BACKLASH POLL: Mitt 7 pt lead

[AirFlacco]

Remember, I was the first in here to call for a land slide. With all
the crap OBYs been pulling with the kill and now gay marriage,
Rasmussen has MItt ahead by 7 points - 50-43%.

That doesnt count the un-decideds, which none of the polls
include. Throw them in and you can add 10 pts. Un-decideds
have never voted for the incumbent.

And don't forget the Ohio State thread where OBY spoke before a near
empty stadium.

I also have a thread quoting Carville telling the DEMs to wake up or
they will lose big. He was the brains behind Clinton's election.

Dick Morris also said it will be a land slide. He was Clinton's Chief of
Staff and got him to go along with Newt to balance the budget. He said
you will get the credit, not the Congress and he was right.

Gallup had Mitt with a 8 pt lead before this one.

The country is getting sick of this commie.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll

[StingerNLG]

There is no way in hell this election will be a landslide. The media and the union thugs will see to that.

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[HoustonRaven]

Dick Morris said "if the election were held today" it would be a landslide.

Agree with Sting, no way in hell this one is going to be a landslide. Far too many media cronies out there that will pimp for Obama.

[AirFlacco]

There is no way in hell this election will be a landslide. The media and the union thugs will see to that.

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Good point Sting but the union is getting slaughtered in the Wisconsin
recall vote now. Walker is killing the DEMs. The
Tea Party has done a good job in diminishing their power but there's
always the media as you say but even they have been taking their
lumps in this back lash poll. These numbers will only increase, then go
down after the DEM convention, then go by up by Nov.

A pal was saying last night at the water hole they
would pull all the stops like lowering the gas prices just before the election
and what not. Prices are already lowering but that's due to a decrease in
demand in China and here as the links I posted indicate.

That said, a 7-pt lead can be considered a land slide now. OBY is about
to lose NC as I said on the gay marriage thread and is tied with Ohio as
a swing state.

Mitt will pull ahead of him there. A convict almost beat OBY in W VA
and is allowed to be a delegate at their convention because he got 15%
of the vote. A convict no less. ILMAO.

I'll stand by my prediction for the slide. The people are getting sick of him.
Even his own people.

See Bill Clinton thread.

ps

don't forget the un-decideds.

they're not counted in these polls.

they never vote for the incumbent.

Both Carville and Morris said OBY can lose big.

[NCRAVEN]

I agree with Morris that if the election were held today it would be a landslide.

There is just way to much time between now and November to say what will happen.

If Walker wins in Wisconsin (again) I think that will give us a good indication, as long as Mitt STAYS ON MESSAGE.

OH and Trap, you're right even his own supporters are getting tired of him. A friend of mine who is very left and a hardcore dem posted on facebook the other day "are we better off than we were 4 years ago" and followed it up with a comment that said "if I have to ask I guess I know the answer"

[AirFlacco]

Oh man. You just blew my argument away man with the time.

McCain was 2 pts ahead when the market crash and would have won the
election if the crash occurred just 4 weeks later. That's the only reason
OBY won - the economy crashed.

So I'll have to re-vise my statement saying barring any curve ball in
world events or otherwise, it will be a land slide for Mitt which means
he won't need my vote so I won't have to vote-lol.

Great point NC.

[Galen Sevinne]

You guys are woeful when it comes understanding this stuff. You take a Rassmussen poll of +7 and thinik Romney in a landslide.

Take a look at the current electoral map:

http://www.270towin.com/

Obama is at about 227 with states solidly in his favor on this map. Look at some swing state poll data:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes...ReleaseID=1743

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo...ests/states/FL

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo...ests/states/PA

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo...ests/states/OH

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo...ests/states/NV

and tell me where you see the "landslide" That is a total joke. Yes, Romney has tightened some swing races to a couple points down vs. last weeks several points down. If you study the electoral map, Obama has far more ways to 270 than Romney. This election right now is either tight win either way or comfortable win for Obama. There is no way it is a landslide for Romney. Why? Dick Morris? Too much.

[NCRAVEN]

You guys are woeful when it comes understanding this stuff. You take a Rassmussen poll of +7 and thinik Romney in a landslide.

Take a look at the current electoral map:

http://www.270towin.com/

Obama is at about 227 with states solidly in his favor on this map. Look at some swing state poll data:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes...ReleaseID=1743

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo...ests/states/FL

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo...ests/states/PA

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo...ests/states/OH

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo...ests/states/NV

and tell me where you see the "landslide" That is a total joke. Yes, Romney has tightened some swing races to a couple points down vs. last weeks several points down. If you study the electoral map, Obama has far more ways to 270 than Romney. This election right now is either tight win either way or comfortable win for Obama. There is no way it is a landslide for Romney. Why? Dick Morris? Too much.

