Philly extend up LeSean McCoy

[leachisabeast]

dont forget CJ2K, he might have rushed for more yards but hes no slouch in the passing game. Sproles might not be as good of a runner, but again, great receiving RB. I think Mathews has shown the ability and likely will be on that tier sooner than later. I dont think you can leave Johnson and Sproles off as far as best recieving RBs though, theyre atleast comparable if not outright better. There will be young backs from this class that show the ability as well, whether pierce is one of those is yet to be seen.

Don't talk to me about "CJ2K" after this past season. No way in hell are any of those backs "outright better" as a receiver. Ray Rice has been more productive over the last 3 years than all of them.

2011 receiving stats:
Ray Rice- 76 Receptions, 704 yards, 9.3 yards per catch
Darren Sproles- 86 receptions, 710 yards, 8.3 yards per catch
Ryan Matthews- 50 receptions, 455 yards, 9.1 yards per catch
CJ2K- 57 receptions, 418 yards, 7.3 yards per catch

2010 stats:
Ray Rice- 63 receptions, 556 yards, 8.8 yards per catch
Darren Sproles- 59 receptions, 520 yards, 8.8 yards per catch
Ryan Matthews- 22 receptions, 145 yards, 6.6 yards per catch
CJ2K- 44 receptions, 245 yards, 5.6 yards per catch

2009 stats:
Ray Rice- 78 receptions, 702 yards, 9 yards per catch
Darren Sproles- 45 receptions, 497 yards, 11 yards per catch
CJ2K- 50 receptions, 503 yards, 10.1 yards per catch

Total receiving yards:
Rice- 1962 yards
Sproles- 1727 yards
CJ2K- 1166 yards

[JAB1985]

Neither one of those players has proven it for the past 3 years, so to me Rice still has a big edge over any of them.

entitled to your opinion, but i disagree. Sproles had more yards than Rice just last year as well as averaging nearly 600 yards a season the past 3 seasons. Johnson has been less consistent over that time but imo, its more to do with the inconsistency of the offense more so than an inability to be part of the passing game. Hes comparable to rice in receiving ability and elusiveness in space after the catch. Hes a 500 yard guy that happened to struggle on a team with qb problems.

[blah3]

Wrong, wrong and more wrong but I am Riced out these days and don't feel like arguing. It would be a rather easy argument but there won't be an changing of minds around here so it is pointless.

McCoy has never and will never be on the same level as Rice, and just got 9 million a year.

That is why Rice is in line for 10 million a year much to the dismay of everyone in Baltimore for some crazy reason.

Gonna have to put the board on suicide watch when early July rolls around and Rice has a deal a little more than Foster and definitely more than McCoy.

You are wearing some purple tinted glasses or smoking something is you don't think McCoy is every bit the back Rice is.

[leachisabeast]

entitled to your opinion, but i disagree. Sproles had more yards than Rice just last year as well as averaging nearly 600 yards a season the past 3 seasons. Johnson has been less consistent over that time but imo, its more to do with the inconsistency of the offense more so than an inability to be part of the passing game. Hes comparable to rice in receiving ability and elusiveness in space after the catch. Hes a 500 yard guy that happened to struggle on a team with qb problems.

You are wrong, read my stats. Sure Sproles had a few more yards than Rice in 2011, but also had more receptions. Who cares about 6 more yards anyway, Rice has out produced both over the last 3 seasons.

[srobert96]

Don't talk to me about "CJ2K" after this past season. No way in hell are any of those backs "outright better" as a receiver. Ray Rice has been more productive over the last 3 years than all of them.

2011 receiving stats:
Ray Rice- 76 Receptions, 704 yards, 9.3 yards per catch
Darren Sproles- 86 receptions, 710 yards, 8.3 yards per catch
Ryan Matthews- 50 receptions, 455 yards, 9.1 yards per catch
CJ2K- 57 receptions, 418 yards, 7.3 yards per catch

2010 stats:
Ray Rice- 63 receptions, 556 yards, 8.8 yards per catch
Darren Sproles- 59 receptions, 520 yards, 8.8 yards per catch
Ryan Matthews- 22 receptions, 145 yards, 6.6 yards per catch
CJ2K- 44 receptions, 245 yards, 5.6 yards per catch

2009 stats:
Ray Rice- 78 receptions, 702 yards, 9 yards per catch
Darren Sproles- 45 receptions, 497 yards, 11 yards per catch
CJ2K- 50 receptions, 503 yards, 10.1 yards per catch

Total receiving yards:
Rice- 1962 yards
Sproles- 1727 yards
CJ2K- 1166 yards

Stats can be misleading when trying to compare players. If you put some of those backs in the Ravens offense their receiving stats would go up significantly. Rice's stats are inflated because of how he is used in Cam's offense. Rice's stats may be better on another team. Maybe his running totals and TDs go up if he is in Houston.

