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  1. #37
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    Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent



    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Nope.

    He's very popular in his district, but it's a district that does not hold much weight in state wide elections. It encompasses Racine, Kenosha and much of the plains to the west. State-wide, he's not a very popular figure and I do not see him being able to swing the state red, especially when you consider WI has not gone for the GOP since the 80's.

    WI is beholden to two cities, Milwaukee and Madison. Neither of which will ever go red.

    I think the narrative is written on him in Florida as well, accurate or not, seniors are not going to perceive him as some on the right are hoping. Seniors (LV's ages 65+) vote in lock step with the Dems, especially in Florida. The only exception to this was McCain 4 years ago. Polling since 2008 show overwhelming support for Obama by the seniors and I don't think Ryan changes that equation. In a state that's VERY close, it may very well come down to the senior vote in FL.

    I can see him getting some traction in Ohio though. I think his message plays well there.
    Link? not doubting just wanna see what you're basing that off of.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin





  2. #38

    Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Nope.

    He's very popular in his district, but it's a district that does not hold much weight in state wide elections. It encompasses Racine, Kenosha and much of the plains to the west. State-wide, he's not a very popular figure and I do not see him being able to swing the state red, especially when you consider WI has not gone for the GOP since the 80's.

    WI is beholden to two cities, Milwaukee and Madison. Neither of which will ever go red.

    I think the narrative is written on him in Florida as well, accurate or not, seniors are not going to perceive him as some on the right are hoping. Seniors (LV's ages 65+) vote in lock step with the Dems, especially in Florida. The only exception to this was McCain 4 years ago. Polling since 2008 show overwhelming support for Obama by the seniors and I don't think Ryan changes that equation. In a state that's VERY close, it may very well come down to the senior vote in FL.

    I can see him getting some traction in Ohio though. I think his message plays well there.
    All due respect, but I still don't agree:

    http://www.newsmax.com/newswidget/zo...n=widgetphase1

    Zogby already says he's seeing a jump in poll numbers in swing states, which is exactly what I said picking Ryan should do over trying to nab one state.

    And I don't know how Ryan won't play in Florida considering his medicare plan doesn't hurt them at all. Once he reminds Florida seniors that Obama cut Medicare by $700 billion to fund Obamacare, I think Florida will swing back pretty quickly.

    Patience Houston, patience.




  3. #39
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    Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    Link? not doubting just wanna see what you're basing that off of.
    Rasmussen just released a poll with his popularity rating in WI. It's only at 39%. 35% have no opinion of him. You can spin that both ways, of course.

    Quote Originally Posted by StingerNLG View Post
    All due respect, but I still don't agree:

    http://www.newsmax.com/newswidget/zo...n=widgetphase1

    Zogby already says he's seeing a jump in poll numbers in swing states, which is exactly what I said picking Ryan should do over trying to nab one state.

    And I don't know how Ryan won't play in Florida considering his medicare plan doesn't hurt them at all. Once he reminds Florida seniors that Obama cut Medicare by $700 billion to fund Obamacare, I think Florida will swing back pretty quickly.
    Zogby is the only poll showing that then. As I pointed out, he's not very well liked in WI and Gallup just put out a poll saying he has numbers similar to Dan Quayle. Any "jump" is going to be short-term and Zogby himself calls it a bump in the link. Not to mention, this particular poll puts them tied. Tied is where they've been all summer.

    As for Florida and the seniors, I don't doubt what you say. I agree with what Obamacare and the Ryan Plan means to to seniors. My point is that the narrative is already written. You're arguing what the plan says and means. I am arguing that it does not mater. That it's already in their heads that Ryan is the dude that will walk then into the grave. And you can thank the AARP for that. They have been lying to their members for decades and they lap it up.
    Last edited by HoustonRaven; 08-13-2012 at 01:10 PM.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  4. #40
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    Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Rasmussen just released a poll with his popularity rating in WI. It's only at 39%. 35% have no opinion of him. You can spin that both ways, of course.
    At least he has more positives then negatives, ya know?


    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Zogby is the only poll showing that then. As I pointed out, he's not very well liked in WI and Gallup just put out a poll saying he has numbers similar to Dan Quayle. Any "jump" is going to be short-term.