Well Galen. IF you search for objectionable info instead of TPM you might see recent polls have Romney ahead in FL (even your poll had that) NC, VA, tied in OH.

I haven't seen very many NV polls (probably cause the low amount of electoral votes) but I heard on a NV radio station (online) that in the past year the lead in registered Dems had over Repubs fell by 100k, how many did Obama win by in 08 you ask 130k.

And as Morris points out (which you probably didn't read) undecided almost ALWAYS go against the incumbent (only Bush 43 got some in the past 8 elections) and BHO is about 50 in what a PA, NM, MI?

Here for your viewing pleasure is how Morris arrives at a "landslide, if the election were held today"
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...de_114108.html

[HoustonRaven]

I've been saying it's not about the approval numbers, it's about the electoral math.

Galen is correct to point that out. As of today, Romney would have to win all the toss up states. Nobody in either campaign gives the popularity as much credence as they do the electoral math.

But, as NC points out, it's WAY too early for either side to celebrate. It's going to be close, baring any monumentally stupid or otherwise scandalous news from either camp.

[NCRAVEN]

Just to be clear, I am talking about polling numbers of who would vote for who in each state, not approval numbers in each state.

[AirFlacco]

Im telling yoos Mitt is gonna get those swing states - OHio, Va etc. He
already has NC. That's where the electoral votes add up and why they are
so important.

And as I always say, those polls Galen pulls out of his ass are directed at
mostly un-likey voters or un-registered voters. Rasmussen is about the only poll that surveys voters that are registered and are most likely to vote.

And one other thing, Galen's polls word their surveys to get the vote they
want. Another words, it's in the wording of the survey.

Context is everything!

[AirFlacco]

Here's a real clear electoral map giving OBY a 250-170 pt lead but it has
Fla, NC, Va as toss up states. We're saying Mitt will get those states. Ohio
is even now and they have it as a toss up with 18 pts.

So that map is not entirely right and those states would pull Mitt almost
even plus the rest of the toss ups. Ohio has been an economically depressed state and Mitt beat Santorum in Ohio focusing on jobs while he spoke on social issues. Mitt will continue to hit on jobs and win Ohio as well. He probably won't get his own state of Michigan which always goes Dem.
There are still red counties in eastern Ohio that will vote GOP and some on
the southwestern side of the state as well. The big cities like our pals
in Cinci and Cleve will go DEM as usual where are the unions are.


Then there are the Western states they have as toss up and I disagree with
some of those blue states. We'll see.

As OBY keeps tanking and doing stupid stuff Mitt will win all those states.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

[Galen Sevinne]

Here's a real clear electoral map giving OBY a 250-170 pt lead but it has
Fla, NC, Va as toss up states. We're saying Mitt will get those states. Ohio
is even now and they have it as a toss up with 18 pts.

So that map is not entirely right and those states would pull Mitt almost
even plus the rest of the toss ups. Ohio has been an economically depressed state and Mitt beat Santorum in Ohio focusing on jobs while he spoke on social issues. Mitt will continue to hit on jobs and win Ohio as well. He probably won't get his own state of Michigan which always goes Dem.
There are still red counties in eastern Ohio that will vote GOP and some on
the southwestern side of the state as well. The big cities like our pals
in Cinci and Cleve will go DEM as usual where are the unions are.


Then there are the Western states they have as toss up and I disagree with
some of those blue states. We'll see.

As OBY keeps tanking and doing stupid stuff Mitt will win all those states.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

Its six months until the only poll that really matters occurs. You can't say anyone will win any of those swing states with any bit of certainty right now. What you can say is how important the hispanic vote will be expecially out west. It is quite possible that for the first time ever a Republican candidate could win Ohio and lose the election because of the hispanic vote. If you follow folks who are focusing on electoral math, they mostly agree that Obama has more paths to 270 than Romney. It is going to be a tight squeeze for Romney and there isn't much of a potential for him to have an easy win like what you saw with Obama in 2008. Likewise, Obama will won't perform like he did in 2008 but he has the electoral math in his favor and that probably won't change much which puts Romney in a position where he is going to have to run a damn near flawless campaign. Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, Gibbs et al are not only a very formidable team but they have four years of experience.

