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  1. #49

    Re: The REAL concern from Thursday...



    Jumping back into the discussion here...and for the record I want the best refs on the field and I want them full time employees of the NFL so they learn their craft. I don't care what it takes to do it, I just want it done, and really don't care the cost. As a PSL holder I feel like I deserve the right to watch a game without the officials deciding the outcome (at least on a regular basis). Agree with everyones viewpoints and ideas as we are tossing around ideas that might work...but in this post I would argue how you make this work over the long term...meaning 5+ years. Two ways to do this, in my humble opinion, when you look 5+ years or so into the future.
    Scenerio One- We assume that our "ordinary" refrees, the ones holding out, are the cream of the crop. I personally believe they are or they wouldn't be there. They make their fair share of mistakes but they are humans trying to officiate the fastest game in the world with the most media coverage to expose every mistake they make (and if the media doesn't we will beat them to shit on the message boards ...there will always be criticism (and most rightfully so). So, to get them back on the field, and full time with a major pay rise, benefits, pension, etc...the NFL will have to pay. Going to be trustworthy here and assume the 3% from a post above, this is a lot of money, but from a percentage standpoint, not "that much". Truth be told, I think for the average full time ref the average pay will be somewhere around $500,000 (which would drop that 3% down to about 1.5%) with benefits/pension after x number of years. Sounds like a lot of money (and it is) but lets put it into perspective. Over a 20 game season, 4 preseason and 16 regular season games, $500,000 a year plays out to $25,000 a game. We have players making over 1 million dollars a game. This means it would take an average ref making $25,000 a game 40 games to make as much as some players make in one game. Basically, it would take a ref, under a new inflated pay structure, 2 seasons to make as much as an Elite player makes in 3 hours of work.NFL does this and we get our "normal" refs back.
    Scenario Two- We go with the replacement refs and hire them full time. Just throwing out numbers here but lets say they will do this full time for $200,000. NFL trains them and after 3 years they are leaps and bounds better than what we have now (which I don't think will happen). Now we go to a business model and supply and demand 101 (sorry-I live in the business, mathematical world). They realize how good they are and that others can't do the same job they are doing without significant training and growing pains. They now have the supply (their skills) and the NFL will always have the demand for top notch refs...they will demand more money for their services. Let them go and you are about to train another ref and it will take years for them to become as competent as the one that just left.
    To put it simply, at least in my opinion- we have the best refs right now (albeit frustrating at times) and we should pay them-they will only become better if hired full time-increase my ticket price by less than 5 dollars and it will pay for the full time refs. The other option-go with the replacements-takes three years of full time work for them to be masters of their craft, and then they will want as much as the "ordianry" refs are asking for now (and rightfully so). Back to the point- pay our refs now or put up with replacement refs for three years who at that point will be as good as our refs now and then they demand the pay...Supply and Demand my friends...GO RAVENS!




  2. #50
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    Re: The REAL concern from Thursday...

    Quote Originally Posted by psuasskicker View Post
    You know what worries me most after watching Thursday? The refs. This is an absolute disaster waiting to happen. A big part of it is getting calls wrong, which can impact game outcomes. But I'm also really concerned about players getting hurt. They were slow on whistles, and flat out don't seem to know the rules.

    This whole thing really pisses me off. The Browns just sold for $1B, and the combined salary cap of the league hovers around $3.8B. They are arguing over literally $500k - $1MM. It's utterly ridiculous these two sides can't come to an agreement, and I'm firmly, 100% in the camp of the refs deserving more than what these cheap-ass owners are offering them, because the refs have one of the most important and most difficult jobs on the field.

    - C -

    I would BLAME THE NFL itself, they have enough money to Double all the REFS salary and still have plenty of money.

    If they were to pay them a decent amount, i don't think us Fans or the Coaches and Players would have to worry about VEGAS getting to the REFS to change the Outcome. Lets be honest, we know it has happened. Can't pin point when or where but a game that comes to mind is in 2010. STEALERS @ DOLPHINS where the Dolphins should have won, when Big Ben clearly fumbled and Miami recovered. Game over. Had the Dolphins win that game, the RAVENS would have won the AFC Division and we would have had homefield and possibly gone to the superbowl, guess we will never know. That game alone made me think the Refs were throwing the Game.

    IT WAS JUST TOO OBVIOUS IMO.

    If the REFS were paid more money, i don't think we would Refs playing Favortism imo.

    With the New Refs, i think it might be positive because they are New and i don't think they would play Favortism AS MUCH, because i think they would be too worried about making the right calls and they would be worried about losing their jobs.

