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  1. #37
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    Re: Philly extend up LeSean McCoy



    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    No, what he was saying is that if Pierce were the starting RB he would be targeted on a similar % of plays as Rice because of the nature of our offense--and that would likely lead to him posting big numbers, not necessarily on the level of Rice but big nonetheless.

    No matter who we have at RB, he (or they) are going to be running the ball a lot and catching the ball a lot. Our offense is built around around a few very simple concepts: 1) run the ball between the tackles, 2) send the WRs on deep sideline routes, 3) if the deep routes aren't there, throw the ball short to the back or TE. If we're not running the ball with the RB, there's a pretty high chance we're going to be throwing it to him particularly because our WRs have historically not been very good at getting deep (Mason could work the sidelines with the best of them, but not so much on the deeper routes.)

    If you look at the pass target % over the last few years, our offense is throwing a much higher percentage of passes to RBs, but not all teams do that. Some teams, like the Patriots, Packers, Giants, Steelers, etc. throw nowhere near as frequently to the backs as we do because their schemes are much more sophisticated and balanced.

    That has always been the Cam Cameron offense. Obviously it has worked great when he had superb RBs like Tomlinson and Rice, but even in 2007 when the Dolphins had crap at RB they were still throwing tons of balls to backs. Cam Cameron's offense is run the exact same way no matter what 11 players are on the field. Now, if Rice were to go down, I don't think Pierce/Allen/Berry could produce anywhere near as much as Rice, but they would still be targeted plenty.
    Good post.
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  2. #38
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    Re: Philly extend up LeSean McCoy

    Here's a blog I wrote a few months ago comparing Rice and Foster and kind of outlining the overall worth if you consider Arian Foster to be the best RB in the NFL currently (as I do).

    http://profootballxo.blogspot.com/20...ice-worth.html

    I only compared the last 2 years because Foster has really only been a starter/consistent contributor for the past 2 seasons. If hacks like Jamison Hensley did some research they'd know that too and wouldn't look like a moron.

    Baltimore's offensive production - 2,054 plays| 10,585 total yards| 735 total points.
    Rice's total offensive contribution (32 regular season games) - 737 total contributing plays [rushes + receptions]| 3,842 total yards| 147 total points [21 total TD's].
    Value to offense - 35.8% of total plays| 36.3% of total yards| 20% of total offensive points.

    Houston's offensive production - 2,075 plays| 12,140 total yards| 771 total points.
    Foster's total offensive contribution (26 regular season games) - 724 total contributing plays [rushes + receptions]| 4,061 total yards| 180 total points [30 total TD's].
    Value to offense - 34.89% of total plays| 33.5% of total yards| 23.4% of total offensive points.

    If we were to break it down even further we would see that Rice accounted for 19% of the receiving yards, 63% of the rushes, 67% of the rushing yards, 65% of the rushing TD's, and 9% of the passing TD's. Essentially, Ray Rice is 1/3 of the entire offensive production over the past two seasons. When we look at Foster we find that he accounted for 63% of the rushes, 16% of the passing yards, 63% of the rushing yards, 68% of the rushing TD's, and 9% of the passing TD's. While Rice has the edge on the ratio of rushing yardage and receiving yards, Foster has more points scored, more rushing yards, and more total yards from scrimmage in 6 less games than Rice. It's fair to say that if Foster had played or received significant snaps in those 6 games he'd be substantially farther ahead than Rice.
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  3. #39
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    Re: Philly extend up LeSean McCoy

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    No, what he was saying is that if Pierce were the starting RB he would be targeted on a similar % of plays as Rice because of the nature of our offense--and that would likely lead to him posting big numbers, not necessarily on the level of Rice but big nonetheless.

    No matter who we have at RB, he (or they) are going to be running the ball a lot and catching the ball a lot. Our offense is built around around a few very simple concepts: 1) run the ball between the tackles, 2) send the WRs on deep sideline routes, 3) if the deep routes aren't there, throw the ball short to the back or TE. If we're not running the ball with the RB, there's a pretty high chance we're going to be throwing it to him particularly because our WRs have historically not been very good at getting deep (Mason could work the sidelines with the best of them, but not so much on the deeper routes.)

