Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent

[HoustonRaven]

At least he has more positives then negatives, ya know?

Yeah, but you still need to look at the demographics of the state. It's very similar to Maryland in some ways. Much like Baltimore and PG County control MD, two cities control the state. You have Milwaukee; which is Obama 100%. It's a pro-union city and the GOP hardly has a presence there. They hated Scott Walker. Madison is even more blue. It's a college town and the states capital.

Suppose Ryan improves his approval numbers there. I still don't think it's enough to overcome the influence of those two hyper-partisan areas of the state.

Do you think it's possible... or even likely that Romney/Ryan can inform them of this to a point that the narrative changes?

Possible? Yes.

Likely? Jury is out, IMO. The fastest way to change that message is the media. I don't see the MSM helping anytime soon. I'd like to see Ryan hold some old fashioned town hall style meetings with seniors and take a ton of questions from them. That way you don't need the media. Reagan was the master of this. He bypassed the media frequently.

[NCRAVEN]

Possible? Yes.

Likely? Jury is out, IMO. The fastest way to change that message is the media. I don't see the MSM helping anytime soon. I'd like to see Ryan hold some old fashioned town hall style meetings with seniors and take a ton of questions from them. That way you don't need the media. Reagan was the master of this. He bypassed the media frequently.

My thoughts EXACTLY. Maybe at the villages.. where you're sure to get nothing but seniors.

[HoustonRaven]

My thoughts EXACTLY. Maybe at the villages.. where you're sure to get nothing but seniors.

The Villages, Palm Beach, Ft. Myers, etc ....

[BigPlayReceiver]

There are always two notable jumps in any cycle.
One after the VP announcement, and one after the convention.
The trick is to sustain them among the attacks, exposures of truth, etc.

[StingerNLG]

Rasmussen just released a poll with his popularity rating in WI. It's only at 39%. 35% have no opinion of him. You can spin that both ways, of course.



Zogby is the only poll showing that then. As I pointed out, he's not very well liked in WI and Gallup just put out a poll saying he has numbers similar to Dan Quayle.

Washington Post now has a similar poll showing Ryan has better favorables, and he is highest among seniors.

As for Florida and the seniors, I don't doubt what you say. I agree with what Obamacare and the Ryan Plan means to to seniors. My point is that the narrative is already written. You're arguing what the plan says and means. I am arguing that it does not mater. That it's already in their heads that Ryan is the dude that will walk then into the grave. And you can thank the AARP for that. They have been lying to their members for decades and they lap it up.

But I think that is going to be easy to defuse. Romney is already down there today and Ryan will be down there next week. And though CBS edited this out of their 60 minutes interview on TV, its still on the web version, Ryan's mom lives in Florida and uses the Medicare system. Bet me she makes an appearance or two on the trail in Florida.


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[StingerNLG]

Yeah, but you still need to look at the demographics of the state. It's very similar to Maryland in some ways. Much like Baltimore and PG County control MD, two cities control the state. You have Milwaukee; which is Obama 100%. It's a pro-union city and the GOP hardly has a presence there. They hated Scott Walker. Madison is even more blue. It's a college town and the states capital.

And yet with that Scott Walker still won election and the recall. I think there is an opening for Romney to win the state by riding Walker's wave.



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[NCRAVEN]

And yet with that Scott Walker still won election and the recall. I think there is an opening for Romney to win the state by riding Walker's wave.



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One thing though... Walker won the recall with about 500,000 less people voting then voted in the 08 election.

Who knows what would have happened had the same turn out shown up.

[4G63]

As for Florida and the seniors, I don't doubt what you say. I agree with what Obamacare and the Ryan Plan means to to seniors. My point is that the narrative is already written. You're arguing what the plan says and means. I am arguing that it does not mater. That it's already in their heads that Ryan is the dude that will walk then into the grave. And you can thank the AARP for that. They have been lying to their members for decades and they lap it up.

So they won't watch the debates? I'll take Ryan against SlowJoe any day of the week. He can convey the message that needs to be told.

[StingerNLG]

One thing though... Walker won the recall with about 500,000 less people voting then voted in the 08 election.

Who knows what would have happened had the same turn out shown up.

And this is one big big problem the President has. There is nothing to indicate that turnout for Obama will be anything near 08.

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[Dade]

And this is one big big problem the President has. There is nothing to indicate that turnout for Obama will be anything near 08.

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Obama's success in 08 came from the young vote. Young people NEVER vote, but they did in 08. As you said nothing so far shows that that same demographic will turn out in November.

[AirFlacco]

DADE - The 08 election was the first when young people could vote. Before you had
to be 21. However, those youth that voted for them have graduated and don't have
jobs. Many are with OWS so OBY probably won't get the youth vote this year.

Indies are turning vs him too and I posted stats that Mitt will get an increase in
black votes. The like I posted said OBY is taking blacks for grants and they and
hispanics have the highest unemployment rate.

[Dade]

DADE - The 08 election was the first when young people could vote. Before you had
to be 21. However, those youth that voted for them have graduated and don't have
jobs. Many are with OWS so OBY probably won't get the youth vote this year.

