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  1. #13
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    Re: Will Sizzle and Haloti end their careers as HOFers?



    Quote Originally Posted by somedumbguy View Post
    Position names sometimes change, but lineman that I can think of include:

    Bob Lily, Art Donavan, Joe Green, John Randle, Merlin Olsen, Cortez Kennedy, Alan Page, and Dan Hampton. There is also Reggie White who I am not sure if he should be called a rush end or defensive lineman, but he was big, nasty, and dominant.

    If Warren Sapp gets into the Hall, would he make this list or do people think of him as a sack guy?
    All those recent guys had a lot of sacks. Randle 137 sacks, Kennedy 58 sacks, Hampton 57 sacks. Sacks matter to the HOF voters for this position. Ngata has 17 in 6 years. I think he's going to need at least 50 and I'm not sure he's going to do that.
    He Who Dares.....Wins




  2. #14

    Re: Will Sizzle and Haloti end their careers as HOFers?

    Quote Originally Posted by somedumbguy View Post
    If Warren Sapp gets into the Hall, would he make this list or do people think of him as a sack guy?
    Like GOTA pointed out i think most of those guys are still dominant pass rushers.

    If Sapp gets in Im not sure how much that would have an effect on Haloti, theyre similarly athletically gifted but Ngata has a lot less sacks to show for it, 97 vs 17. If Ngata improves his rate slightly and continues to play 6-7 years, hell be close to half. That may be enough to get him in, but I think Sapp likely being the only DT to get in before him, it might actually hurt his chances.
    -JAB




  3. #15
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    Re: Will Sizzle and Haloti end their careers as HOFers?

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    The metrics for HOF inclusion are changing thankfully. The impact that us statheads have made on the process has become quite palpable.

    Media members nowadays can't ignore the data. They can't rely on the "I know more than the above average fan because I cover sports for a living" premise that has carried them for decades. That premise allowed them to justify illogical selections for years and years. Now, with the average fan having access to piles of stats, data, and every game film of every game, you can argue that most media members actually know less about the players they follow than the savvy fan.

    The impact of statistics is taking over the sports media world. If you read the articles on ESPN and Yahoo sports where there various writers dissect the mid-season baseball awards, stats like WAR and OPS+ are now used more readily than the older AVG, HR, RBI lines that we are accustom to seeing. 15 years ago, nobody even knew what WAR and OPS+ were. Now they are being used as a key criteria by baseball writers in justifying their selections. In fact, the AVG/OB%/SLUG line has all but replaced the AVG/HR/RBI line as our primary metric for evaluating a player.

    Sports writers are still stubborn creatures stuck in the past in many regards (how else can you justify Jeff Bagwell reaching ballot #3 before induction?), but as every 65,75,80 year old sports writer with a HOF vote dies or retires---and is subsequently replaced by a younger, more stat-centered voter---we should see a more accurate and appropriate HOF. Bert Blyleven getting in two years ago was a great example of progress.

    So how does all this baseball-related rambling relate to Ngata and Suggs? I think we are seeing a similar trend developing in football...and it certainly helps both players. In fact, it helps every player who didn't have the good fortune of playing on a Super Bowl Champion. Chris Doleman was voted into the 2012 HOF class while Jerome Bettis even make the last cutdown of finalists. A decade ago, I'm not sure that we would have ever seen it. Doleman, who the vast majority of his career for some less visible franchises, might not have ever been voted in by the writers a decade ago. Meanwhile, Bettis with his bloated, misleading stats, would have been a virtual lock on the first ballot. Bettis probably only had one season, his rookie year, where he was a top 5 NFL back in terms of his overall production. Ray Rice already has had two. Bettis was not a dominant runner at all, but rather one who produced a ton of yards by getting a ridiculous number of carries. Yet, he played in Pittsburgh, was a likeable character, and was on a Super Bowl winner. Using past criteria that would have propelled him ahead of someone like Doleman, a far superior football player, and probably past someone like Curtis Martin, who was considerably better than Bettis as well. Doleman's and Martin's induction ahead of Bettis shows me that the days are changing.

