in that year McGahee averaged 5.0 YPC to Rice's 5.3 so it seems like they were both doing well, not just Rice. So in 2008 and 2009 the facts don't support that Rice was the most important factor in a great rushing attack.

In fact, over the last two years, we've been a less successful rushing team by total yards and YPC. Those 2 years coincide with Rice being given more carries as the undisputed feature back. Using your logic, I could argue this means that Rice must not be as good as he seemed when he was given less carries, but as I've said it's not all about the RB. There are too many other factors to make it that black and white.

I'm not making a judgment on Rice and his contribution to this team, just pointing out that things are more complex than they appear.

**Boulderraven** · 04-26-2012, 11:34 AM

Originally Posted by wickedsolo

If the OL gives him a crack, he's going to squirt through it. I get what you're saying about his size versus a 230lb back, but at the end of the day if the OL does their job then it's all a moot point. Maybe someone like RW or whoever could have picked up those short yards even with sub-par performance from the OL, but then again, maybe not.

What I do know is that with a good offensive line the running game and the passing game suddenly look a lot better.

The thing is on goal line or short yardage it usually 8 offensive blockers usually vs 9 usually 10 defense. Even behind great olines there is rarely a crack, it usually up to
creative play calling or the skill of the RB in short yardage. That's why I think Rice is a good a great 2 down, but not 3 down back. But wants 3 down back money.

**Corey** · 04-26-2012, 04:29 PM

Originally Posted by The Excellector

You don't have to replace all of Rice's production with another RB. How many times do we have to say that? If you upgrade the WR position, Joe has shown that he can make the throws. If you get better play from the WRs, you won't need all of Rice's production to be replaced.

Joe Flacco has shown he can make the throws when the defense focuses on Ray Rice. If the next running back you bring in is not putting up similar production to Rice, Joe Flacco no longer has the liberty because Joe Flacco becomes the defenses main focus. We still don't know if Flacco can succeed in that situation on a consistent basis.

Originally Posted by bmorecareful

Which brings me to my second point: your facts. Of the 4 "after Rice" years you mentioned, the most successful rushing years were 2008 and 2009. Rice was 3rd on the team in rushing yards in 2008 by a country mile; how does he have anything to do with that? I'd contend our success in 2008 was due to our OL and the other 2 backs on our roster performing at a high level.

The point of me posting the YPC rankings was to differentiate when the team was really successful at running the ball from when they posted the numbers because of the amount that they ran it. 2008 is the prime example of that and I would argue that they were far more successful at running the ball in 09 and 11 than they were in 2008.

2008 they ranked high simply because they ran it more than anyone else. That doesn't mean they had the most effective running game.

Of that entire 9 year stretch, I'd argue that the best 4 years were 03 and 04, when we had Lewis. And 09 and this past season when Ray Rice was our main guy.

I am just saying people seem to think the Ravens can plug any player in to the running game and be successful running the ball. It's simply not the case and there is nothing in the Ravens history to back it up.