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  1. #25

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray



    Quote Originally Posted by callahan09 View Post
    Doing a little more specific research (I plan to run more cases than just this, which I will post in the near future), I looked at 1998-2011, wide receivers, drafted in the 6th or 7th round, played college football in ACC (the conference that Streeter played in).

    The results are much more favorable for this specific search. In fact, there is literally only ONE player who qualifies for this search drafted in the 6th round:

    Josh Morgan (Virginia Tech), San Francisco 49ers, 2008-2011, 49 games (32 starts), 131 catches, 1764 yards, 9 TDs

    He had a decent rookie season, a great second and third season, and was off to a great start last year before being put on injured reserve for the rest of the season after 5 games.

    6 other players qualified for my search, from the 7th round. Of them, half contributed at least 1000 receiving yards during their pro careers.

    http://www.pro-football-reference.co...e=acc&show=all

    So the results aren't nearly as dismal for ACC receivers drafted late.
    1. I researched every round from 1st to the 7th. The 7th round bust rate is 89%, while there were more high ceiling success stories(relatively speaking) they are again few and far between.

    2. It is pointless to go past 2009, and even 2009 is pushing it. It skews the numbers because you are flat out guessing on a portion of the data. You can't get a read on a guy who was just drafted in the late rounds after a year...or two....and it is tough even after 3 in some cases and you need to "project" a little bit.

    3. If you want to combine the 6th and 7th rounds, there were 173 players total, and 10 went on to become anything more than a number 3. There were 3 number 1's (all in the 7th round, 2 of them drafted a long time ago), 2 number 2's, and 5 number 3's as I graded them.

    82 of the 173 (47.4%)never caught an NFL pass.

    123 of the 173 (71.1%) never caught more than 10 passes.

    The Bust Rate (153 out of 173) was 88.4%




  2. #26
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    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    I'm not completely buying the "Ray's coaching him up so he'll make it" angle with Streeter. Sure, Ray Lewis can motivate players; working out with Ray can get one into shape; having a guy like Ray around may certainly help a player avoid the off-field traps into which rookies fall. Ultimately, however, Streeter is going to be judged on whether or not he learns the playbook, runs crisp routes, gets separation and can catch. Ray Lewis is a lot of things, but he isn't a WR coach.




  3. #27

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    He looked quick in the tapes I saw.....with a WR you have to look at the QB. Who knows? If he bulks up a little bit, with Torrey on the other side he is going to get some space to wok in. Its a territorial game...
    Way Down South in New Orleans




  4. #28

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by JAB1985 View Post
    not knocking your findings as they certainly make sense, but how many of those guys had those measurables? Guys that do dont fall that far typically, which is the really odd thing about getting him that late. Doesnt mean hes going to be a star, but he certainly has the tools to do so like a 2nd round pick (which he was projected as possibly being) would rather than an ordinary 6th rounder. Theres reason to think hes closer to that 14% success rate than 86% bust rate if only because of that. whether that dilutes your expectations or not, is to each their own.
    Lots of guys have those measurables, but are very raw which is why they are late round picks. Again, they are taken in the the late rounds for a reason, because there is a very small chance that they will make it. And it seems that NFL GM's know what they are doing in scouting with those low success rates.

    Size and speed is only a small portion of what it takes to be a successful WR in the NFL either way. Running precise routes, catching the ball, making route adjustments at the line, and beating press coverage are just as important. Players are graded on all of these things, not just how big and how fast they are.

    I hope Streeter is one of the 14%, but I have to look at the reality of what most late round round picks are and what they amount to which isn't much historically speaking.




  5. #29
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    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    1. I researched every round from 1st to the 7th. The 7th round bust rate is 89%, while there were more high ceiling success stories(relatively speaking) they are again few and far between.

    2. It is pointless to go past 2009, and even 2009 is pushing it. It skews the numbers because you are flat out guessing on a portion of the data. You can't get a read on a guy who was just drafted in the late rounds after a year...or two....and it is tough even after 3 in some cases and you need to "project" a little bit.

