Thread: Why Obama is winning the swing-states thus winning the electoral votes and thus winning the election.
05-29-2012, 03:37 PM #1
Why Obama is winning the swing-states thus winning the electoral votes and thus winning the election.
An idea that has been growing in importance lately is the how current swing-state economies are outperforming the national economy in employment numbers. This bodes well for Obama's reelection. See this chart that compares each swing-state's unemployment figures compared to national unempolyment numbers in orange with the aggregate state polling results in blue favoring Obama:
(You will have to go to the link since this forum hardly allows graphics anymore)
There is still a lot of debate in regards to the significance of individual state unemployment numbers vs. overal national numbers but it is clear that Obama is still in command of the swing-state election. Virgina unemployment is 5.6% and Obama enjoys a 6 point aggregate poll lead. The outlier is Nevada where unemployment is +3% the national average and Obama is +7.6% in the polls - the polling is 2 weeks old though in that state.
Obama has slid in some of the state polling but none the less remains in the lead. The national poll trend has generally moved in Obama's favor of late albeit just slightly. One could propose that national polls precede and forecast state polls. Generally this has been true and if it remains that way, I would expect Obama to gain a point or two in the state polls further solidifying his electoral advantage which remains around +100.
May job numbers out on Friday. Statistical phenom Nate Silver continues to point to Obama needing to average +150,000 jobs a month for reelection. I am not sure what numbers he is plugging in to get 150k but anyone that has followed him through the past several elections cycles can only respect the guy.
05-29-2012, 03:55 PM #2
Re: Why Obama is winning the swing-states thus winning the electoral votes and thus winning the election.
Little premature immaculation Galen?
Not sure if you noticed but tonight Texas votes for the republican nominee not the President.
Re: Why Obama is winning the swing-states thus winning the electoral votes and thus winning the election.Pic of a natural act.
05-29-2012, 10:28 PM #5
Re: Why Obama is winning the swing-states thus winning the electoral votes and thus winning the election.
I agree about Trump who needs to keep his pie hole shut. He's just looking for attention and always has to be on TV. The polls said 70% of the country
believed that when he made his quick in and out ill-fated run.
That said, Trump sure didn't hurt Mitt in Vegas. They went there to get money from the guy who runs Vegas who gave millions to Newt's campaign. Sheldon Adelson, who like me, still sees Mitt as a liberal so Trump speaking as one conservative billionaire to another was there to persuade him. Trump didn't hurt him there. They met for an hour with no commitment of money at this time but he did signal that he would support the GOP nominee so they made progress . Get you facts straight again - Galen.
A guy was on TV just said OBY isn't even campaigning in
Wisconsin. I posted a link on the Equity thread that the DEMs had given
up on Wisconsin and get this.
That's because OBY hasn't even campaigned for him out there, not one
appearance. OBY hates the former mayor and after all the money and
a year's planning on this re-call.
The guy on TV finally said when Walker wins next Tues with the entire
country watching and they'll be watching again in November when Wisconsin
votes for Mitt and the rest of the swing states will go Romney except maybe
VA. There's also some Western states on the fence Mitt will get.
It's all over for OBY after Wisconsin. That's why Wis is so big here. They've
never voted GOP and neither has Mich and PA but Mitt has a good chance
for them all, something the other link I posted said worries the DEMs about the swing states in the electoral map.
NC, FLA, OHIO, WIS are almost 100 votes Mitt automatically gets plus
Michigan's and PA's votes for another 35 or so. OBY is only about
50 pts ahead.
Last edited by AirFlacco; 05-30-2012 at 12:13 AM.Pic of a natural act.
And speaking of the above states, here's something Galen doesn't know about. Rush
said this after a Wash Post writer told him to watch it on attacking OBY. OBYs base
won't take it.
The point is, there is no base or not much of a one. He's losing so many - even
some blacks. I posted on the other thread that a black strategist said OBY is
taking the black vote for granted and W beat Kerry by getting an 8% increase of
black votes in Ohio and 9% increase of black votes in Fla. That was the difference
in the election as blacks won it for Bush.
Chris Cillizza of Washington Post about Obama losing all these primaries? Well, he's not losing, but in these Democrat primaries convicted felons are getting 40% of the primary vote and "nobody" is getting 40% of the primary vote.
In Kentucky, Arkansas, West Virginia, all these states, 40% of the voters voted for anybody but Obama on the Democrat side. And Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post analyzes this and says: It has to be racism! It just has to be racism! But John Podhoretz said (paraphrased), "Well, wait a minute. These people all voted for Obama in 2008. What happened between 2008 and now in these places?" These are the white, working-class voters that Thomas B. Edsall and others in the Obama campaign said as recently as last November: We're not gonna go after them.
We're not gonna base our reelection on trying to get the votes of white working-class Americans. These are the bitter clingers, the old Reagan Democrats. These are white working Democrats, and Obama's losing them. He had them in 2008. So Podhoretz kinda blows this whole theory up. It's a good column. Well, what happened between 2008 and now? These people became racists in four years? Were they not racist when they voted for Obama in 2008? The point is the regime doesn't even have its own Realville. They can't even face facts as to why they are losing support from their business.Pic of a natural act.
