Why Obama is winning the swing-states thus winning the electoral votes and thus winning the election.

[HoustonRaven]

Latinos make up 3% of the population in Ohio.

They make up 5.7% in Pennsylvania.

I could go on. But I guess pointing out election realities is "bluster".

This election is going to come down to swing states, none of which (other than Florida) have a significant number of any one particular group to sway this election.

[NCRAVEN]

Tone that shit down please.

Galen is allergic to facts.

Probably going to disappear from the thread for a few weeks now.

[StingerNLG]

All latinos aren't illegal contrary to popular conservative opinion. The legal latino vote will most certainly impact state voting if it gets anywhere close to what some people think.

Sent from my DROID4 using Tapatalk 2

So you believe that legal Latino's are universally happy that illegal Latinos are now free to also take their jobs and educational opportunities? Forget that the unemployment for Latinos is WAY above the national average. You think all they care about is whether those who didn't come into this country the right way are going to get a free pass now?

By all means, please PLEASE keep thinking this.

In the meantime, I find it hilarious that you seem to stick by the state polls you like, and dismiss the ones you don't. Please keep doing that too. That way you are shielded from the reality that is setting in.

You also in that MI poll forgot to mention that Obama is running under 50%, which means there is room for Romney to catch back up. In fact, there isn't a swing state poll out there right now that has the President above 50%. If you think that's great news 5 months away from the election which is supposed a shoo-in for Obama's re-election, that is a delusion only the left is having.

[StingerNLG]

This election is going to come down to swing states, none of which (other than Florida) have a significant number of any one particular group to sway this election.

Not to mention it's all fine and dandy to point out the population of Latinos in a state, but you are not getting all 3% of them to actually vote on election day. You can't even get whites to vote 100% on election day. So you have to hope for 100% turnout from those groups to have a real net effect on a state's vote.

[HoustonRaven]

A few posts back Galen points to the thoughts of his "Latino Friends"

Uhh, wasn't he who proclaimed that if someone touts they have friends in a certain community or group then they probably don't?

[NCRAVEN]

A few posts back Galen points to the thoughts of his "Latino Friends"

Uhh, wasn't he who proclaimed that if someone touts they have friends in a certain community or group then they probably don't?

Notice he didn't just say "latinos" he also said "friends"

[Galen Sevinne]

Latinos make up 3% of the population in Ohio.

They make up 5.7% in Pennsylvania.

I could go on. But I guess pointing out election realities is "bluster".

This election is going to come down to swing states, none of which (other than Florida) have a significant number of any one particular group to sway this election.

Swing and an uber miss...

The Latino vote in Nevada, VA, FLA and Colorado should be interesting nextpolling. Obama is still strong in VA. Obama stymied the GOP with his Dream Act Lite last week and I have to think he gets a nice bump across those states. My Latino friends from MD down through Andean spine all heard his message and it was a political winner as well as a moral winner.

...was my post. So why don't you talk about the latino vote in those states? Any state that comes down to just a couple points in the election will be immensely affected by a Latino vote. With Obama picking up 7 latino votes on every Romney's 3 prior to Dream Act Lite, it will only get worse for Romney.


As far as Pennsylvania and Ohio (which I never included in my Latino Strategy albeit I am sure Obama is more than happy to pick up a point or two in those states with LAtino votes) are more a manufacturing strategy for Obama. If the +8 Rassmussen is valid for MI, one can expect a similar bump in Ohio. PA is in Obama's back pocket already.

Read up on it some. Here is a great methodological breakdown on the Latino vote.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/...uence-in-2012/

[NCRAVEN]

Swing and an uber miss...

The Latino vote in Nevada, VA, FLA and Colorado should be interesting nextpolling. Obama is still strong in VA. Obama stymied the GOP with his Dream Act Lite last week and I have to think he gets a nice bump across those states. My Latino friends from MD down through Andean spine all heard his message and it was a political winner as well as a moral winner.

...was my post. So why don't you talk about the latino vote in those states? Any state that comes down to just a couple points in the election will be immensely affected by a Latino vote.

It was already brought up.

You really should apply your Hispanic vote thoughts to the state by state vote you displayed above.

The Hispanic population in regards to votes only affects about 6 states. and three of them won't matter Arizona, Tex and California. The others are Florida, Colorado and Nevada.

Of all the other swing states NC is the highest with 8% of the populatoin.

Galen, "your bluster is inversely proportional to your political acumen"

[Galen Sevinne]

It was already brought up.

The Latino vote will impact state elections in VA, CO, Fla, NV, NC. That is 72 electoral votes and all Obama needs from the swing states to win the election. To suggest this isn't a huge part of 2012 is humorous.

