Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 12 of 21

Hybrid View

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Houston, TX Y'all
    Posts
    22,253

    Obama Gives Back MI in Latest RCP EV Update



    Obama loses steam in MI and gives up his hold there. It's now listed as a toss up.

    Not sure why this is actually. RCP still lists it as a leaning Obama when you drill down into the polls themselves. Only one poll, the most recent, has Romney in the lead so that should not sway the average into toss up.

    Very odd. I hope these guys are not starting to lean a certain way. I have always liked and respected RCP as they've been neutral in the past.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Clayton,NC
    Posts
    7,290

    Re: Obama Gives Back MI in Latest RCP EV Update

    I think it's the average that moves things for them....
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  3. #3
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Houston, TX Y'all
    Posts
    22,253

    Re: Obama Gives Back MI in Latest RCP EV Update

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    I think it's the average that moves things for them....
    Yeah, I know.

    And if you look at the last 5 polls, all but one have it for Obama. A new 5 point poll for Romney shouldn't have changed the average all that much.

    RCP Average 7/21 - 8/16 -- 48.4 43.0 Obama +5.4
    Baydoun/Foster (D) 8/16 - 8/16 1733 LV 44 48 Romney +4
    Mitchell Research 8/13 - 8/13 1079 LV 49 44 Obama +5
    EPIC-MRA 7/24 - 7/31 600 LV 48 42 Obama +6
    Rasmussen Reports 7/23 - 7/23 500 LV 48 42 Obama +6
    PPP (D) 7/21 - 7/23 579 RV 53 39 Obama +14
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Clayton,NC
    Posts
    7,290

    Re: Obama Gives Back MI in Latest RCP EV Update

    True.

    IMO, I don't think that PPP(D) poll holds much weight. I wish RCP would not even include them, especially when they do RV polls.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  5. #5
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    11,427
    Blog Entries
    2

    Re: Obama Gives Back MI in Latest RCP EV Update

    I said a month ago that people aren't even watching yet, only the hard core political junkies like us. As we're getting closer to the conventions people are starting to wake up and watch.

    TV said last night that people are appalled at these sleezy attacks but the polls remain
    close. No way should it be this tight in this economy. Ask Jimmy Carter and his economy
    wasn't half as bad.

    With this Mich poll and the Cook County poll, people are starting to watch and they don't like what they're seeing in these Romney attacks. Tricky Dick wasn't this bad.
    UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU.




  6. #6
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    11,427
    Blog Entries
    2

    Re: Obama Gives Back MI in Latest RCP EV Update

    This FOX poll has Mitt leading OBY by 4 pt - 48-44%.

    Mitt clobbered Santorium there in the primary by
    focusing on jobs.

    Rasmussen has Mitt up by +1 overall.


    http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/story/19...ahead-of-obama
    UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU.




  7. #7
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Houston, TX Y'all
    Posts
    22,253
    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    True.

    IMO, I don't think that PPP(D) poll holds much weight. I wish RCP would not even include them, especially when they do RV polls.
    I don't either but remove that poll and I still have a hard time making the state a toss up at this point.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  8. #8

    Re: Obama Gives Back MI in Latest RCP EV Update

    The bare minimum (most likely minimum) Romney needs to win are:

    all the states he has fairly comfortable lead in

    PLUS

    North Carolina
    Ohio
    Florida
    Virginia

    PLUS any single other toss-up, battleground, close state (just 1 of following):

    New Hampshire
    Iowa
    Colorado
    Nevada
    Wisconsin


    I don't see any possible way he wins without North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. I could imagine some ways he could win without Virginia (13), namely if he wins Wisconsin and Colorado, but they are longer shots.

    Of course it is really early, and there is also a chance Romney wins all of the toss-ups plus Michigan and even maybe Pennsylvania, but I think such a chance is miniscule. Obama has the worst record ever, and has made his fair share of gaffes, and has had his gutter attacks recognized as such, but he still remains tied or slightly ahead; that doesn't bode well for Romney, and almost guarantees any Romney win will be a squeaker.




  9. #9
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Clayton,NC
    Posts
    7,290

    Re: Obama Gives Back MI in Latest RCP EV Update

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    I don't either but remove that poll and I still have a hard time making the state a toss up at this point.
    After looking at the polls they list as toss up, it appears it's all the ones that either guy is under 50%. So while BHO has a decent lead he's under 50%.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  10. #10
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    11,427
    Blog Entries
    2

    Re: Obama Gives Back MI in Latest RCP EV Update

    Politicol.com has a poll from Badou/
    Foster giving the lead for Michigan to Romney by 48-44%, same as the Fox poll above. It also included 1733
    likely voters.

    As for those states listed two posts above, OBY just needs FLA or OHio to win plus a couple of others.

    If he gets both Mitt will be giving his concession speech long before the polls close in California.


    It also gives Mich's senate seate to Hoekstra, the GOP by 2%.

    Most of the others go to OBY of course. It's a DEM site.





    http://www.pollheadlines.com/
    UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU.




  11. #11
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Location
    Clayton,NC
    Posts
    7,290

    Re: Obama Gives Back MI in Latest RCP EV Update

    I tried reading the specifics of that poll (Baydoun/Foster (D)) and they didn't list anything like how many R or D were polled.

    Any poll that doesn't list the specifics I take with a grain of salt.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  12. #12
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    11,427
    Blog Entries
    2

    Re: Obama Gives Back MI in Latest RCP EV Update

    I said it was from a DEM site so giving it to a GOP is strange to begin with. They didn't poll all Dems unless they are all voting for GOP.

    It also polled likely voters the only pre-requisite we talked about before. Rasmussen was about the only one that did this.

    It has the same results as the FOX poll I posted above.

    Take it or leave it. I posted something positive from a
    DEM site.
    UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU.




Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Russell Street Report Website Design by D3Corp Ocean City Maryland