Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent

**AirFlacco** · 08-12-2012, 05:57 AM

Originally Posted by StingerNLG

Guys, if Romney needed Rubio to win Florida, then he cannot win this election at all. Sorry, but that is just a fact.

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2

Same fact with Ryan. See HRs post above.

**NCRAVEN** · 08-12-2012, 07:00 AM

Hey Trap.

Why won't Christians vote for Ryan? An Irish Catholic with a solid voting record on te social issues important to them?

http://www.ontheissues.org/House/Paul_Ryan.htm/

**AirFlacco** · 08-12-2012, 08:33 AM

It's not just Ryan but anyone.

BTW, the Catholic Church voted for OBY. Then he thanked them by attacking them with the contraceptive thing.

The Christian Right is the Southern Baptists and non-denominational protestant evangelical Christians.

They didn't vote for Kennedy when he became the first Catholic president and they won't vote for
Mitt to become the first Mormon president.

In fact, millions of Christians are pissed that Billy Graham, a Southern Baptist, is in bed with the Pope. Um, not physically but figuretively. He sends many people from his crusade to join the Catholic Church when they go forward and has met with every Pope.

Billy even has priests, cardinals and bishops on his stage with the protestant ministers.

The protestants left them over 400 years ago. It's called the reformation.

**HoustonRaven** · 08-12-2012, 04:43 PM

Originally Posted by StingerNLG

Guys, if Romney needed Rubio to win Florida, then he cannot win this election at all. Sorry, but that is just a fact.

I'll bite. How is this "fact" exactly?

**HoustonRaven** · 08-12-2012, 04:53 PM

Originally Posted by StingerNLG

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/08/1...rability-3925/

Not worried about seniors.

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Wow

Did you guys bother to read the Gallup poll?

One, it's from April of 2011 ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147287/Am...?version=print

Two, this was a RV poll, but 10% of those polled were not even registered to vote.

I'd love to see something more recent than a poll that's 18 months old.

EDIT: And not a very smart move going on 60 Minutes the same night as the Olympic closing ceremonies. Why not wait a week and max exposure next Sunday?

**NCRAVEN** · 08-12-2012, 07:13 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Did you guys bother to read the Gallup poll?

One, it's from April of 2011 ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147287/Am...?version=print

Two, this was a RV poll, but 10% of those polled were not even registered to vote.

I'd love to see something more recent than a poll that's 18 months old.

EDIT: And not a very smart move going on 60 Minutes the same night as the Olympic closing ceremonies. Why not wait a week and max exposure next Sunday?

Damn dude, they can't do anything right can they?

They're taking advantage of the pick being fresh in the news cycle. Who they hell watches the closing ceremonies anyway?

As far as the poll, I personally think it's good that a registered voter poll as they are usually less informed.

**StingerNLG** · 08-12-2012, 07:25 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

I'll bite. How is this "fact" exactly?

If he needs a specific person to run for VP to do nothing more than help him win a state, then that means he cannot win it on his own. And if he cannot win Florida on his own he will not win the election. That's pretty factual.

Sent from my Xoom using Tapatalk 2

**HoustonRaven** · 08-12-2012, 07:54 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Damn dude, they can't do anything right can they?

They're taking advantage of the pick being fresh in the news cycle. Who they hell watches the closing ceremonies anyway?

The closing ceremony wins its slot every year it's on.

I could easily flip the script back to you and say "Damn, they can't do anything wrong".

I'll be the first to say it when I think they do something right or deserve praise. I just feel they haven't done much right lately. The polls bare that out.

**NCRAVEN** · 08-12-2012, 08:37 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

I could easily flip the script back to you and say "Damn, they can't do anything wrong".

I'll be the first to say it when I think they do something right or deserve praise. I just feel they haven't done much right lately. The polls bare that out.

You could, and I'll admit I'm an optimist so I do try to find the good in most everything, but we can go through and find where I've criticized things.

I feel since you thought he should be starting to hit back a few weeks or so ago that you haven't agreed with anything they've done. While I think you're right on things like they've been getting caught up in the back and forth and not staying on message, I agree with going on 60 minutes. Romney was beginning to get defined by BHO, getting on primetime with Ryan gets in front of BHO's defining Ryan (not that going on 60 minutes will stop him from trying.

