RCP Electoral Map Thread

**HoustonRaven** · 09-21-2012, 11:24 AM

The "Blame the Polls" meme was the domain of the Dems in 2010, now our side is picking it up?

Come on.

Things are not well in the Romney camp. He's had a ton of bad news to pounce on going back 3 months ago and he's basically a mute at this point and the result is almost no change in the polls.

What Noonan is saying (and others) is he needs to not rely on the the MSM and take his message to the people directly. He isn't doing that. He isn't even coming close to doing that. He feels (incorrectly, IMO) that if he's on the talking head shows on the alphabet networks, he can change / shape the narrative.

Ain't going to happen.

**NCRAVEN** · 09-21-2012, 12:54 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

The "Blame the Polls" meme was the domain of the Dems in 2010, now our side is picking it up?

Come on.

Things are not well in the Romney camp. He's had a ton of bad news to pounce on going back 3 months ago and he's basically a mute at this point and the result is almost no change in the polls.

What Noonan is saying (and others) is he needs to not rely on the the MSM and take his message to the people directly. He isn't doing that. He isn't even coming close to doing that. He feels (incorrectly, IMO) that if he's on the talking head shows on the alphabet networks, he can change / shape the narrative.

Ain't going to happen.

I guess confirmation bias is affecting us both than.

BTW - if the polls were so accurate, why did that Romney tape come out so early? You're a smart guy, you know the closer it comes out to election day the more it stays on peoples mind. They released it now, because they needed to.

**HoustonRaven** · 09-21-2012, 12:58 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

I guess confirmation bias is affecting us both than.

BTW - if the polls were so accurate, why did that Romney tape come out so early? You're a smart guy, you know the closer it comes out to election day the more it stays on peoples mind. They released it now, because they needed to.

"They" was a news outlet and wanted eyes on their product.

If this was leaked by the Obama camp, I'd agree with you. Except this was a left leaning news outfit and did what any other news outlet in the country would have done -- released it right away.

**NCRAVEN** · 09-21-2012, 01:15 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

"They" was a news outlet and wanted eyes on their product.

If this was leaked by the Obama camp, I'd agree with you. Except this was a left leaning news outfit and did what any other news outlet in the country would have done -- released it right away.

"They" as in the people who want Obama relected, and they as in the people who "tried to figure how best to use this tape".

You're going to believe what you want and so am I. But I was just looking at the Fox news poll in VA (BHO +5) guess what... they oversampled Dems by...? 5, yet the electorate has (R) +3.

The polls are just simply over sampling democrats, plain and simple. And don't forget about voter enthusiasm
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...over-democrats

**HoustonRaven** · 09-21-2012, 02:21 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

"They" as in the people who want Obama relected, and they as in the people who "tried to figure how best to use this tape".

You're going to believe what you want and so am I. But I was just looking at the Fox news poll in VA (BHO +5) guess what... they oversampled Dems by...? 5, yet the electorate has (R) +3.

The polls are just simply over sampling democrats, plain and simple. And don't forget about voter enthusiasm
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...over-democrats

You counter the people who want to get Obama reelected with a site that does not want Obama to get reelected? You don't see the irony there?

Right now, I give as much credence to the Breitbart as I do Mother Jones. Both are agenda driven, neither are going to go out of their way for facts.

Yes, we disagree. But I am using past history and Political Science as my guide. Mitt is in trouble. Plain and simple. His message is not getting out and when it does, it's stale and boring. This should be a landslide right now. Instead, we have to hope for a miracle in the debates or an October surprise from Mitt if he has a chance of winning.

**HoustonRaven** · 09-21-2012, 02:25 PM

I'd also add the timing was pretty damn perfect.

Instead of talking about our embassies falling like dominoes or the (yet again) horrible economic news, the media is consumed by a scandalous leaked video.

**NCRAVEN** · 09-21-2012, 02:39 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

You counter the people who want to get Obama reelected with a site that does not want Obama to get reelected? You don't see the irony there?

No, I don't see it. The point I wanted you to see was their summary of the numbers of advantage in voter enthusiasm.

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Yes, we disagree. But I am using past history and Political Science as my guide. Mitt is in trouble. Plain and simple. His message is not getting out and when it does, it's stale and boring. This should be a landslide right now. Instead, we have to hope for a miracle in the debates or an October surprise from Mitt if he has a chance of winning.

What are you basing that on?

**HoustonRaven** · 09-21-2012, 03:04 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

No, I don't see it. The point I wanted you to see was their summary of the numbers of advantage in voter enthusiasm.

You claim Mother Jones' motivation for leaking the video was a politically calculated move by folks "who just want Obama elected". To wit, you defend your position about the polling with a site that ... well ... doesn't want to get Obama elected.

Neither can be called credibly unbiased right now.

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

What are you basing that on?

Turn any news outlet, even FNC, and you'll see anything but his positions. You and I know what they are because we seek them out but the overwhelming majority of voters out there do not. He's relying on the networks to get the message out for him and they simply won't / can't do it. FNC included.

There are also well connected pundits who are also fed up with his campaign style. Noonan is the tip of the iceberg.