[JAB1985]

You are wrong, read my stats. Sure Sproles had a few more yards than Rice in 2011, but also had more receptions. Who cares about 6 more yards anyway, Rice has out produced both over the last 3 seasons.

nice stats but that wasnt really my point. receiving ability doesnt necessarily mean stats. Those guys i listed are every bit as good of receiving RBs. even by comparing stats they are comparable, which is what i was pointing out as you said only those other backs were. Ray Rice only had 27 receptions in college, so did he not have the ability to be pass catching RB? obviously he did and does to this day. Those RBs can catch the ball well regardless if they have better stats or not and thats the only point i was making. CJ2K might not have had a great year last year, but he can catch the ball and produced over 400 yards in that category on a bad team and a bad year. Rice is a good Receiver at RB, but hes not the only back in the league that is. Even Peterson really stepped up his ability this past season whether stats show it or not. To be great you have to be complete, so the top backs are all going to have that ability. If youre just saying the only ones that can compare production wise, than id still argue that sproles deserves to be in that conversation but there isnt many RBs getting 600+ yards (in which case some of the ones on your own list wouldnt be comparable) and really thats scheme dependent as well. Ability alone, i stand by my post.

[ravensnhokies]

Good post, I totally agree with you, but not entirely sure if that's what ravenshokies meant. "Pierce would be Cameron's entire offense if he was the featured back". I'm not sure if Pierce is good enough yet to be Cams whole offense, and I do think if Rice was playing for the Giants, they would be using Rice a lot more than what they use Bradshaw or Jacobs.

Also don't forget that after the catch Rice is great in space and beats a hell a lot of defenders, I don't care if Rice is targeted more in the passing game than any RB in the league, he is one of the most dangerous weapons after the catch. Now if you put a good back like Lynch or Frank Gore there, I don't think they would be as good as a receiver even if they where targeted as much as Rice is in the passing game. The only backs that can compare to Rice as a receiver are Foster, Forte, MJD, and McCoy right now IMO.

My gist was basically how bmorecareful eloquently put it. Like my RB's wet dream to be in Cam's offense comment.. the featured RB is going to get a huge amount of opportunities running it and catching the ball. Compared to most of today's NFL offense schemes, it is substantially more opportunities for the featured back. I wasn't commenting on whether Pierce could match Rice's production... I simply dont know. I have faith that he will be pretty damn good b/c Oz and Eric traded up to get him in the 3rd round.

I like Rice... a lot... but I dont like him enough to screw up our cap. A CJ, AP type contract is just plain stupid, and winning organizations just dont do that. Foster's and McCoy's contract set the framework for Rice's deal. If he wants a token $1-1.5M more guaranteed... fine, but no more. From Tony's story and other reports, supposedly the Ravens have offered that, but Rice's agent is holding out for the CJ/AP money. If Rice's continues this hold out into training camp, he will not be in good football shape in the 1st portion of the year, so ultimately its a lose-lose situation.

[Dirt1]

My gist was basically how bmorecareful eloquently put it. Like my RB's wet dream to be in Cam's offense comment.. the featured RB is going to get a huge amount of opportunities running it and catching the ball. Compared to most of today's NFL offense schemes, it is substantially more opportunities for the featured back. I wasn't commenting on whether Pierce could match Rice's production... I simply dont know. I have faith that he will be pretty damn good b/c Oz and Eric traded up to get him in the 3rd round.

I like Rice... a lot... but I dont like him enough to screw up our cap. A CJ, AP type contract is just plain stupid, and winning organizations just dont do that. Foster's and McCoy's contract set the framework for Rice's deal. If he wants a token $1-1.5M more guaranteed... fine, but no more. From Tony's story and other reports, supposedly the Ravens have offered that, but Rice's agent is holding out for the CJ/AP money. If Rice's continues this hold out into training camp, he will not be in good football shape in the 1st portion of the year, so ultimately its a lose-lose situation.