    3. If you want to combine the 6th and 7th rounds, there were 173 players total, and 10 went on to become anything more than a number 3. There were 3 number 1's (all in the 7th round, 2 of them drafted a long time ago), 2 number 2's, and 5 number 3's as I graded them.

    82 of the 173 (47.4%)never caught an NFL pass.

    123 of the 173 (71.1%) never caught more than 10 passes.

    The Bust Rate (153 out of 173) was 88.4%
    Another bit of research I've done...

    Tommy Streeter is a tall, fast receiver who played in the ACC. Here are his measurables:

    Draft Season, Name, Height, Weight, 40/Low/High, Vertical, Broad
    2012, Tommy Streeter, 6-5, 219, 4.40/4.30/4.54, 33, 10-05

    Since 2000, only 10 other receivers have been drafted in the 6th round or later who were at least 6'4". Only 2 of them were at least 6'5". Here are the measurables for those 10 players:

    2011, David Ausberry, 6-4, 243, 4.52/4.47/4.59, -, -
    2009, Marko Mitchell, 6-4, 218, 4.43/4.36/4.54, 32, 9-08
    2008, Marcus Henry, 6-4, 212, 4.55/4.46/4.64, 31.5, 10-06
    2008, Chaz Schilens, 6-4, 208, 4.38/4.36/4.48, -, -
    2008, Mario Urrutia, 6-6, 232, 4.59/4.52/4.67, 30, 9-07
    2008, Marcus Monk, 6-4, 222, 4.56/4.50/4.64, 34.5, 9-11
    2007, Jordan Kent, 6-4, 217, 4.49/4.42/4.55, -, -
    2006, Marques Colston 6-4, 225, 4.50/-/-, 37, 10-03
    2004, Clarence Moore, 6-6, 220, 4.55/-/-, 34, 10-02
    2003, Walter Young, 6-4, 214, 4.54/-/-, 39, 10-01

    The two players who could compete with Streeter on size alone, Clarence Moore and Mario Urrutia, were both significantly slower. Streeter's low 40-time was more than 2 whole tenths of a second faster than Urrutia's fastest, and his jumping ability is much better as well.

    All but 2 of these players are significantly worse than Streeter in the speed department.

    Marko Mitchell is only slightly slower and shorter than Streeter, but he played college ball in the Mountain West conference, which since 2001 has only produced 11 drafted wide receivers, only 1 of whom (Steve Smith) has ever actually produced significantly in the NFL, so it's not exactly a conference you expect players to come out of with NFL skills.

    The other is Chaz Schilens, who ironically enough also played in the Mountain West, and he's having the best career so far of any receiver to come from that conference since Steve Smith.

    Streeter, on the other hand, played in the ACC, which has produced 27 drafted receivers since 2001, including Anquan Boldin, Jerricho Cotchery, and Calvin Johnson. 11 of the 27 had at least 100 catches and 1000 yards. That's a 41% rate, versus the 1 out of 11 in the Mountain West (9%).

    So what I'm saying is, a player like Streeter, who has 6'5" size and 4.40 speed, is extremely rare to be drafted in the 6th round or later. It has literally never happened. You have to look at 6'4" players to find some history of that kind of speed ever being drafted this late. And as you can see from my list above, even that is extremely rare. But to have that size and that speed, AND to be a player who played in a conference with a history of feeding the NFL with a high quantity and percentage of very productive players, is truly unprecedented.

    So while you may point out the low success rate of late-drafted receivers, I would point out that receivers of Streeter's caliber have simply never been drafted this low before.




  6. #30

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    Lots of guys have those measurables, but are very raw which is why they are late round picks. Again, they are taken in the the late rounds for a reason, because there is a very small chance that they will make it. And it seems that NFL GM's know what they are doing in scouting with those low success rates.