    As for Florida and the seniors, I don't doubt what you say. I agree with what Obamacare and the Ryan Plan means to to seniors. My point is that the narrative is already written. You're arguing what the plan says and means. I am arguing that it does not mater. That it's already in their heads that Ryan is the dude that will walk then into the grave. And you can thank the AARP for that. They have been lying to their members for decades and they lap it up.
    Do you think it's possible... or even likely that Romney/Ryan can inform them of this to a point that the narrative changes?
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  5. #41
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    Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    At least he has more positives then negatives, ya know?
    Yeah, but you still need to look at the demographics of the state. It's very similar to Maryland in some ways. Much like Baltimore and PG County control MD, two cities control the state. You have Milwaukee; which is Obama 100%. It's a pro-union city and the GOP hardly has a presence there. They hated Scott Walker. Madison is even more blue. It's a college town and the states capital.

    Suppose Ryan improves his approval numbers there. I still don't think it's enough to overcome the influence of those two hyper-partisan areas of the state.

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    Do you think it's possible... or even likely that Romney/Ryan can inform them of this to a point that the narrative changes?
    Possible? Yes.

    Likely? Jury is out, IMO. The fastest way to change that message is the media. I don't see the MSM helping anytime soon. I'd like to see Ryan hold some old fashioned town hall style meetings with seniors and take a ton of questions from them. That way you don't need the media. Reagan was the master of this. He bypassed the media frequently.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  6. #42
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    Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Possible? Yes.

    Likely? Jury is out, IMO. The fastest way to change that message is the media. I don't see the MSM helping anytime soon. I'd like to see Ryan hold some old fashioned town hall style meetings with seniors and take a ton of questions from them. That way you don't need the media. Reagan was the master of this. He bypassed the media frequently.
    My thoughts EXACTLY. Maybe at the villages.. where you're sure to get nothing but seniors.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  7. #43
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    Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    My thoughts EXACTLY. Maybe at the villages.. where you're sure to get nothing but seniors.
    The Villages, Palm Beach, Ft. Myers, etc ....
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  8. #44

    Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent

    There are always two notable jumps in any cycle.
    One after the VP announcement, and one after the convention.
    The trick is to sustain them among the attacks, exposures of truth, etc.




  9. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Rasmussen just released a poll with his popularity rating in WI. It's only at 39%. 35% have no opinion of him. You can spin that both ways, of course.



    Zogby is the only poll showing that then. As I pointed out, he's not very well liked in WI and Gallup just put out a poll saying he has numbers similar to Dan Quayle.
    Washington Post now has a similar poll showing Ryan has better favorables, and he is highest among seniors.

    As for Florida and the seniors, I don't doubt what you say. I agree with what Obamacare and the Ryan Plan means to to seniors. My point is that the narrative is already written. You're arguing what the plan says and means. I am arguing that it does not mater. That it's already in their heads that Ryan is the dude that will walk then into the grave. And you can thank the AARP for that. They have been lying to their members for decades and they lap it up.
    But I think that is going to be easy to defuse. Romney is already down there today and Ryan will be down there next week. And though CBS edited this out of their 60 minutes interview on TV, its still on the web version, Ryan's mom lives in Florida and uses the Medicare system. Bet me she makes an appearance or two on the trail in Florida.


    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2




  10. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Yeah, but you still need to look at the demographics of the state. It's very similar to Maryland in some ways. Much like Baltimore and PG County control MD, two cities control the state. You have Milwaukee; which is Obama 100%. It's a pro-union city and the GOP hardly has a presence there. They hated Scott Walker. Madison is even more blue. It's a college town and the states capital.
    And yet with that Scott Walker still won election and the recall. I think there is an opening for Romney to win the state by riding Walker's wave.



    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2




  11. #47
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    Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent

    Quote Originally Posted by StingerNLG View Post
    And yet with that Scott Walker still won election and the recall. I think there is an opening for Romney to win the state by riding Walker's wave.



    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2
    One thing though... Walker won the recall with about 500,000 less people voting then voted in the 08 election.

    Who knows what would have happened had the same turn out shown up.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  12. #48
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    Re: Paul Ryan VP announcement imminent

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    As for Florida and the seniors, I don't doubt what you say. I agree with what Obamacare and the Ryan Plan means to to seniors. My point is that the narrative is already written. You're arguing what the plan says and means. I am arguing that it does not mater. That it's already in their heads that Ryan is the dude that will walk then into the grave. And you can thank the AARP for that. They have been lying to their members for decades and they lap it up.
    So they won't watch the debates? I'll take Ryan against SlowJoe any day of the week. He can convey the message that needs to be told.




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