**BigPlayReceiver** · 08-13-2012, 09:38 AM

(For now and future reference, please note that I'm a card-carrying Independent (fiscal con, social lib). I'm also a contrarian that likes to isht on conventional wisdom whenever possible.)

My take on the Ryan pick is that in real-time, tweets, fb posts, polls, bus tour turnouts, ads, and excitement about conventions and future debates seem like they matter, but ultimately they only matter a little bit.

The BFD is electoral votes. Always is, right? So the question is an age-old, easy one (Stinger mentioned it upthread)...what does Ryan do for the ticket electorally?

I'll hold back my wall of text for now (people keep interrupting me here), but I don't think he does/will do as much as the Repubs need. VP candidates--to a small degree--can help a party lose an election, but have any really helped to win one?

**HoustonRaven** · 08-13-2012, 09:45 AM

Originally Posted by BigPlayReceiver

I'll hold back my wall of text for now (people keep interrupting me here), but I don't think he does/will do as much as the Repubs need. VP candidates--to a small degree--can help a party lose an election, but have any really helped to win one?

Yes. Reagan.

Reagan was an outsider and many felt he jumped the line when he ran for Prez. His pick of Bush Sr for Veep was to get the establishment on board.

**BigPlayReceiver** · 08-13-2012, 10:07 AM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Yes. Reagan.

Reagan was an outsider and many felt he jumped the line when he ran for Prez. His pick of Bush Sr for Veep was to get the establishment on board.

Sure thing...but I'm suspecting that neither one of us was of age, yet if we had been, a ticket of you and me could have taken down Carter/Mondale.

**HoustonRaven** · 08-13-2012, 10:15 AM

Originally Posted by BigPlayReceiver

Sure thing...but I'm suspecting that neither one of us was of age, yet if we had been, a ticket of you and me could have taken down Carter/Mondale.

I'm not so sure about that. Reagan was behind / even with Carter for a good portion of the lead up to the election.

He eventually pulled away and, obviously, won big.

**BigPlayReceiver** · 08-13-2012, 10:49 AM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

I'm not so sure about that. Reagan was behind / even with Carter for a good portion of the lead up to the election.

He eventually pulled away and, obviously, won big.

I haven't refreshed my '80 election memory in awhile, but I recall Reagan nabbing a quarter of the Dems and most of the Indys being the predominate factors, but maybe that's not the complete picture. But to move the convo along, I can concede that Bush helped Reagan.

Do you see Ryan as the "swing state-flipper" needed?

**NCRAVEN** · 08-13-2012, 10:54 AM

Originally Posted by BigPlayReceiver

I haven't refreshed my '80 election memory in awhile, but I recall Reagan nabbing a quarter of the Dems and most of the Indys being the predominate factors, but maybe that's not the complete picture. But to move the convo along, I can concede that Bush helped Reagan.

Do you see Ryan as the "swing state-flipper" needed?

Wisconsin... and other than that, it's hard to say.

**HoustonRaven** · 08-13-2012, 11:06 AM

Originally Posted by BigPlayReceiver

Do you see Ryan as the "swing state-flipper" needed?

Nope.

He's very popular in his district, but it's a district that does not hold much weight in state wide elections. It encompasses Racine, Kenosha and much of the plains to the west. State-wide, he's not a very popular figure and I do not see him being able to swing the state red, especially when you consider WI has not gone for the GOP since the 80's.

WI is beholden to two cities, Milwaukee and Madison. Neither of which will ever go red.

I think the narrative is written on him in Florida as well, accurate or not, seniors are not going to perceive him as some on the right are hoping. Seniors (LV's ages 65+) vote in lock step with the Dems, especially in Florida. The only exception to this was McCain 4 years ago. Polling since 2008 show overwhelming support for Obama by the seniors and I don't think Ryan changes that equation. In a state that's VERY close, it may very well come down to the senior vote in FL.

I can see him getting some traction in Ohio though. I think his message plays well there.

**NCRAVEN** · 08-13-2012, 12:52 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Nope.

He's very popular in his district, but it's a district that does not hold much weight in state wide elections. It encompasses Racine, Kenosha and much of the plains to the west. State-wide, he's not a very popular figure and I do not see him being able to swing the state red, especially when you consider WI has not gone for the GOP since the 80's.