As far as the effect of Dream Act Lite:

A new poll released June 17, 2012 by Latino Decisions and America’s Voice finds that Latino registered voters are very enthusiastic about President Obama’s recent announcement and action on immigration policy that will halt deportations and provide temporary work permits to some young undocumented immigrants. This new finding stands in clear contrast to the low levels of enthusiasm among Latino voters towards the previous deportation policies under the Obama administration. The joint survey between Latino Decisions and America’s Voice polled Latino registered voters in five key battleground states: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia, and is part of a larger survey on Latino battleground states to be released later in June.

Prior to June 15, 2012, many immigration reform advocates had stated that the record high levels of deportations of immigrants under the Obama administration was causing some Latinos to grow weary about the Obama re-election campaign. In a Latino Decisions/Univision News poll in early 2012 53% of Latino voters said they were less enthusiastic about Obama in 2012 than they had been in 2009, while just 30% were more excited about the President. Overall, when asked what they thought about Obama’s deportation of 1.2 million immigrants, 41% of Latino voters said they were less enthusiastic about Obama, compared to 22% who were more enthusiastic, a net enthusiasm deficit of -19 points. The announcement on June 15 appears to have clearly erased Obama’s enthusiasm deficit among Latinos.

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/...f-self-deport/

[NCRAVEN]

The Latino vote will impact state elections in VA, CO, Fla, NV, NC. That is 72 electoral votes and all Obama needs from the swing states to win the election. To suggest this isn't a huge part of 2012 is humorous.

As far as the effect of Dream Act Lite:

And there is a recent poll that shows Obama losing support in NC amongst Latinos (can't remember where I saw that). VA is only 7% Hispanic population so that will have a minor affect on VA, assuming all Latinos there are registered to vote and this move affects their decision.

Wait till the ads start with him saying last year how he couldn't make this move unilaterally he had to follow the laws on the books, but now all the sudden he makes this move... for political reasons. I bet that will turn a few people off. Not to mention the other people he'll piss off with this move. For every Latino 5 votes you think he gets I bet he loses at least 1.

[StingerNLG]

Again, once Latinos are reminded that those illegals are going to be able to take precious jobs and schooling, and reminded that Latino unemployment in this country is already 13% and rising, and that immigration is at the very low end of the voting totem poll with people right now, all this will mean very little.

But back to reality here. The only states where Latinos make up more than 10 percent of the electorate are: Arizona (16 percent of the electorate in 2008), California (18 percent), Colorado (13 percent), Florida (14 percent), Nevada (15 percent), New Mexico (41 percent), and Texas (20 percent).

Of these, only Colorado, Florida, and Nevada are swing states; New Mexico and Arizona are at best borderline swing states. In Florida, the Latino vote largely (though decreasingly) comprises voters of Cuban descent and is therefore atypical of other Latino electorates.

A Rubio VP pick would effectively lock up Florida. But I am betting Romney right now sees the Florida polling with him in front and doesn't feel like he HAS to go with Rubio just to get votes. He'll leave that crap to Obama's pandering.


So in the end, we’re talking about Colorado and Nevada as the states where this is likely to make any difference, for a total of 15 electoral votes. Romney can counter that by winning Wisconsin or Michigan, or Iowa and Missouri.

But Galen once again misses the fact that for this to make a difference, Latinos have to turn out. Let's say Latino turnout stays exactly the same in Nevada, but white voters increase turnout by 10%. And they go Romney. Romney can win that state. That's just one.

[StingerNLG]

For every Latino 5 votes you think he gets I bet he loses at least 1.

Well, considering Obama seems to like wielding his scepter he can probably counter that by making his next executive order which pisses all over the Constitution the ability for the illegals he gave backdoor amnesty too the right to vote as well. Or, since Citizenship or rule of law means nothing to the man he could simply abolish Citizenship requirements for voting altogether and then all the illegals can vote for him.

[StingerNLG]

Hey, are we still taking about swing states? New Michigan poll from We Ask America.

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/06/20/ia-mi/

Romney 45 - Obama 43. 12% undecided.

[NCRAVEN]

Hey, are we still taking about swing states? New Michigan poll from We Ask America.

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/06/20/ia-mi/

Romney 45 - Obama 43. 12% undecided.

And they sampled twice as many as the Rasmussen poll did. This is why have a hard time believing any polls. One polls 500 and has BHO +8 the other polls 1000 and has Romney plus 2. Beats me...

[AirFlacco]

Its impressive that some of the noobs around here who have probably never followed the polls leading up to a national election (not referring to you Trap as you were here through the last Obama ass whooping) are finally understanding that state elections are more important at this point than national. Now the class needs to understand that states, for the most part, are only polled monthly. A couple point swing in a swing state isn't worth all the hoopla we have seen on this thread. As far as Trap, while you have been through elections here, your political acumen sucks

And your's don't? You forget that McCain was 2 pts ahead when the
markets crashed in Oct 08. One month later and OBY doesn't even win.