I like Ray Rice a lot as well, but I think the Ravens are ready and willing to either sign him to a Foster/McCoy deal or move on from him. Everyone is replaceable. I would take a similar stand with Flacco, although QBs are harder to find. The Ravens are not going to overpay and screw their cap up for years to come, nor should they.

[bmorecareful]

I like Ray Rice a lot as well, but I think the Ravens are ready and willing to either sign him to a Foster/McCoy deal or move on from him. Everyone is replaceable. I would take a similar stand with Flacco, although QBs are harder to find. The Ravens are not going to overpay and screw their cap up for years to come, nor should they.

And this is the entire discussion in a nutshell. I'm confused as to why some of the more foam-at-the-mouth type posters on here think we don't like Rice for some reason. The reality is that as you say, everyone is replaceable, and it's not about Rice personally (or anyone else personally.) It would be HARD to replace Rice, it would be HARDER STILL to replace Flacco, but the team has to come first. No one player can hold a team hostage. When they try to, you do what the Bengals did with Palmer last year (I know his holdout was for different reasons.) You find your replacement and you move on as best you can.

If Rice wants AP money, he's not going to get it and the team is better off without him than with him. If Flacco wants Manning/Brady/Brees money, he's not going to get it and the team is better off without him than with him. I'm sorry, but you have to play hardball with these guys sometimes because you know they're going to play hardball back.

Not to go off on a tangent here, but in so many areas of life anymore you're seeing the term "compromise" redefined to mean "you do what I want." There was an article in the news recently about a newly elected politician foaming at the mouth about what he's gonna do when he gets to Washington... and he came right out and said "sure, we'll compromise, but compromise means they agree to what we want!" You don't get far in society with that kind of perspective, whether it's business, politics, or whatever. But that seems like where we're headed.

[Haloti92]

Here's a blog I wrote a few months ago comparing Rice and Foster and kind of outlining the overall worth if you consider Arian Foster to be the best RB in the NFL currently (as I do).

http://profootballxo.blogspot.com/20...ice-worth.html

I only compared the last 2 years because Foster has really only been a starter/consistent contributor for the past 2 seasons. If hacks like Jamison Hensley did some research they'd know that too and wouldn't look like a moron.

Foster played all 16 games in 2010. In fact he had more than 13 touches in every game but one, where he had exactly 13. Rice has had 4 games with 13 or less touches over the two years.

Foster has missed 3 games over two years (3 games in 2011), not 6, imo to be fair. And those 3 were missed because he got injured. It is easy to argue that when you give him so many touches per game (too many touches), he will miss games or time (unlike Rice over the past 2 years). In which case you can't just extrapolate what he would have done had he gotten the same high number of per-game touches for all the games. In short, I think one could argue there is sort of a maximum number of touches or rate of touches that can be achieved, too many or too fast will likely lead to the need for a rest (minor injury).


Also, and this actually bolsters your main point, but I thought I would point it out for your blog. You say the scoring percentage of each is calculated using "total offensive points," but it looks like your denominator used total team points (including D and STs). Over the last two years the Ravens have scored 9 D/ST TDs to Houston's 3. The denominators that should be used are 672 for the Ravens and 750 for Houston. In addition, Rice threw for 1 TD, and his total should be 22 TDs. And lastly, you only gave Foster 6 pts per TD, whereas you gave Rice 7, which hurts Foster a lot. Here is what I get when using offensive team points, 7 pts per TD for player, and adjusting the other stuff:

Rice 22 TDs, 154 pts of team's 672 pts = 22.91% of teams offensive points.
Foster 30 TDs, 210 pts of team's 750 pts = 28.00% of teams offensive points.

The main "knock" I have about Foster when looking at his stats is that Tate absolutely crushed it as well, and did so on extremely statistically significant number of touches (188 total, 175 rushes). He was similarly efficient as Foster. There are generally two ways to explain this, 1) their system is such that all RBs look better than they are (or would on another team) while in it, a la the Denver Broncos with TD, Gary, Anderson, Portis, etc, and/or 2) Tate is actually a top notch NFL RB trapped behind another top notch RB. Either or both could be true. I think it is a combination of both, but regardless, I think it takes a bit of luster off of Foster's statistical accomplishments (not much, but a little).

