Obama Gives Back MI in Latest RCP EV Update

[HoustonRaven]

Obama loses steam in MI and gives up his hold there. It's now listed as a toss up.

Not sure why this is actually. RCP still lists it as a leaning Obama when you drill down into the polls themselves. Only one poll, the most recent, has Romney in the lead so that should not sway the average into toss up.

Very odd. I hope these guys are not starting to lean a certain way. I have always liked and respected RCP as they've been neutral in the past.

[NCRAVEN]

I think it's the average that moves things for them....

[HoustonRaven]

I think it's the average that moves things for them....

Yeah, I know.

And if you look at the last 5 polls, all but one have it for Obama. A new 5 point poll for Romney shouldn't have changed the average all that much.

RCP Average 7/21 - 8/16 -- 48.4 43.0 Obama +5.4
Baydoun/Foster (D) 8/16 - 8/16 1733 LV 44 48 Romney +4
Mitchell Research 8/13 - 8/13 1079 LV 49 44 Obama +5
EPIC-MRA 7/24 - 7/31 600 LV 48 42 Obama +6
Rasmussen Reports 7/23 - 7/23 500 LV 48 42 Obama +6
PPP (D) 7/21 - 7/23 579 RV 53 39 Obama +14

[NCRAVEN]

True.

IMO, I don't think that PPP(D) poll holds much weight. I wish RCP would not even include them, especially when they do RV polls.

[AirFlacco]

I said a month ago that people aren't even watching yet, only the hard core political junkies like us. As we're getting closer to the conventions people are starting to wake up and watch.

TV said last night that people are appalled at these sleezy attacks but the polls remain
close. No way should it be this tight in this economy. Ask Jimmy Carter and his economy
wasn't half as bad.

With this Mich poll and the Cook County poll, people are starting to watch and they don't like what they're seeing in these Romney attacks. Tricky Dick wasn't this bad.

[AirFlacco]

This FOX poll has Mitt leading OBY by 4 pt - 48-44%.

Mitt clobbered Santorium there in the primary by
focusing on jobs.

Rasmussen has Mitt up by +1 overall.


http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19...ahead-of-obama

[HoustonRaven]

True.

IMO, I don't think that PPP(D) poll holds much weight. I wish RCP would not even include them, especially when they do RV polls.

I don't either but remove that poll and I still have a hard time making the state a toss up at this point.

[Haloti92]

The bare minimum (most likely minimum) Romney needs to win are:

all the states he has fairly comfortable lead in

PLUS

North Carolina
Ohio
Florida
Virginia

PLUS any single other toss-up, battleground, close state (just 1 of following):

New Hampshire
Iowa
Colorado
Nevada
Wisconsin


I don't see any possible way he wins without North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. I could imagine some ways he could win without Virginia (13), namely if he wins Wisconsin and Colorado, but they are longer shots.

Of course it is really early, and there is also a chance Romney wins all of the toss-ups plus Michigan and even maybe Pennsylvania, but I think such a chance is miniscule. Obama has the worst record ever, and has made his fair share of gaffes, and has had his gutter attacks recognized as such, but he still remains tied or slightly ahead; that doesn't bode well for Romney, and almost guarantees any Romney win will be a squeaker.

[NCRAVEN]

I don't either but remove that poll and I still have a hard time making the state a toss up at this point.

After looking at the polls they list as toss up, it appears it's all the ones that either guy is under 50%. So while BHO has a decent lead he's under 50%.

[AirFlacco]

Politicol.com has a poll from Badou/
Foster giving the lead for Michigan to Romney by 48-44%, same as the Fox poll above. It also included 1733
likely voters.

As for those states listed two posts above, OBY just needs FLA or OHio to win plus a couple of others.

If he gets both Mitt will be giving his concession speech long before the polls close in California.


It also gives Mich's senate seate to Hoekstra, the GOP by 2%.

Most of the others go to OBY of course. It's a DEM site.





http://www.pollheadlines.com/

[NCRAVEN]

I tried reading the specifics of that poll (Baydoun/Foster (D)) and they didn't list anything like how many R or D were polled.

Any poll that doesn't list the specifics I take with a grain of salt.

[AirFlacco]

I said it was from a DEM site so giving it to a GOP is strange to begin with. They didn't poll all Dems unless they are all voting for GOP.

It also polled likely voters the only pre-requisite we talked about before. Rasmussen was about the only one that did this.

It has the same results as the FOX poll I posted above.

Take it or leave it. I posted something positive from a
DEM site.

[StingerNLG]

I must agree with NC. Show me a Rassmussen poll showing the same results and I will pay more serious attention.

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2

[NCRAVEN]

Who knows, maybe these polls are correct. It wouldn't surprise me if they were.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...ay_115176.html

The Republican National Committee has pounced on new polling data in Michigan and Wisconsin that show President Obama losing ground to Mitt Romney after the latter announced Paul Ryan as his running mate. And in what may -- or may not -- have been a coincidence, Vice President Joe Biden made a pair of campaign stops in Minnesota on Tuesday and will make several more in Michigan today.

[AirFlacco]

Like i said, it was from a DEM site. Everything else was pro OBY.

Here are Karl Rove's comments from last week and Ras has Mitt ahead by +2 today:

________________________
Wednesday's Gallup poll had President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney essentially tied, with Mr. Obama at 47% and Mr. Romney at 46%. That's good news for the challenger: Mr. Romney has absorbed a punishing three-month Obama television barrage that drained the incumbent's war chest. Historically, undecided voters tend to break late for the challenger.
___________________________

That is what Dick Morris has said for months, that the un-decideds vote for the challenger everytime and he has them giving it to Mitt.

[NCRAVEN]

I'm not going to predict it will happen, but I'll give you another state to watch:

Connecticut, I think that one has a descent shot of going Red.

[HoustonRaven]

Certainly possible.

McMahon is surging right now and her message seems to be resonating. Remains to be seen if that will translate into trouble for Obama though.