WI is beholden to two cities, Milwaukee and Madison. Neither of which will ever go red.

I think the narrative is written on him in Florida as well, accurate or not, seniors are not going to perceive him as some on the right are hoping. Seniors (LV's ages 65+) vote in lock step with the Dems, especially in Florida. The only exception to this was McCain 4 years ago. Polling since 2008 show overwhelming support for Obama by the seniors and I don't think Ryan changes that equation. In a state that's VERY close, it may very well come down to the senior vote in FL.

I can see him getting some traction in Ohio though. I think his message plays well there.

Link? not doubting just wanna see what you're basing that off of.

**StingerNLG** · 08-13-2012, 12:54 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Nope.

He's very popular in his district, but it's a district that does not hold much weight in state wide elections. It encompasses Racine, Kenosha and much of the plains to the west. State-wide, he's not a very popular figure and I do not see him being able to swing the state red, especially when you consider WI has not gone for the GOP since the 80's.

WI is beholden to two cities, Milwaukee and Madison. Neither of which will ever go red.

I think the narrative is written on him in Florida as well, accurate or not, seniors are not going to perceive him as some on the right are hoping. Seniors (LV's ages 65+) vote in lock step with the Dems, especially in Florida. The only exception to this was McCain 4 years ago. Polling since 2008 show overwhelming support for Obama by the seniors and I don't think Ryan changes that equation. In a state that's VERY close, it may very well come down to the senior vote in FL.

I can see him getting some traction in Ohio though. I think his message plays well there.

All due respect, but I still don't agree:

http://www.newsmax.com/newswidget/zo...n=widgetphase1

Zogby already says he's seeing a jump in poll numbers in swing states, which is exactly what I said picking Ryan should do over trying to nab one state.

And I don't know how Ryan won't play in Florida considering his medicare plan doesn't hurt them at all. Once he reminds Florida seniors that Obama cut Medicare by $700 billion to fund Obamacare, I think Florida will swing back pretty quickly.

Patience Houston, patience.

**HoustonRaven** · 08-13-2012, 01:03 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Link? not doubting just wanna see what you're basing that off of.

Rasmussen just released a poll with his popularity rating in WI. It's only at 39%. 35% have no opinion of him. You can spin that both ways, of course.

Originally Posted by StingerNLG

All due respect, but I still don't agree:

http://www.newsmax.com/newswidget/zo...n=widgetphase1

Zogby already says he's seeing a jump in poll numbers in swing states, which is exactly what I said picking Ryan should do over trying to nab one state.

And I don't know how Ryan won't play in Florida considering his medicare plan doesn't hurt them at all. Once he reminds Florida seniors that Obama cut Medicare by $700 billion to fund Obamacare, I think Florida will swing back pretty quickly.

Zogby is the only poll showing that then. As I pointed out, he's not very well liked in WI and Gallup just put out a poll saying he has numbers similar to Dan Quayle. Any "jump" is going to be short-term and Zogby himself calls it a bump in the link. Not to mention, this particular poll puts them tied. Tied is where they've been all summer.

As for Florida and the seniors, I don't doubt what you say. I agree with what Obamacare and the Ryan Plan means to to seniors. My point is that the narrative is already written. You're arguing what the plan says and means. I am arguing that it does not mater. That it's already in their heads that Ryan is the dude that will walk then into the grave. And you can thank the AARP for that. They have been lying to their members for decades and they lap it up.

**NCRAVEN** · 08-13-2012, 01:11 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Rasmussen just released a poll with his popularity rating in WI. It's only at 39%. 35% have no opinion of him. You can spin that both ways, of course.

At least he has more positives then negatives, ya know?

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Zogby is the only poll showing that then. As I pointed out, he's not very well liked in WI and Gallup just put out a poll saying he has numbers similar to Dan Quayle. Any "jump" is going to be short-term.

As for Florida and the seniors, I don't doubt what you say. I agree with what Obamacare and the Ryan Plan means to to seniors. My point is that the narrative is already written. You're arguing what the plan says and means. I am arguing that it does not mater. That it's already in their heads that Ryan is the dude that will walk then into the grave. And you can thank the AARP for that. They have been lying to their members for decades and they lap it up.

Do you think it's possible... or even likely that Romney/Ryan can inform them of this to a point that the narrative changes?