Another site to watch other than the electoral maps is Intrade which has a decent history of reflecting election outcomes. Political savvy people can bet their real money on elections. I like it because it is a different spin on polls. People who go to this site to bet on politics mostl likely, in aggregate, are knowlegeable about trends and outcomes. It isn't a slam dunk by any means but i think it adds a good additional number to electoral maps and aggregate national polls. As it stands now, the political gamblers have Obama at a 60% chance of winning and Romney at a 36% chance at winning. Personally, I have been looking at Obama at about a 60% chance myself for a while now. In 2008, Obama was at about 65% to McCains 35% on Intrade.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/co...tractId=743474

[StingerNLG]

Its six months until the only poll that really matters occurs. You can't say anyone will win any of those swing states with any bit of certainty right now.

Funny how that wasn't what you were saying a couple weeks ago when Obama was leading in some of those polls. All of a sudden as people are waking up to the election after tuning oit the primaries, Romney is picking up steam and leading in some swing state polls and now all of a sudden the tune changes.

After a while, America calls BS on the press, and the President's bogus claims and Romney will pull ahead and win this election.
Hopenchange only fooled people in 2008. It's not going to do it again.

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[Galen Sevinne]

Funny how that wasn't what you were saying a couple weeks ago when Obama was leading in some of those polls. All of a sudden as people are waking up to the election after tuning oit the primaries, Romney is picking up steam and leading in some swing state polls and now all of a sudden the tune changes.

After a while, America calls BS on the press, and the President's bogus claims and Romney will pull ahead and win this election.
Hopenchange only fooled people in 2008. It's not going to do it again.

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Not sure what you are talking about here. Obama is still leading the aggregate national polls on RCP 47.7-45.4 and TPM 46.5-44.8. Obama is up in electoral numbers on conservative leaning RCP 253-170. Intrade has Obama at 60% chance of winning. Obama is fine; its Romney, quite like McCain that is in need of something in the next 6 months to swing this in his favor.

More importantly, it has been Obama out front in the news cycle and Romney trying to keep up. I don't understand anything about Romney's campaign and what they are trying to do to make an impression. Outside of his successful business experience, he has little to offer in way of a campaign impression. Meanwhile, Obama has been out front with the important female vote, important hispanic vote and now marriage equality. Romney hasn't been able to get out in front of the news really at all.

Fpr example, even with this marriage equality talk which you all think is a gauranteed losing message for Obama, Romney is defending (or trying to defend) pinning some gay kid down in high school and cutting off his hair. Truthfully, I believe Romney probably has changed and he isn't such a dick today as he was then but as long as he keeps getting put into positions like that, he will will never get out in front of a message. These are the subtle weekly flows of a campaign that is only showing right now the much more effective campaign team behind obama. Romney's team better figure out a way to control a couple news cycles here soon or else Team Obama will define Romney, who really has little definition right now, for himself and you can bet that definition will not be nice.

My point of my comments in this thread is that you guys are all hyped up over one conservative leaning Rassmussen poll and comments by a guy in Dick Morris who is lucky to get a seat on O'Reilly sitting next to Dennis Miller.

[NCRAVEN]

Not sure what you are talking about here. Obama is still leading the aggregate national polls on RCP 47.7-45.4 and TPM 46.5-44.8. Obama is up in electoral numbers on conservative leaning RCP 253-170. Intrade has Obama at 60% chance of winning. Obama is fine; its Romney, quite like McCain that is in need of something in the next 6 months to swing this in his favor.

He is talking about individual polls, not averages of polls, some a month old and some used in those averages are from PPP who as mentioned before had Democrats keeping the House in '10

More importantly, it has been Obama out front in the news cycle and Romney trying to keep up. I don't understand anything about Romney's campaign and what they are trying to do to make an impression. Outside of his successful business experience, he has little to offer in way of a campaign impression. Meanwhile, Obama has been out front with the important female vote, important hispanic vote and now marriage equality. Romney hasn't been able to get out in front of the news really at all.

This doesn't mean anything from someone who gets his news from MSNBS ... err I mean media matters.

Fpr example, even with this marriage equality talk which you all think is a gauranteed losing message for Obama, Romney is defending (or trying to defend) pinning some gay kid down in high school and cutting off his hair. Truthfully, I believe Romney probably has changed and he isn't such a dick today as he was then but as long as he keeps getting put into positions like that, he will will never get out in front of a message. These are the subtle weekly flows of a campaign that is only showing right now the much more effective campaign team behind obama. Romney's team better figure out a way to control a couple news cycles here soon or else Team Obama will define Romney, who really has little definition right now, for himself and you can bet that definition will not be nice.