    If you look at the pass target % over the last few years, our offense is throwing a much higher percentage of passes to RBs, but not all teams do that. Some teams, like the Patriots, Packers, Giants, Steelers, etc. throw nowhere near as frequently to the backs as we do because their schemes are much more sophisticated and balanced.

    That has always been the Cam Cameron offense. Obviously it has worked great when he had superb RBs like Tomlinson and Rice, but even in 2007 when the Dolphins had crap at RB they were still throwing tons of balls to backs. Cam Cameron's offense is run the exact same way no matter what 11 players are on the field. Now, if Rice were to go down, I don't think Pierce/Allen/Berry could produce anywhere near as much as Rice, but they would still be targeted plenty.
    Good post, I totally agree with you, but not entirely sure if that's what ravenshokies meant. "Pierce would be Cameron's entire offense if he was the featured back". I'm not sure if Pierce is good enough yet to be Cams whole offense, and I do think if Rice was playing for the Giants, they would be using Rice a lot more than what they use Bradshaw or Jacobs.

    Also don't forget that after the catch Rice is great in space and beats a hell a lot of defenders, I don't care if Rice is targeted more in the passing game than any RB in the league, he is one of the most dangerous weapons after the catch. Now if you put a good back like Lynch or Frank Gore there, I don't think they would be as good as a receiver even if they where targeted as much as Rice is in the passing game. The only backs that can compare to Rice as a receiver are Foster, Forte, MJD, and McCoy right now IMO.




  4. #40

    Re: Philly extend up LeSean McCoy

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    The only backs that can compare to Rice as a receiver are Foster, Forte, MJD, and McCoy right now IMO.
    dont forget CJ2K, he might have rushed for more yards but hes no slouch in the passing game. Sproles might not be as good of a runner, but again, great receiving RB. I think Mathews has shown the ability and likely will be on that tier sooner than later. I dont think you can leave Johnson and Sproles off as far as best recieving RBs though, theyre atleast comparable if not outright better. There will be young backs from this class that show the ability as well, whether pierce is one of those is yet to be seen.
    -JAB




  5. #41
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    Re: Philly extend up LeSean McCoy

    Quote Originally Posted by JAB1985 View Post
    dont forget CJ2K, he might have rushed for more yards but hes no slouch in the passing game. Sproles might not be as good of a runner, but again, great receiving RB. I think Mathews has shown the ability and likely will be on that tier sooner than later. I dont think you can leave Johnson and Sproles off as far as best recieving RBs though, theyre atleast comparable if not outright better. There will be young backs from this class that show the ability as well, whether pierce is one of those is yet to be seen.
    Don't talk to me about "CJ2K" after this past season. No way in hell are any of those backs "outright better" as a receiver. Ray Rice has been more productive over the last 3 years than all of them.

    2011 receiving stats:
    Ray Rice- 76 Receptions, 704 yards, 9.3 yards per catch
    Darren Sproles- 86 receptions, 710 yards, 8.3 yards per catch
    Ryan Matthews- 50 receptions, 455 yards, 9.1 yards per catch
    CJ2K- 57 receptions, 418 yards, 7.3 yards per catch

    2010 stats:
    Ray Rice- 63 receptions, 556 yards, 8.8 yards per catch
    Darren Sproles- 59 receptions, 520 yards, 8.8 yards per catch
    Ryan Matthews- 22 receptions, 145 yards, 6.6 yards per catch
    CJ2K- 44 receptions, 245 yards, 5.6 yards per catch

    2009 stats:
    Ray Rice- 78 receptions, 702 yards, 9 yards per catch
    Darren Sproles- 45 receptions, 497 yards, 11 yards per catch
    CJ2K- 50 receptions, 503 yards, 10.1 yards per catch

    Total receiving yards:
    Rice- 1962 yards
    Sproles- 1727 yards
    CJ2K- 1166 yards
    Last edited by leachisabeast; 05-18-2012 at 09:39 AM. Reason: Added more stats




