Quote Originally Posted by AirFlacco View Post
Here's a real clear electoral map giving OBY a 250-170 pt lead but it has
Fla, NC, Va as toss up states. We're saying Mitt will get those states. Ohio
is even now and they have it as a toss up with 18 pts.

So that map is not entirely right and those states would pull Mitt almost
even plus the rest of the toss ups. Ohio has been an economically depressed state and Mitt beat Santorum in Ohio focusing on jobs while he spoke on social issues. Mitt will continue to hit on jobs and win Ohio as well. He probably won't get his own state of Michigan which always goes Dem.
There are still red counties in eastern Ohio that will vote GOP and some on
the southwestern side of the state as well. The big cities like our pals
in Cinci and Cleve will go DEM as usual where are the unions are.


Then there are the Western states they have as toss up and I disagree with
some of those blue states. We'll see.

As OBY keeps tanking and doing stupid stuff Mitt will win all those states.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html
Its six months until the only poll that really matters occurs. You can't say anyone will win any of those swing states with any bit of certainty right now. What you can say is how important the hispanic vote will be expecially out west. It is quite possible that for the first time ever a Republican candidate could win Ohio and lose the election because of the hispanic vote. If you follow folks who are focusing on electoral math, they mostly agree that Obama has more paths to 270 than Romney. It is going to be a tight squeeze for Romney and there isn't much of a potential for him to have an easy win like what you saw with Obama in 2008. Likewise, Obama will won't perform like he did in 2008 but he has the electoral math in his favor and that probably won't change much which puts Romney in a position where he is going to have to run a damn near flawless campaign. Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, Gibbs et al are not only a very formidable team but they have four years of experience.

Another site to watch other than the electoral maps is Intrade which has a decent history of reflecting election outcomes. Political savvy people can bet their real money on elections. I like it because it is a different spin on polls. People who go to this site to bet on politics mostl likely, in aggregate, are knowlegeable about trends and outcomes. It isn't a slam dunk by any means but i think it adds a good additional number to electoral maps and aggregate national polls. As it stands now, the political gamblers have Obama at a 60% chance of winning and Romney at a 36% chance at winning. Personally, I have been looking at Obama at about a 60% chance myself for a while now. In 2008, Obama was at about 65% to McCains 35% on Intrade.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/co...tractId=743474