    Size and speed is only a small portion of what it takes to be a successful WR in the NFL either way. Running precise routes, catching the ball, making route adjustments at the line, and beating press coverage are just as important. Players are graded on all of these things, not just how big and how fast they are.

    I hope Streeter is one of the 14%, but I have to look at the reality of what most late round round picks are and what they amount to which isn't much historically speaking.
    I realize there is more to it than speed/size, id be one of the first to tell you as such, but a raw prospect that isnt so good at such things, can rely on those physical abilities until they do, or dont, learn the finer parts of the position. in other words giving them more of a chance. i disagree with you on the rarity of 6'4+ with 4.3 speed. There isnt many of those guys and they arent usually available late in the draft, even raw ones. Brandon Marshall, TO, even DHB all were extremely raw guys that had that height and speed but all went 3rd round or higher despite it. thats also not taking into account the ones that are drafted early and dont succeed either, which maybe streeter, hill, & quick will or would have fallen under, but my point that they arent typically available late in the draft i believe remains.

    Quote Originally Posted by callahan09 View Post
    So while you may point out the low success rate of late-drafted receivers, I would point out that receivers of Streeter's caliber have simply never been drafted this low before.
    thats what im trying to say, although i would define it as "physical ability" rather than "caliber of WR".. he is raw as a WR, even if he does have the tools to be good.

    Believe your list is missing some though, including our own Justin Harper... 6'4 and ran a 4.58 40.
    Last edited by JAB1985; 05-15-2012 at 01:17 PM.
    -JAB




  7. #31

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by callahan09 View Post
    Another bit of research I've done...

    Tommy Streeter is a tall, fast receiver who played in the ACC. Here are his measurables:

    Draft Season, Name, Height, Weight, 40/Low/High, Vertical, Broad
    2012, Tommy Streeter, 6-5, 219, 4.40/4.30/4.54, 33, 10-05

    Since 2000, only 10 other receivers have been drafted in the 6th round or later who were at least 6'4". Only 2 of them were at least 6'5". Here are the measurables for those 10 players:

    2011, David Ausberry, 6-4, 243, 4.52/4.47/4.59, -, -
    2009, Marko Mitchell, 6-4, 218, 4.43/4.36/4.54, 32, 9-08
    2008, Marcus Henry, 6-4, 212, 4.55/4.46/4.64, 31.5, 10-06
    2008, Chaz Schilens, 6-4, 208, 4.38/4.36/4.48, -, -
    2008, Mario Urrutia, 6-6, 232, 4.59/4.52/4.67, 30, 9-07
    2008, Marcus Monk, 6-4, 222, 4.56/4.50/4.64, 34.5, 9-11
    2007, Jordan Kent, 6-4, 217, 4.49/4.42/4.55, -, -
    2006, Marques Colston 6-4, 225, 4.50/-/-, 37, 10-03
    2004, Clarence Moore, 6-6, 220, 4.55/-/-, 34, 10-02
    2003, Walter Young, 6-4, 214, 4.54/-/-, 39, 10-01

    The two players who could compete with Streeter on size alone, Clarence Moore and Mario Urrutia, were both significantly slower. Streeter's low 40-time was more than 2 whole tenths of a second faster than Urrutia's fastest, and his jumping ability is much better as well.

    All but 2 of these players are significantly worse than Streeter in the speed department.

    Marko Mitchell is only slightly slower and shorter than Streeter, but he played college ball in the Mountain West conference, which since 2001 has only produced 11 drafted wide receivers, only 1 of whom (Steve Smith) has ever actually produced significantly in the NFL, so it's not exactly a conference you expect players to come out of with NFL skills.

    The other is Chaz Schilens, who ironically enough also played in the Mountain West, and he's having the best career so far of any receiver to come from that conference since Steve Smith.

    Streeter, on the other hand, played in the ACC, which has produced 27 drafted receivers since 2001, including Anquan Boldin, Jerricho Cotchery, and Calvin Johnson. 11 of the 27 had at least 100 catches and 1000 yards. That's a 41% rate, versus the 1 out of 11 in the Mountain West (9%).