  6. #42

    Re: Philly extend up LeSean McCoy

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    Neither one of those players has proven it for the past 3 years, so to me Rice still has a big edge over any of them.
    entitled to your opinion, but i disagree. Sproles had more yards than Rice just last year as well as averaging nearly 600 yards a season the past 3 seasons. Johnson has been less consistent over that time but imo, its more to do with the inconsistency of the offense more so than an inability to be part of the passing game. Hes comparable to rice in receiving ability and elusiveness in space after the catch. Hes a 500 yard guy that happened to struggle on a team with qb problems.
    -JAB




  7. #43

    Re: Philly extend up LeSean McCoy

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow View Post
    Wrong, wrong and more wrong but I am Riced out these days and don't feel like arguing. It would be a rather easy argument but there won't be an changing of minds around here so it is pointless.

    McCoy has never and will never be on the same level as Rice, and just got 9 million a year.

    That is why Rice is in line for 10 million a year much to the dismay of everyone in Baltimore for some crazy reason.

    Gonna have to put the board on suicide watch when early July rolls around and Rice has a deal a little more than Foster and definitely more than McCoy.
    You are wearing some purple tinted glasses or smoking something is you don't think McCoy is every bit the back Rice is.




  8. #44
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    Re: Philly extend up LeSean McCoy

    Quote Originally Posted by JAB1985 View Post
    entitled to your opinion, but i disagree. Sproles had more yards than Rice just last year as well as averaging nearly 600 yards a season the past 3 seasons. Johnson has been less consistent over that time but imo, its more to do with the inconsistency of the offense more so than an inability to be part of the passing game. Hes comparable to rice in receiving ability and elusiveness in space after the catch. Hes a 500 yard guy that happened to struggle on a team with qb problems.
    You are wrong, read my stats. Sure Sproles had a few more yards than Rice in 2011, but also had more receptions. Who cares about 6 more yards anyway, Rice has out produced both over the last 3 seasons.




  9. #45

    Re: Philly extend up LeSean McCoy

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    Don't talk to me about "CJ2K" after this past season. No way in hell are any of those backs "outright better" as a receiver. Ray Rice has been more productive over the last 3 years than all of them.

    2011 receiving stats:
    Ray Rice- 76 Receptions, 704 yards, 9.3 yards per catch
    Darren Sproles- 86 receptions, 710 yards, 8.3 yards per catch
    Ryan Matthews- 50 receptions, 455 yards, 9.1 yards per catch
    CJ2K- 57 receptions, 418 yards, 7.3 yards per catch

    2010 stats:
    Ray Rice- 63 receptions, 556 yards, 8.8 yards per catch
    Darren Sproles- 59 receptions, 520 yards, 8.8 yards per catch
    Ryan Matthews- 22 receptions, 145 yards, 6.6 yards per catch
    CJ2K- 44 receptions, 245 yards, 5.6 yards per catch

    2009 stats:
    Ray Rice- 78 receptions, 702 yards, 9 yards per catch
    Darren Sproles- 45 receptions, 497 yards, 11 yards per catch
    CJ2K- 50 receptions, 503 yards, 10.1 yards per catch

    Total receiving yards:
    Rice- 1962 yards
    Sproles- 1727 yards
    CJ2K- 1166 yards
    Stats can be misleading when trying to compare players. If you put some of those backs in the Ravens offense their receiving stats would go up significantly. Rice's stats are inflated because of how he is used in Cam's offense. Rice's stats may be better on another team. Maybe his running totals and TDs go up if he is in Houston.