Romney is well-known for being a prankster but even still, some of the people that were used in the very timely story about Romney bullying a "presumed" gay man weren't there or didn't now about it. And the family of the guy dispute the story

My point of my comments in this thread is that you guys are all hyped up over one conservative leaning Rassmussen poll and comments by a guy in Dick Morris who is lucky to get a seat on O'Reilly sitting next to Dennis Miller.

Remember when you used Rasmussen a few months back? Now you discredit him, shocker. Morris can be a bit of douche sometimes, but you can't deny his polling and campaign experience.

You still can't get past that undecided almost always go against the incumbent. While some polls have Obama leading how many have him over 50%? And the ones that do are polling adults not even registered vote -which Trap pointed out are even less accurate than likely voters.

[HoustonRaven]

Galen poll hops.

One week it's Gallup, then it's Pew, then it's Rasmussen. And if any of them say something anti-Obama, then they are biased.

Much like he cherry picks quotes from the WH web site, he does the same with polls.

Must be cozy in that box of his.

[StingerNLG]

Not sure what you are talking about here. Obama is still leading the aggregate national polls on RCP 47.7-45.4 and TPM 46.5-44.8. Obama is up in electoral numbers on conservative leaning RCP 253-170. Intrade has Obama at 60% chance of winning. Obama is fine; its Romney, quite like McCain that is in need of something in the next 6 months to swing this in his favor.

NC already covered this. I'm not averaging old polls.

More importantly, it has been Obama out front in the news cycle and Romney trying to keep up. I don't understand anything about Romney's campaign and what they are trying to do to make an impression. Outside of his successful business experience, he has little to offer in way of a campaign impression. Meanwhile, Obama has been out front with the important female vote, important hispanic vote and now marriage equality. Romney hasn't been able to get out in front of the news really at all.

To this you are correct. Obama wants to talk about ANYTHING right now except his job performance, the economy, healthcare, etc. So he is going with the "Shiny Object" strategy of making this election about things that aren't even coming up on people's radar as to what they care about. Gay marriage and contraception is only important to select liberals and the media who is working overtime to get their man re-elected.

Romney is trying to talk about the things that matter, like jobs. But the media doesn't want to talk about that, so they try to change the subject and even exploit inaccurate stories about Romney's high school years to keep Romney from talking about the economy.

Sadly, liberals don't understand that jobs and gas prices and such are just as important to women if not more right now. Well, they do know that so they are doing their best to change that subject with them.

My point of my comments in this thread is that you guys are all hyped up over one conservative leaning Rassmussen poll and comments by a guy in Dick Morris who is lucky to get a seat on O'Reilly sitting next to Dennis Miller.

And my point is that you cherry pick, and people are getting disgusted with Obama and the media trying to fool them. They are starting to wake up, and these polls are bearing that out.



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[AirFlacco]

For example, even with this marriage equality talk which you all think is a gauranteed losing message for Obama, Romney is defending (or trying to defend) pinning some gay kid down in high school and cutting off his hair. Truthfully, I believe Romney probably has changed and he isn't such a dick today as he was then but as long as he keeps getting put into positions like that, he will will never get out in front of a message. These are the subtle weekly flows of a campaign that is only showing right now the much more effective campaign team behind obama. Romney's team better figure out a way to control a couple news cycles here soon or else Team Obama will define Romney, who really has little definition right now, for himself and you can bet that definition will not be nice.

LOL - Nope it won't but whatever it is, it won't be as bad as these DEM candidates:

Mitt Romney did not murder anyone at Chappaquiddick - Teddy Kennedy. Mitt Romney has not been accused of rape - Teddy Kennedy & Slick Willie Clinton. Mitt Romney did not have an affair with a mob babe - John Kennedy. He didn't have an affair with an actress who committed suicide later on - John & Bobby Kennedy. Mitt Romney did not father a child out of wedlock - J. Edwards,
Mitt did not order the tapping of Martin Luther King's phone - Bobby Kennedy, Mitt was not a member of the KKK like Truman who paid $10
membership fee, Woodrow Wilson and Senator Byrd.

[StingerNLG]

I find it hilariously hypocritical that what Obama did in the Senate, what he did in College, who he associated with in his adult life (Jeremiah Wright, Bill Ayers, etc: ) were all off limits in 2008, and still is. Yet the same media, you know the UNBIASED media (wink,wink,nudge,nudge,know what I mean?) , is taking some great delight in a story about Romney in HIGH SCHOOL, that has not only been shown not accurate and the guy that recalled the story wasn't even there when this supposed incident happened, but has been the latest "whatever we can do to not talk about Obama's record".

Thus why the polling is starting to turn in Romney's favor. The more of this bullshit they see, the less they trust the media and are starting to break for Romney.

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