05-31-2012, 01:51 PM #8
Winning the swing states eh? Polls, polls, everywhere polls:
Ohio: Romney 46%, Obama 44%
05-31-2012, 02:14 PM #9
05-31-2012, 07:25 PM #10
Remember all those crowds Galen like to point to in the last election. Well guess who
just got drowned out by a huge crowd when he was speaking with anti-Romney rhetoric.
Also, note the map on the right showing a 217-206 lead (wow, what happened to
that 100 pt lead) for the hamster but it shows
Ohio on the fence even though Mitt has the lead, same with Wisconsin where OBY
isn't even campaigning.
Mitt will win both of those states for 30 more points putting him ahead. I also have
Mich (17) and Penn (20) close that could tilt to Mitt too.
Loud and rowdy supporters of Mitt Romney in Boston drowned out an attempt by President Obama campaign’s top strategist to attack the former Republican governor on his home turf.
We might have to put Mass in the red column too.
Last edited by AirFlacco; 06-01-2012 at 02:30 AM.Pic of a natural act.
Why OBY refuses to go to Wisconsin?
He hates the DEM who is running. That's why.
The entire country will go the way of Wisconsin because of the union thing and slashing the
deficit and creating jobs w/o raising taxes as Walker has done.
http://campaign2012.washingtonexamin...ds-wisc/573441Pic of a natural act.
06-01-2012, 06:23 AM #13
Obama drops 3 electoral votes in the RCP average.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.htmlWARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.
Houston Area Ravens Fans -- Houston's Premiere Ravens Fan Group! @HoustonRaven
My map included the states I mentioned above that Mitt is leading in like
Fla, NC, Ohio. That makes it closer like 217-206 with 115 tossups.Pic of a natural act.
Getting back to winning the swing states, well, he's
not doing so hot in California right now where he is now below 50% in the land of illegal immigrants.
This is a die hard blue state with 55 electoral votes.
He'll still win Calif of course, but this shows he is
starting to lose votes nationally.
Galen is again.
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/06/0...in-california/Pic of a natural act.
Rasmussen now has Virginia even between OBY and Mitt.
Va had been ahead til now and I didn't include it in my wins
above. It's more than reachable for Mitt now for another
13 electoral votes.
The title of this thread is blowing up in Galen's face.
Just ask Wisconsin where Walker will win it today between 6-12 pts as the rest of America will follow their lead.
Over $3B deficit cut by Walker w/o raising taxes plus the
creation of thousands of jobs. Yea, yea, some jobs were
lost be he created jobs and that's why he is winning because
the DEM had the worse record in job creation as mayor.
Oby didn't even go there to support him.
The country is watching.
Last edited by AirFlacco; 06-05-2012 at 01:35 AM.Pic of a natural act.
06-06-2012, 06:29 AM #17
Still way to early to be predicting a win for Obama or Romney."It is an undeniable and may I say fundamental quality of man that when faced with extinction, every alternative is preferable." —Leonard Church
Fact is, Mitt is gonna get many of the swing states - too many for OBY.
Walker just won the Wisconsin recall and doubled the vote he got two years ago but he needed to win by 12% for it to swing for Mitt in November. OBY has a 9 pt lead but is
losing it fast.
The country has waken up.Pic of a natural act.
06-07-2012, 01:30 PM #19
Sooooooooo. Are we calling Michigan a swing-state now?
Romney leading Obama 46%-45%,Ruh-Roh
Colorado is now tied according to real clear. OBY has recently lost big leads in Mich and
Col which are now tied. He blew another big lead in VA but still leads by a couple of points which is in the margin of error which means the race is tied.
Rahm Emmanuel has now said the electoral race comes down to 5 states but won't
name them. People that have the American dream or what they think it is are trying
to keep it and will vote for the one they think will allow that to happen.
I believe the 5 states are Wisconsin,Mich, VA, OHio and FLA whose 27 votes are always critical can U say Algore.
Wisconsin will be the most important state because if Mitt gets it, he will win. All
the other swings will vote GOP and btw, OBY just blew a 9 pt lead there too after
Walker's recall win.
Mitt is ahead in Fla and slightly ahead in OHIO which voted for Bush twice
but Oby the last time but Mitt is slightly ahead.
Rahm might have Penn in there instead of Mich because of more votes but Penn
always votes Dem anyway because of Philly and Pissburgh where all the unions
I still give Mitt the ones I mentioned above and with Colorado's 9 points, the
victory for Mitt. I know, I know it's too early but I believe Mitt will pull even
further ahead after the conventions.
Throw in the un-decideds in all those close polls that don't count them, it even becomes
a land slide for Mitt.
The title of this thread keeps shrinking by the second.
Last edited by AirFlacco; 06-11-2012 at 05:14 AM.Pic of a natural act.