  10. #46

    Re: Philly extend up LeSean McCoy

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    You are wrong, read my stats. Sure Sproles had a few more yards than Rice in 2011, but also had more receptions. Who cares about 6 more yards anyway, Rice has out produced both over the last 3 seasons.
    nice stats but that wasnt really my point. receiving ability doesnt necessarily mean stats. Those guys i listed are every bit as good of receiving RBs. even by comparing stats they are comparable, which is what i was pointing out as you said only those other backs were. Ray Rice only had 27 receptions in college, so did he not have the ability to be pass catching RB? obviously he did and does to this day. Those RBs can catch the ball well regardless if they have better stats or not and thats the only point i was making. CJ2K might not have had a great year last year, but he can catch the ball and produced over 400 yards in that category on a bad team and a bad year. Rice is a good Receiver at RB, but hes not the only back in the league that is. Even Peterson really stepped up his ability this past season whether stats show it or not. To be great you have to be complete, so the top backs are all going to have that ability. If youre just saying the only ones that can compare production wise, than id still argue that sproles deserves to be in that conversation but there isnt many RBs getting 600+ yards (in which case some of the ones on your own list wouldnt be comparable) and really thats scheme dependent as well. Ability alone, i stand by my post.
    Last edited by JAB1985; 05-18-2012 at 10:27 AM.
    -JAB




  11. #47

    Re: Philly extend up LeSean McCoy

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    Good post, I totally agree with you, but not entirely sure if that's what ravenshokies meant. "Pierce would be Cameron's entire offense if he was the featured back". I'm not sure if Pierce is good enough yet to be Cams whole offense, and I do think if Rice was playing for the Giants, they would be using Rice a lot more than what they use Bradshaw or Jacobs.

    Also don't forget that after the catch Rice is great in space and beats a hell a lot of defenders, I don't care if Rice is targeted more in the passing game than any RB in the league, he is one of the most dangerous weapons after the catch. Now if you put a good back like Lynch or Frank Gore there, I don't think they would be as good as a receiver even if they where targeted as much as Rice is in the passing game. The only backs that can compare to Rice as a receiver are Foster, Forte, MJD, and McCoy right now IMO.
    My gist was basically how bmorecareful eloquently put it. Like my RB's wet dream to be in Cam's offense comment.. the featured RB is going to get a huge amount of opportunities running it and catching the ball. Compared to most of today's NFL offense schemes, it is substantially more opportunities for the featured back. I wasn't commenting on whether Pierce could match Rice's production... I simply dont know. I have faith that he will be pretty damn good b/c Oz and Eric traded up to get him in the 3rd round.

    I like Rice... a lot... but I dont like him enough to screw up our cap. A CJ, AP type contract is just plain stupid, and winning organizations just dont do that. Foster's and McCoy's contract set the framework for Rice's deal. If he wants a token $1-1.5M more guaranteed... fine, but no more. From Tony's story and other reports, supposedly the Ravens have offered that, but Rice's agent is holding out for the CJ/AP money. If Rice's continues this hold out into training camp, he will not be in good football shape in the 1st portion of the year, so ultimately its a lose-lose situation.




  12. #48
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    Re: Philly extend up LeSean McCoy

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensnhokies View Post
    My gist was basically how bmorecareful eloquently put it. Like my RB's wet dream to be in Cam's offense comment.. the featured RB is going to get a huge amount of opportunities running it and catching the ball. Compared to most of today's NFL offense schemes, it is substantially more opportunities for the featured back. I wasn't commenting on whether Pierce could match Rice's production... I simply dont know. I have faith that he will be pretty damn good b/c Oz and Eric traded up to get him in the 3rd round.

    I like Rice... a lot... but I dont like him enough to screw up our cap. A CJ, AP type contract is just plain stupid, and winning organizations just dont do that. Foster's and McCoy's contract set the framework for Rice's deal. If he wants a token $1-1.5M more guaranteed... fine, but no more. From Tony's story and other reports, supposedly the Ravens have offered that, but Rice's agent is holding out for the CJ/AP money. If Rice's continues this hold out into training camp, he will not be in good football shape in the 1st portion of the year, so ultimately its a lose-lose situation.


    I like Ray Rice a lot as well, but I think the Ravens are ready and willing to either sign him to a Foster/McCoy deal or move on from him. Everyone is replaceable. I would take a similar stand with Flacco, although QBs are harder to find. The Ravens are not going to overpay and screw their cap up for years to come, nor should they.




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