Trap what are you taking about? The 26th Amendment, which was adopted in 1971, states The right of citizens of the United States, who are 18 years of age or older, to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of age.

[AirFlacco]

You said young people never vote. I don't remember them voting either.

Their first election was Nixon v Mondale. That was my first election but was over 18 just
missing the 68 election.

I stand corrected.

[Dade]

You said young people never vote. I don't remember them voting either.

Their first election was Nixon v Mondale. That was my first election but was over 18 just
missing the 68 election.

I stand corrected.

What I meant was that the young demographic never had such a huge turnout as they did in 08. Looks like there won't be a repeat performance this time around.

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[HoustonRaven]

So they won't watch the debates? I'll take Ryan against SlowJoe any day of the week. He can convey the message that needs to be told.

Maybe they will, I don't know. But that wasn't my point.

My point was the narrative has been written already and it's now Ryan's job to try and fix it. Take a look at the hecklers at his last two speeches and you'll see what I am talking about.

As for the debates, it's a sea of liberal moderators so I don't think he'll get a fair chance there either.

[NCRAVEN]

And this is one big big problem the President has. There is nothing to indicate that turnout for Obama will be anything near 08.

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Good point, I didn't even take that into consideration.

And by all indicators turn out (as of right now) is on the side against Obama.

[NCRAVEN]

Maybe they will, I don't know. But that wasn't my point.

My point was the narrative has been written already and it's now Ryan's job to try and fix it. Take a look at the hecklers at his last two speeches and you'll see what I am talking about.

As for the debates, it's a sea of liberal moderators so I don't think he'll get a fair chance there either.

I sure hope Romney is getting some tips from Gingrich on how to reject the premise of the question and maybe scold the moderator for being an idiot.

Ryan doesn't need help... he's going against Biden.

[HoustonRaven]

I sure hope Romney is getting some tips from Gingrich on how to reject the premise of the question and maybe scold the moderator for being an idiot.

Agreed.

Ryan doesn't need help... he's going against Biden.

In a fair fight, I'd agree. But it's going to be two on one, with the questions molded to suit Biden.

[NCRAVEN]

So I was listening to Rush at lunch and heard him cite a story.

It's a very small sample but still interesting.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...b285_blog.html

Before the announcement, senior citizens split 28 percent apiece positively and negatively on Ryan, but afterward his favorable number shot to 46 percent with no change on the other side of the equation. Seniors are likely to get even more outsized attention in the coming months due to Ryan’s controversial proposal to change the Medicare entitlement. A Post-Kaiser poll released over the weekend shows broad, cross-party opposition to such a change.

[CptJesus]

You know, I am really curious as to what you guys actually like about Paul Ryan's budget proposal. Let me list all the things I DISLIKE about it:

Military spending is completely untouched. This is a huge portion of our spending (pretty disproportionate), and the Ryan budget would leave this completely untouched. Adjusted for inflation, we're spending more than what we were spending when we were dealing with a Soviet Nuclear threat. Great logic there.

According to Ryan, he'll raise revenues by "closing loopholes." Now, we don't know what these loopholes are, and Mr Ryan basically just told us, "Don't worry about it." Ironically, Mitt Romney probably used more of these loopholes than we even know exist. Don't worry though, I'm sure those are the loopholes that'll be eliminated, not things like mortgage tax shelters and things that the common people take advantage of. Right? I mean when Mitt Romney somehow has over a 100 million in his IRA that allows a maximum contribution of 30,000 a year, that sounds like an issue, seeing as how its all tax-free. But don't worry about that, let us think about the loopholes.

Mr. Ryan identifies rising health care costs as a problem. Not once has he explained how he wants to solve the problem.

Also, while we're slashing Social Security/Medicare, since the average person on medicare will pay almost 7000$ more, lets go ahead and cut education funding by 33%. Because remember, education isn't important, even though the US is consistently falling behind inmost educational categories outside of the Collegiate system. Its fine though, the Republican's will fix everything. While we're at it, lets double the interest rate on student loans, even though Student Debt has already surpassed the credit card debt. Makes plenty of sense, after all, students are the ones in a position to pay for stuff.

Honestly, neither party is worth shit anymore. I'm not going to sing Obama's praises either, but Paul Ryan is living in a fairy tale world which simply is not reasonable. And Mitt Romney hasn't shown me how he plans to help his "middle class brethren" with his taxation plan that basically just helps the wealthy. Although that's essentially the agenda for both parties (make the wealthy wealthier, lobbying has to pay off somehow), the Republicans are so overt about it, its kind of sickening. The state of American politics is kind of pathetic these days, with both parties offering a pretty horrible choice, and basically being force to choose whose less of an idiot.

Also, on the subject of the AARP lying to people...really?

How about Death Panels, and the VAST amount of misinformation propagated about the Affordable Healthcare Act. Lets look even more recent. Romney lying about Obama trying to remove military voting rights (completely false), while his party pushes to disenfranchise as many Democratic leaning voters as humanly possible. Not even trying to persuade them in an argument, just straight up taking away their right to vote with Voter ID laws and the like. Lying sucks, but don't act like its only Democrats.