Obama Pulls Ahead .... again

**HoustonRaven** · 08-10-2012, 10:50 AM

Mitt has dropped the ball twice and it's now cost him.

RCP has him behind or statistically even in all but one battleground state -- Missouri -- and he's fallen behind a full point in the RCP approval average. In Ohio, Obama opens up a 4 point lead. You may as well give WI, MI, and PA to Obama now, all of which are 5-7 points in favor of Obama. This is happening in the midst of tepid, at best, economic news.

As I have postulated before, the way Mitt wins this is by getting out in front and staying there. You're not going to win playing catch-up to an incumbent.

A month ago I would have said he has a 50-50 shot. Now I think it's fallen to 35-65.

**StingerNLG** · 08-10-2012, 10:55 AM

I still think you are wrong here. Calling anything before September is just giving the left what they want.

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**HoustonRaven** · 08-10-2012, 10:56 AM

Originally Posted by StingerNLG

I still think you are wrong here. Calling anything before September is just giving the left what they want.

Who's calling anything?

And are you denying he's trending the wrong way? Because he is and it's a rather fast trend given the state of the economy right now.

**StingerNLG** · 08-10-2012, 11:10 AM

Well, apparently his internal polling is telling him something else other than these oversampled Dem polls. Not to mention Rasmussen is telling a different story too even having Romney up 4 nationally, up 2 in Iowa, only down 2 in Virginia, tied in Colorado, up in NC, and last looked up in Florida.

All this with Obama not just attacking Romney, but lying and accusing him of murder.

Yes, I am ready for Romney to start hitting back now. But something is telling him that he's still in position to counter-strike when the time is right. And I still say if all of this mattered NOW, the President who is supposed to walk on water and be the greatest thing since sliced bread would be demolishing Romney across the board.

http://www.dickmorris.com/the-real-poll-numbers/
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/...in_649504.html
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/20...enthusiasm.php

Concerned? Maybe a little. But not enough to start calling this less than 50/50. There is no reason Obama should be fighting for his life right now with all the wonders he has bestowed upon us common folk for the last 3.5 years.

**HoustonRaven** · 08-10-2012, 11:24 AM

Dick Morris's article has me scratching my head. He sites Obama being up one in Ohio and uses LV polls as his source. Well, the most recent ones put Obama up far above one point so I am not sure to what poll he is referring.

Rasmussen has a statistical tie (Romney +1) in their last poll in FL, which was over a month ago.

**NCRAVEN** · 08-10-2012, 12:08 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Who's calling anything?

And are you denying he's trending the wrong way? Because he is and it's a rather fast trend given the state of the economy right now.

Trending the wrong way based on what? The polls?

If I check Realclear the polls that have it trending the wrong way are either democrat polling firms, or registered voter polls.

I thought you said you only believed the LV polls.

**HoustonRaven** · 08-10-2012, 12:21 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Trending the wrong way based on what? The polls?

If I check Realclear the polls that have it trending the wrong way are either democrat polling firms, or registered voter polls.

I thought you said you only believed the LV polls.

Uhh, you need to look again.

They are likely voter polls. Rasmussen has Mitt down from 2-3 months ago in Ohio, MI, WI, NC and Florida.

Even Fox News has it trending Obama ....

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...support-slips/

**NCRAVEN** · 08-10-2012, 12:42 PM

I was referring to the National polls, which I think are a good indication of whihc way things are trending.

The Fox poll is an RV poll, and the over sampled Dem's by 9%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

As far as the State polls, serious question from another thread

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Think about this. A media (NBC) that edits 911 tapes (Treyvon Martin), won't report stories that would hurt the image of Obama, or report half-truths to protect him.

Why should we trust their polling data to be accurate? I'm not saying they are lying, but I definitely think it's possible for example when they call... Wisconsin they call a city like Madison to get their sample. Or Virginia they call Fairfax.

Polls are fluid, and generally don't start getting accurate till after labor day when they want to keep their credibility up for future elections.

**StingerNLG** · 08-10-2012, 08:27 PM

http://m.theatlantic.com/politics/ar...inning/260963/

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**NCRAVEN** · 08-10-2012, 10:14 PM

Mitt's announcing his VP pick tomorrow.

The speculation is hilarious, people are saying it's Ryan.. but it might not be.

Pawlenty while boring has grown on me, I also like McDonnell, I think Portman is out, but right now there are 4 people who know. Mitt & Ann, Beth (Mitt's long time assistant) and the VP pick.

**wickedsolo** · 08-10-2012, 10:38 PM

It is strange that Mitt's campaign managers are letting the Dems run wild with these hack-n-slash adds and accusations without responding to any of them...at all.

Like AirFlacco said in another thread...Mitt remaining silent on these things doesn't really do a whole lot for his public image.

Sometimes I wonder if he really wants to win or if he thinks he has no shot, so he's not going to blow his wad on it?

**NCRAVEN** · 08-10-2012, 11:24 PM

Responding is a double edge sword. Yes you hit back and energize your base, but you can also legitimize the argument,

It's almost a no win situation.

**AirFlacco** · 08-12-2012, 08:40 AM

Dick Morris conducted his own poll of over 6,000 un-decideds. That's still the key and why he said Mitt would win but that was months ago.

At lot has changed with these attacks. The country doesn't like them but it just doesn't like Mitt.

OBYs likeability is saving him even with the lies.

**AirFlacco** · 08-12-2012, 08:49 AM

Speaking of Rasmussen, Rush says don't get depressed about these polls.

They're DEM polls that dont poll the likely voters. Rasmussen is the only one that does.

________________________________

I want to know how approval 43, disapproval 51, translates into a nine-point Obama lead in the Fox poll or in any other poll. What are we supposed to believe here? Now, the Fox poll does say that among voters who are "extremely interested in the race," the candidates are tied at 48. Which means Obama is only pulling ahead if he is among low-information voters, ie, The Stupids. But they count. However, this is a poll of registered voters, not likely voters.

______________________________

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/20...d_by_the_polls

**HoustonRaven** · 08-12-2012, 06:17 PM

RCP EV Average for WI moves from Leaning Obama to Toss Up. This was released yesterday so it probably does not take into account the Ryan announcement.