    Anyways, from what i hear, the N.F.L is going to get a deal done with the original Refs. Which is good but bad at the same time.
    Because the Fans and N.F.L Teams are going to suffer because the Original Refs are missing their Preseason to knock off the Rust, just like the N.F.L Players are knocking their rust off.

    The Refs will be playing Catch up, i hope if the Refs come back. They come back this week so they will have atleast 2 preseason games to adjust for the regular season games.




  3. #51
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    Officiating rumor

    Latest rumor is that NFL will go with one-man officiating crew to spot ball and do everything else from the booth




  4. #52
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    Re: The REAL concern from Thursday...

    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    3% of the gross becomes a huge chunk of the net. And yes, I realize you were taking it to an extreme to make your point, but I still am not sure I agree with the point. The other sports' annual salaries are based on way more games, so their per game compensation is a more realistic data point, not annual compensation.

    My problem with the (old) officials is that they are self-important. I realize the league itself is issuing a constant stream of nebulous "points of emphasis" and subjective safety-related new rules, but the established, old officials have become a group that imposes itself into the outcomes of games way more than they should.

    And this is primarily by OVER-calling fouls. And often huge fouls in crucial, game-changing situations.

    There are two kinds of "blown" calls. A missed call, and a made call that shouldn't have been made. The latter, to me, is way way worse than the former. Calling a phantom hold on Torrey Smith to negate a 70+ yard TD run in a huge game is unforgivable. Calling a roughing-the-passer on Suggs when his hand hits Kerry Collins' shoulderpad on a 3rd and 10 incompletion from the Tenn 20 with the score 10-6 and 6 minutes left in the game is unforgivable.

    There is simply no or not enough judgment used by NFL refs. There is no NFL-equivalent to the NBA's swallow the whistle down the stretch (so as not to affect the outcome). Missing a borderline or minor or away from the play holding call is way way less harmful to the game. Not calling a maybe-tap to the QB's head on a crucial drive-stopping incompletion; not calling a tickytack arm-jostling 50 yard PI in the 4th quarter of low-scoring game, etc etc, are all infinitely preferable to calling them. To me the refs operate in an "if-in-doubt-throw-a-flag" mode that is not needed (if keeping the game "fair" is the true goal of the officials, which it should be) and is not wanted (because it more often affects the outcome of games).

    I just hope that going forward there is some mechanism for poorly-graded officials to be weeded out of the process. And I hope that the afraid-to-call-attention-to-themselves scabs call less huge game-changing sketchy fouls, everyone realizes that this is the way the real refs should be officiating the games, and the league starts working to that end (by weeding out the refs that think their job is not to keep the game fair but rather to call any possible foul they can possibly justify, no matter how little/much it affected the play and no matter the game situation).

    <end rant>
    I agree with all of this. I'd also like to add that the locked out refs have different sets of rules for different players. We all know that roughing the passer isnt the same for Flacco, Vick or Blaine Gabbert that it is for Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. But you've also got guys like Darrell Revis who has his own rules. Revis gets away with crap that Webb never could. The scab officials need to improve 10 fold but the unfamiliarity with the players can't be a bad thing.




  5. #53
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    Wink Re: Officiating rumor

    Quote Originally Posted by nickh0801 View Post
    Latest rumor is that NFL will go with one-man officiating crew to spot ball and do everything else from the booth
    Newest NFL rumor : All refs gone...Every fan will have an electronic device at their seat to vote on each play. The NFL has factored in that it's likely that every home team will win, but that was downplayed because revenue$ would be up by 25% or more... Bc




  6. #54
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    Re: The REAL concern from Thursday...

    Quote Originally Posted by PeRK82 View Post
    ... i don't think us Fans or the Coaches and Players would have to worry about VEGAS getting to the REFS to change the Outcome. Lets be honest, we know it has happened...
    Wow.

    Vegas has no interest in fixing games. They do just fine without any manipulation.

    This flies in the face of the most remedial aspects of betting / wagering. Vegas gets their money on wins and loses. They literally have no interest on the outcome. Bets take place BEFORE the game, with people placing cash on both sides of the line.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  7. #55
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    Re: The REAL concern from Thursday...

    Quote Originally Posted by Beau Petard View Post
    Just to add some math to the situation, consider:
    > 32 teams each play 16 games each season - thats 512 team-games, or 256 games
    >7 officials for each game - that's 1792 game officials needed each regular season
    > I think they have an extra guy available in case of an injury, so add 256 -- 2048 "game officials"
    > Assume the highest salary cited earlier in this thread for MLB umpires, at $141,000/year -- even if each NFL official earned $141K EACH GAME!, multiply that by 2048 and you get $288,768,000. That is not quite 3.25% of the $9 BILLION + the league grosses each season.