[bmorecareful]

Foster played all 16 games in 2010. In fact he had more than 13 touches in every game but one, where he had exactly 13. Rice has had 4 games with 13 or less touches over the two years.

Foster has missed 3 games over two years (3 games in 2011), not 6, imo to be fair. And those 3 were missed because he got injured. It is easy to argue that when you give him so many touches per game (too many touches), he will miss games or time (unlike Rice over the past 2 years). In which case you can't just extrapolate what he would have done had he gotten the same high number of per-game touches for all the games. In short, I think one could argue there is sort of a maximum number of touches or rate of touches that can be achieved, too many or too fast will likely lead to the need for a rest (minor injury).


Also, and this actually bolsters your main point, but I thought I would point it out for your blog. You say the scoring percentage of each is calculated using "total offensive points," but it looks like your denominator used total team points (including D and STs). Over the last two years the Ravens have scored 9 D/ST TDs to Houston's 3. The denominators that should be used are 672 for the Ravens and 750 for Houston. In addition, Rice threw for 1 TD, and his total should be 22 TDs. And lastly, you only gave Foster 6 pts per TD, whereas you gave Rice 7, which hurts Foster a lot. Here is what I get when using offensive team points, 7 pts per TD for player, and adjusting the other stuff:

Rice 22 TDs, 154 pts of team's 672 pts = 22.91% of teams offensive points.
Foster 30 TDs, 210 pts of team's 750 pts = 28.00% of teams offensive points.

The main "knock" I have about Foster when looking at his stats is that Tate absolutely crushed it as well, and did so on extremely statistically significant number of touches (188 total, 175 rushes). He was similarly efficient as Foster. There are generally two ways to explain this, 1) their system is such that all RBs look better than they are (or would on another team) while in it, a la the Denver Broncos with TD, Gary, Anderson, Portis, etc, and/or 2) Tate is actually a top notch NFL RB trapped behind another top notch RB. Either or both could be true. I think it is a combination of both, but regardless, I think it takes a bit of luster off of Foster's statistical accomplishments (not much, but a little).

Your's is a quality post. There are obviously many layers to peel back in this debate and bringing the discussion down to the level of touches gets you the closest to what we're actually trying to measure--on-field ability.

Regarding Ben Tate vs. Foster, I haven't watched every snap Tate has ever played, but he certainly grades out to my eyes as an extremely capable back. I have read in many credible sources (Rotoworld, Pro Football Weekly, etc.) that talent evaluators in the league/close to the league believe Tate is as good a back as Foster or possibly better, FWIW.

I don't think anyone would argue that Houston is anything but a great environment for RB success. Then again, we run the same blocking scheme as the Texans, so could one make the argument that Rice had his best year under a system that made him look better than he is? I would not make that argument personally because my eyes tell me differently, but causality is a very difficult thing to prove one way or another.

[GOTA]

I like Ray Rice a lot as well, but I think the Ravens are ready and willing to either sign him to a Foster/McCoy deal or move on from him. Everyone is replaceable. I would take a similar stand with Flacco, although QBs are harder to find. The Ravens are not going to overpay and screw their cap up for years to come, nor should they.

We all know that's how Ozzie is looking at it too.

[mommathurgoesthatman]

We all know that's how Ozzie is looking at it too.

Ozzie is in a tough spot. We need Flacco and Rice to even have a respectable offense. Flacco hasnt prove he can carry a team thru the season so is he a franchise QB? We saw flashes here and there but no consistency. Can we depend on Flacco for the next 4-5 years to carry the Ravens? If Ozzie doesnt think so he may want to keep Ray Rice because without Rice our offense will become Flat. Rice has the ability to make plays and pick up first downs for us. Money is going to be a big factor in determing what Ozzie would do.

Flacco has to prove he can carry this team this year if not we cant afford to let Rice walk. I guarantee you take Rice out the line up Flacco numbers will drop.