I was also around for Regan's thrashing of Jimmy Carter whose economy
wasn't as bad as this and Nixon's thrashing of his opponents.


Of course, Obama lost some leads. The party will coalesce around Romney once all the carnival barkers dropped out. There are some state pollings that I believe hold more importance than others. This election is about the "rust belt" and the Latino vote. Rassmussen just came out with their latest Michigan poll. +8 Obama. This is worth stepping into the fray a bit with the LIVs here. +8 in Michigan shows, that for today, Obama's GM message is resonating. Look for WI and OH to see if the last polling was abberant. The Obama camp loves the MI data though.



Michigan is tied after OBY blew a big lead. He's going to need more than
them to bail him out. As the economy worsens over the summer he'll lose
more groups.

The Latino vote in Nevada, VA, FLA and Colorado should be interesting nextpolling. Obama is still strong in VA. Obama stymied the GOP with his Dream Act Lite last week and I have to think he gets a nice bump across those states. My Latino friends from MD down through Andean spine all heard his message and it was a political winner as well as a moral winner.

I read today where Rubio was quoted as saying, "If my kids went to sleep hungry every night and my country didn't give me an opportunity to feed them, there isn't a law, no matter how restrictive, that would prevent me from coming here."

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/m...111859436.html

That single quote just killed Rubio in this election and might have just handed it all to Obama. People need to understand the significance of the Latino vote in these tight swing states. Conservatives can't fathom the idea of their golden boy okaying immigrants illegally entering. You won't see Rubio on the ticket for sure now and the GOP has lost its chance to appeal to the Latino vote.

Again you're in denial. Mitt is ahead in Flordia where Rubio is from and there
is a heavy latin population there. You've obviously never been down there.

[AirFlacco]

I Take that back, latest Rasmussen poll now has Mitt slightly ahead in Ohio by 1 and give him the momentum for Wisconsin which is tied. While that 1
pt is well within the margin of error, GOP is really excited just to be there at
this point.

Real Clear's latest has OBY ahead in VA by just 1.8-3 pts - again within the
margin of error meaning it's tied but Romney is excited to be there at this point.

I already gave that to OBY but might change my mind as summer goes on. OBY has blown big leads in all these states and not even Galen can
spin that. He over looks all these blown leads - big ones in VA, NC, OHIO.
MICH, COL, FLA.

NOW BRAG, JUST FACT.

http://spectator.org/archives/2012/0...mbers-surprise

[Galen Sevinne]

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/...ground-states/


Growing enthusiasm for DHS shift on DREAMers

Part of this advantage for President Obama appears to be related to his recent announcement to provide relief to undocumented immigrant youth. On June 17, two days after his announcement our Latino Decisions/America’s Voice poll first reported that 49% of Latino voters were now more enthusiastic about Obama, while 14% were less enthusiastic (+35). Over the course of the week, as the DREAMer relief received further attention in the Latino community we found increased support for the announcement. Among all 2,000 survey respondents, now ranging through June 21st, 54% of Latinos are more enthusiastic about Obama compared to 11% who are less enthusiastic (+43). Looking just at the new polling data gathered June 17-21, 58% are now more enthusiastic compared to 9% who are less enthusiastic (+49). Across the key states the enthusiasm for the DHS policy shift follows trends in Obama support. For example, in Arizona and Nevada Latinos showed the most enthusiastic response.

[Galen Sevinne]

Growing enthusiasm for DHS shift on DREAMers

Part of this advantage for President Obama appears to be related to his recent announcement to provide relief to undocumented immigrant youth. On June 17, two days after his announcement our Latino Decisions/America’s Voice poll first reported that 49% of Latino voters were now more enthusiastic about Obama, while 14% were less enthusiastic (+35). Over the course of the week, as the DREAMer relief received further attention in the Latino community we found increased support for the announcement. Among all 2,000 survey respondents, now ranging through June 21st, 54% of Latinos are more enthusiastic about Obama compared to 11% who are less enthusiastic (+43). Looking just at the new polling data gathered June 17-21, 58% are now more enthusiastic compared to 9% who are less enthusiastic (+49). Across the key states the enthusiasm for the DHS policy shift follows trends in Obama support. For example, in Arizona and Nevada Latinos showed the most enthusiastic response.


http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/...ground-states/

[AirFlacco]

Galen - Your own top DEM said it's

coming down to 5 states and those
states arent in the 5.

The are Wisc, NC, OHIO, FLA and Mich.

Mitt is ahead in Oh, Fl and NC and
Rasmussen gives him the momentum
in Wisc.

That's at least 4 of the 5 states for
Mitt.

OBY also blew Colorado which has a large Hispanic population and is leaning to Mitt.

The title of this thread has been proven wrong.