A while back I said, and you agreed, Mitt needs to ignore the MSM and go directly to the people via town hall style meetings / TV events. Instead, he's bending over backwards trying to get a message out in a MSM that has no interest or desire to do so.

With the bad news that's out there, this should not be as close as it is anymore. The last few weeks have been disastrous for Obama and Mitt has once again proved he cannot pounce.

**NCRAVEN** · 09-21-2012, 03:16 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

You claim Mother Jones' motivation for leaking the video was a politically calculated move by folks "who just want Obama elected". To wit, you defend your position about the polling with a site that ... well ... doesn't want to get Obama elected.

Neither can be called credibly unbiased right now.

Sorry, I get your point and if I was posting an opinion piece, or posting something for the purpose of an opinion, I'd agree with you about the irony.

How ever I posted to show the advantages in the voter enthusiasm in the CBS poll instead of going to the poll and getting them myself.

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Turn any news outlet, even FNC, and you'll see anything but his positions. You and I know what they are because we seek them out but the overwhelming majority of voters out there do not. He's relying on the networks to get the message out for him and they simply won't / can't do it. FNC included.

There are also well connected pundits who are also fed up with his campaign style. Noonan is the tip of the iceberg.

A while back I said, and you agreed, Mitt needs to ignore the MSM and go directly to the people via town hall style meetings / TV events. Instead, he's bending over backwards trying to get a message out in a MSM that has no interest or desire to do so.

With the bad news that's out there, this should not be as close as it is anymore. The last few weeks have been disastrous for Obama and Mitt has once again proved he cannot pounce.

Well, the news is the news, I have my opinion/theories about why even FNC is doing this.

But these pundits can bitch and moan about the campaign, at the end of the day they just don't want bad shit written about them by the media so when something is perceived as bad by said media, they'll criticize it.

I agree their not going to the people so much as they should, and they have had a rough few weeks... according to... the media, but I gotta wonder if they don't believe their ahead or at least tied by not changing what they're doing.

**HoustonRaven** · 09-22-2012, 05:58 AM

To your point, NC ...

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-po...e-romney-vote/

**NCRAVEN** · 09-22-2012, 08:00 AM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

To your point, NC ...

http://www.dickmorris.com/why-the-po...e-romney-vote/

At this point I don't know who to believe, is Morris telling us this so we don't think it's over and stay tuned in, is Fox doing the same?

All I do know is Obama has lost a ton of support amongst nonpartisan people I know, almost all of them. I feel it's going to be a low turnout election because of a lot of dispirited people...

**Haloti92** · 09-22-2012, 11:09 AM

Off-topic, but a hilarious Onion piece on the media (and its coverage).

http://www.theonion.com/articles/med...n-obamas,2703/

**AirFlacco** · 09-22-2012, 09:55 PM

Speaking of Morris, O'Rawley was criticized for being rude to him when he had him on saying
the same thing in the link HR posted above.

O'Rawley said he liked Dick but he's long winded sometimes and he had
to shut him up. Screw him.

**StingerNLG** · 09-23-2012, 08:21 AM

Who's O'Rawley?

Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2

**AirFlacco** · 09-23-2012, 05:21 PM

O'Reilly on FOX.

**NCRAVEN** · 09-26-2012, 09:00 AM

RCP has moved Ohio to lean Obama, based of new polling that has him up 10.

If these polls are accurate, I'll eat my left shoe.

The method of polling:
http://www.nationalreview.com/campai...ctorates-2008#

The media has done it before:
http://spectator.org/archives/2012/0...r-beat-reagan/

**HoustonRaven** · 09-26-2012, 02:52 PM

While I do not share your disdain in the polls in general, that new CBS / NYT Poll does seem suspect.

I don't buy a 10 point lead in Ohio and that poll seems to have skewed the average up quite a bit.

**NCRAVEN** · 09-26-2012, 03:06 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

While I do not share your disdain in the polls in general, that new CBS / NYT Poll does seem suspect.

I don't buy a 10 point lead in Ohio and that poll seems to have skewed the average up quite a bit.

Same with a 14 point lead in Wisconsin.

I've been reading a lot on polling methodology lately, Rasmussen is the only that will hold any water with me from here on out. And I stress any, because they have a pretty small sample size.

**AirFlacco** · 09-26-2012, 03:27 PM

A guy was on TV this morning, I didn't get his name, but he said don't pay attention to them because it's
mostly the media pimping their favs and they're so skewed with unlikely voters. He said you really have to
average them all out.

He had Florida even which Mitt must have to win and Ohio was even too.

So don't believe all these big leads for OBY.

Bottom line, with the margin of error, it's a dead heat but someone will rise after the debates. That is
where Mitt must shine and when the rest of the undecideds will make up their minds.

**AirFlacco** · 10-01-2012, 05:55 AM

OBY only needs 5 more elect votes to win according to this
latest real clear map. Ohio is in the light blue but Florida is
still up for grabs.

Even Rasmussen has OBY up by +2 in the general polls as
every poll on this site has OBY up by at least +2, some
more.

Amazing, completely amazing.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html