[Dirt1]

Ozzie is in a tough spot. We need Flacco and Rice to even have a respectable offense. Flacco hasnt prove he can carry a team thru the season so is he a franchise QB? We saw flashes here and there but no consistency. Can we depend on Flacco for the next 4-5 years to carry the Ravens? If Ozzie doesnt think so he may want to keep Ray Rice because without Rice our offense will become Flat. Rice has the ability to make plays and pick up first downs for us. Money is going to be a big factor in determing what Ozzie would do.

Flacco has to prove he can carry this team this year if not we cant afford to let Rice walk. I guarantee you take Rice out the line up Flacco numbers will drop.

That also depends on how confident Ozzie is in his and his scouts' ability to find a replacement for Ray Rice. Rice was a second round pick. He is a very good RB, but I think Ozzie feels that he can find someone else could could do a credible job if he had to. The preference is of course to sign Ray Rice long-term, but I don't think that the Ravens offense will be crippled if Rice were to leave.

[mfdoom42]

"Much" better? Wow ok.

Do you watch Eagles games at all? Again, I love Ray Rice and want him in Baltimore on a long-term contract, but LeSean McCoy is a more explosive and powerful rusher who is more consistent at gaining solid yardage up the middle. Rice is a better receiver and breaks off more big plays, but McCoy is a better overall rusher and blocker while also being adequate as a receiving threat.

[GOTA]

Ozzie is in a tough spot. We need Flacco and Rice to even have a respectable offense. Flacco hasnt prove he can carry a team thru the season so is he a franchise QB? We saw flashes here and there but no consistency. Can we depend on Flacco for the next 4-5 years to carry the Ravens? If Ozzie doesnt think so he may want to keep Ray Rice because without Rice our offense will become Flat. Rice has the ability to make plays and pick up first downs for us. Money is going to be a big factor in determing what Ozzie would do.

Flacco has to prove he can carry this team this year if not we cant afford to let Rice walk. I guarantee you take Rice out the line up Flacco numbers will drop.

I don't disagree with you about Flacco but he is going to be here the next 5 years. That's a lock. Flacco doesn't have to prove anything at this point to get his deal done. Hopefully if Rice does walk next season Cam goes with him and they hire someone who knows how to move an offense without putting everything through 1 running back.

[leachisabeast]

Do you watch Eagles games at all? Again, I love Ray Rice and want him in Baltimore on a long-term contract, but LeSean McCoy is a more explosive and powerful rusher who is more consistent at gaining solid yardage up the middle. Rice is a better receiver and breaks off more big plays, but McCoy is a better overall rusher and blocker while also being adequate as a receiving threat.

Yeah I do watch Eagles games, but I just think Rice is a better overall back.

[mommathurgoesthatman]

That also depends on how confident Ozzie is in his and his scouts' ability to find a replacement for Ray Rice. Rice was a second round pick. He is a very good RB, but I think Ozzie feels that he can find someone else could could do a credible job if he had to. The preference is of course to sign Ray Rice long-term, but I don't think that the Ravens offense will be crippled if Rice were to leave.

I would agree with you if Cam Cameron wasnt our OC. His scheme is so black and white. Ray Rice is the only play maker we have on our offense. This is why he is our offense. Joe and the WR's and TE's are all under the control of Cam play calling. Im afraid to see what we would look like withouth Ray Rice. I was scared for our offense when Ray Rice miss games his rookie season when he got hurt because of his playmaking skills.

[mommathurgoesthatman]

I don't disagree with you about Flacco but he is going to be here the next 5 years. That's a lock. Flacco doesn't have to prove anything at this point to get his deal done. Hopefully if Rice does walk next season Cam goes with him and they hire someone who knows how to move an offense without putting everything through 1 running back.

Agreed but seriously if Flacco is a lock to be our franchise QB than why did Cam stick around another year? I know for a fact Cam will not be here for the next 5 years(I hope) so why keep wasting time with him? That tells you a lot about who is calling the shots.

[HoustonRaven]

I would agree with you if Cam Cameron wasnt our OC. His scheme is so black and white. Ray Rice is the only play maker we have on our offense. This is why he is our offense. Joe and the WR's and TE's are all under the control of Cam play calling. Im afraid to see what we would look like withouth Ray Rice. I was scared for our offense when Ray Rice miss games his rookie season when he got hurt because of his playmaking skills.

We went 4 for 5 while he was out, including two playoff wins.