    >Assume the bottle of Cab Sauv that SWMBO and I split tonite, PLUS the three Molson Canadians I've had so far MAY have impaired my statistical analysis, but from what I know of private enterprise, it doesn't seem unreasonable to allot around 3-4% for an element of the game that is way more tham overhead and G&A.

    Why is it such a stretch to support the concept that the NFL officials should be full-time employees?
    I have an issue with your math. There are only up to 16 games in any given week which means only, at 7 officials a game, a minimum of 112 officials, not 1792. It would be 1792 if there were 256 games a WEEK, not the whole season.




  8. #56
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    Re: Officiating rumor

    Quote Originally Posted by nickh0801 View Post
    Latest rumor is that NFL will go with one-man officiating crew to spot ball and do everything else from the booth
    UPDATE 2:57 p.m. ET: The NFL says that the possibility of one-man crews has not been discussed or considered.
    "What would you give for the man beside you?"





  9. #57
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    Re: Officiating rumor

    St.Matt-
    Sorry, maybe I should have added more text to my numbers!

    ---> 16 games each week x 7 officials = 112 officials needed each week
    ---> 16 week schedule x 112 officials needed each week = 1792 "game officials" (or saying it another way, there are 1792 assignments for the season, not counting a back-up official for each game - the 256 I added - or any playoffs)

    What some may take issue with is the amount paid to each official for each game assignment, all 1792 of them. I assumed a back-up official for each game, who may not "work" but has to be available, and assigned him the same pay as each active official for the game. Thus, I added 256 assignments for back-ups for the season to 1792, the total number of assignments for the entire season, or a total of 2048.

    Then, being an extremely generous guy, I paid each NFL official the top ANNUAL salary - $141K - of an MLB umpire for EACH GAME. Thus, 2048 assignments (for the NFL regular season) x $141,000 = $288,768,000! That's a shitload of money, yet only amounts to a very "small" % of the NFL's annual gross.

    Let's assume that an NFL official only gets $25K per assignment, a sum that seems very generous no matter how you slice it. Multiply 2048 game assignments for the season times 25k, and you get $51.2 million, which is an RCH more than 1/2% of the league's annual gross. Can anyone name ANY US or international business that operates with less than that for overhead and G&A?




  10. #58

    Re: The REAL concern from Thursday...

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Wow.

    Vegas has no interest in fixing games. They do just fine without any manipulation.

    This flies in the face of the most remedial aspects of betting / wagering. Vegas gets their money on wins and loses. They literally have no interest on the outcome. Bets take place BEFORE the game, with people placing cash on both sides of the line.
    You're right, It's not Vegas fixing the games, but i'm sure others have gotten to the refs.




  11. #59
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    Re: The REAL concern from Thursday...

    s-hater--
    Just ask Bubba Smith!!!




  12. #60

    Re: Officiating rumor

    Quote Originally Posted by Beau Petard View Post
    St.Matt-
    Sorry, maybe I should have added more text to my numbers!

    ---> 16 games each week x 7 officials = 112 officials needed each week
    ---> 16 week schedule x 112 officials needed each week = 1792 "game officials" (or saying it another way, there are 1792 assignments for the season, not counting a back-up official for each game - the 256 I added - or any playoffs)

    What some may take issue with is the amount paid to each official for each game assignment, all 1792 of them. I assumed a back-up official for each game, who may not "work" but has to be available, and assigned him the same pay as each active official for the game. Thus, I added 256 assignments for back-ups for the season to 1792, the total number of assignments for the entire season, or a total of 2048.

    Then, being an extremely generous guy, I paid each NFL official the top ANNUAL salary - $141K - of an MLB umpire for EACH GAME. Thus, 2048 assignments (for the NFL regular season) x $141,000 = $288,768,000! That's a shitload of money, yet only amounts to a very "small" % of the NFL's annual gross.

    Let's assume that an NFL official only gets $25K per assignment, a sum that seems very generous no matter how you slice it. Multiply 2048 game assignments for the season times 25k, and you get $51.2 million, which is an RCH more than 1/2% of the league's annual gross. Can anyone name ANY US or international business that operates with less than that for overhead and G&A?
    This ^^^ simple SUPPLY AND DEMAND. The NFL makes a shitload of money and the refs want their fair share (just like the players, the owners, etc...). It sounds like a lot but you have to put it in perspective. Go with the replacements, they will be cheaper in the short term, but then, when they are finally trained and "good", will realize their worth and demand the 1/2% of the pie. The NFL is a money making machine, the refs are just trying to get their slice of the pie (not that I neccesarily agree with it, but they have a point when looking at the income of the NFL and what they are wanting from a percentage standpoint).




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