    So what I'm saying is, a player like Streeter, who has 6'5" size and 4.40 speed, is extremely rare to be drafted in the 6th round or later. It has literally never happened. You have to look at 6'4" players to find some history of that kind of speed ever being drafted this late. And as you can see from my list above, even that is extremely rare. But to have that size and that speed, AND to be a player who played in a conference with a history of feeding the NFL with a high quantity and percentage of very productive players, is truly unprecedented.

    So while you may point out the low success rate of late-drafted receivers, I would point out that receivers of Streeter's caliber have simply never been drafted this low before.
    Once again you seem to think that a receivers skill level/draft position value directly relates to size and speed. It doesn't. That is just ONE area a receiver is graded in out of about five.

    I get that no player has EVER had the measurables that Streeter had in the 6th round (and I don't know that to be true, I would love to go back over my list one day and see but I will take your word for it). Good for him. That begs the question if that was the case why in the world did he not go earlier??

    It also has nothing to do with conference played in, or how many receivers have been produced from said conference (especially trying to include guys like Calvin Johnson and other top picks in the data with 6th and 7th rounders). It has to do with talent. Talent is what gets production, talent is what gets you drafted whether you are 5'10 running a 4.5 or 6'5 running a 4.4.

    You have to isolate by round, not by anything else. You are just mixing and matching to try to find a reason that Streeter will be different by including high round picks and all types of other non starters such as what conference he played in. That means nothing.

    His talent level coming out was of the 6th round value, as decided by 32 NFL GM's. These guys have a track record of identifying who has the most liklihood to make it and the risk level they attach to a certain player which translates into a draft grade. (There is a sliding scale of success rates from the 1st round right through the 7th) If he was this once in a generation 6th rounder.....he wouldn't have gone in the 6th round he would have gone higher.

    The numbers are what they are.
    Last edited by TheJoeFlaccoShow; 05-15-2012 at 01:22 PM.




  8. #32

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by JAB1985 View Post
    as much as i liked Hill, even I didnt think Streeter was that far behind him. Really it was just a gut feeling that i had about Hill, but to get him in the 6th is just ridiculous. im still amazed he fell that far, especially when you consider some teams are just taking chances on project WRs in rounds before that, why not the 6'5 39" vertical with 4.4 speed? His hands are huge so really its just a matter of getting him to focus on the catch, which im hoping our WR coach can do (probably a bit optimistic considering our WR coach).
    Nail, meet hammer. Exactly my thought. If there was ever a time to take a chance on a guy, This is the perfect guy. His ceiling is probably higher than Hill's becuase he's really only gotten the opportunity to be a starting receiver one year in college.

    I still think it will take a lot of coaching, and some more mental toughness on his end to really get him to play well, but man if you want a project player this is the perfect kind of guy you want. A guy with all the physical tools in the world, who hasn't' scratched the surface of how good he can be, to get him in the 6th adds more to the Legend of Oz.
    Lardarius "The predator" Webb





  9. #33
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    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by JAB1985 View Post
    I realize there is more to it than speed/size, id be one of the first to tell you as such, but a raw prospect that isnt so good at such things, can rely on those physical abilities until they do, or dont, learn the finer parts of the position. in other words giving them more of a chance. i disagree with you on the rarity of 6'4+ with 4.3 speed. There isnt many of those guys and they arent usually available late in the draft, even raw ones. Brandon Marshall, TO, even DHB all were extremely raw guys that had that height and speed but all went 3rd round or higher despite it. thats also not taking into account the ones that are drafted early and dont succeed either, which maybe streeter, hill, & quick will or would have fallen under, but my point that they arent typically available late in the draft i believe remains.



    thats what im trying to say, although i would define it as "physical ability" rather than "caliber of WR".. he is raw as a WR, even if he does have the tools to be good.