    This probably helps Ngata more than Suggs, because I think Suggs' visibility factor---both in terms of his personality as well as the position he plays---is much higher. I would put Suggs' chances at HOF induction at better than 50% right now. He's far from a lock, but he's 3 years further into his career than Ngata, has won a Defensive POY award, and has more of a name recognition than Ngata. Essentially, I think Suggs might very well be a viable HOF candidate in the older name-recognition style of HOF induction and also in the new style where voters are focusing more on rankings/stats/all-pros/pro bowls.

    In past years, there was nothing, aside from Pro Bowl votes, to determine how good Ngata is. Now there are NFL top 100 lists (which will certainly be a metric used for HOF evaluation heading forward). Ngata's peers ranked him in the top 20 last year and ranked him #9 in all of football this year. There are game tapes. There are discussions on NFL network over and over about how good he is. These didn't exist 20-30 years ago, when a lot of the HOF voters probably couldn't tell you more than 3-4 defensive starters on a lot of the non-super bowl teams. NFL HOF voters know how good Ngata is.

    Let's also not forget that Ngata, even though 28 now, still might have another 9-10 years in the NFL. Interior linemen can play forever. Ngata is only six years into his NFL career. He really is not HOF worthy now. He's been the best interior D-lineman in football over the last four seasons by a wide, wide margin, but that alone won't get him into Canton, nor should it. If Ngata tacks on 3 more pro bowls and a couple more all-pro selections over the next three years, then I think he does become a very strong HOF candidate. Right now, he's not there though. To be a genuine HOF candidate after six NFL years, you have to be the elite of the elite AND play the right position. Ngata's play is in the elite of the elite classification. However, unless you're a RB or QB, six seasons of dominating your position won't get you into Canton. We really need to be having this discussion entering year nine or ten and not entering year seven.

    However, on the short term, I will disagree with some people who say that because Ngata is a non-sack, run-stuffing type of player, it excludes him from being a viable HOF candidate. If Ngata secures first team All Pro status over each of the next three seasons and makes the top 20 of the NFL player rankings, he's got a very very good shot at Canton. Just because Ngata isn't a sack machine doesn't mean the voters don't recognize how much of a talent he is. If you are ranked as the top player at your position for 6-7 straight seasons, you are a Hall of Famer. End of Story. If you are ranked as one of the top 20 players in the entire NFL for 5-6 straight seasons, you are a Hall of Famer with little debate. Ngata is 2-3 years away from meeting both criteria.
    Very good post.




  4. #16

    Re: Will Sizzle and Haloti end their careers as HOFers?

    Quote Originally Posted by somedumbguy View Post
    Suggs needs a couple more seasons like last season, and it probably would not hurt to have a huge year after Ray Lewis has retired. There is also a lot of competition in the pass rushing outside linebacker category that could make it difficult to stand out.

    Ngata needs time and health and he will be in the Hall. He is dominant in his position and most recognize him as one of the best defensive player in the league even if his position does not allow him to translate that into stats all the time.
    I'd agree with that before last season. He disappeared during the 2nd half of the season. Could have been due to injury.




  5. #17
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    Re: Will Sizzle and Haloti end their careers as HOFers?

    Quote Originally Posted by steelerhater View Post
    I'd agree with that before last season. He disappeared during the 2nd half of the season. Could have been due to injury.
    More like the last two games and play offs (although he had a great game against the Texans) I think that's going a bit too far.




  6. #18
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    Re: Will Sizzle and Haloti end their careers as HOFers?

    If Suggs gets a Super Bowl win (or a 2nd DPOY award) during his career, I think that cements it for him.

    I think Ngata needs to string together a few healthy seasons. He needs to either win a DPOY award, or be significantly involved in the discussion for several, and of course the Super Bowl ring would help his case a great deal as well.

    HOF voters love a champion.




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