    Believe your list is missing some though, including our own Justin Harper... 6'4 and ran a 4.58 40.
    I used the NFL.com full draft history page to compile my list. They list Justin Harper at 6'3".

    http://www.nfl.com/player/justinharper/760/profile

    http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/ful...&type=position




  10. #34
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    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    Once again you seem to think that a receivers skill level/draft position value directly relates to size and speed. It doesn't. That is just ONE area a receiver is graded in out of about five.

    I get that no player has EVER had the measurables that Streeter had in the 6th round (and I don't know that to be true, I would love to go back over my list one day and see but I will take your word for it). Good for him. That begs the question if that was the case why in the world did he not go earlier??

    It also has nothing to do with conference played in, or how many receivers have been produced from said conference (especially trying to include guys like Calvin Johnson and other top picks in the data with 6th and 7th rounders). It has to do with talent. Talent is what gets production, talent is what gets you drafted whether you are 5'10 running a 4.5 or 6'5 running a 4.4.

    You have to isolate by round, not by anything else. You are just mixing and matching to try to find a reason that Streeter will be different by including high round picks and all types of other non starters such as what conference he played in. That means nothing.

    His talent level coming out was of the 6th round value, as decided by 32 NFL GM's. These guys have a track record of identifying who has the most liklihood to make it and the risk level they attach to a certain player which translates into a draft grade. (There is a sliding scale of success rates from the 1st round right through the 7th) If he was this once in a generation 6th rounder.....he wouldn't have gone in the 6th round he would have gone higher.

    The numbers are what they are.
    I understand what you're saying, I'm just trying to say that while it's true that 6th and 7th rounders rarely have success, it's also rare for a 6th or 7th rounder to have the measurables that Streeter has. And conference does have a little something to do with it, because if you play ball in a more competitive conference than you're more likely to have some skills that already translate better to the NFL versus someone from a weak conference. All I'm trying to say is that you can give me 180 or however many it was players who fit a broad criteria, and tell me something about the common case among them, and then I can pare down that list to 10 players who actually have something in common with Streeter besides just his draft selection number, and tell you why it makes more sense to compare him against those guys than the overall number of players which includes mostly guys in the 6'0" range and smaller. Streeter is taller, faster, and has experience playing in a more competitive conference than pretty much every 6th or 7th round pick from the past. So I think it's not a complete leap of faith to believe he'll turn out better than an average 6th/7th rounder.




  11. #35

    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    Quote Originally Posted by callahan09 View Post
    I used the NFL.com full draft history page to compile my list. They list Justin Harper at 6'3".

    http://www.nfl.com/player/justinharper/760/profile

    http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/ful...&type=position
    fair enough, seems it depends on how they round up as i think his actual measurement was 6'3-1/2".
    -JAB




  12. #36
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    Re: Streeter working out with and learning from Ray

    I understand everything being said here. And I can see all sides.
    But, I think Streeter is in one of the best possible situations coming here.

    First thing that dropped him down the boards is that he needs work.
    He is a junior that could have used the final year to season, etc.
    Ok, that's fine, he's raw.

    But coming here with the physical makeup he has, add in Joe being able to throw a nice deep ball, add in Torrey Smith taking the number 1 opposing corner away, adding in Boldin in the slot, taking the second best corner, Streeter could come in by game one and run deep routes stretching the field.
    IF he has any kind of hands, it doesn't matter how old he is, how much playing time he got in college, what round he was drafted in, none of that matters if he can catch Joe's long throws. Then opposing defenses will have to account for him. In the meantime, we will have Jacoby Jones and Doss here, too.

    The possibility of a passing offense that FORCES opposing defenses to defend every inch of the field might very well be under contract, here in Baltimore.

    Everything to help Streeter succeed here, is here, and Ray helping him is something no one should underestimate.
    He is helping him with conditioning and mental toughness which could translate into confidence and production.
    Not holding my breath, just a low key excitement right now thinking about the possible tremendous upside.




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