RCP Electoral Map Thread

**NCRAVEN** · 10-09-2012, 12:35 PM

No change in status of the toss ups, but they polls are showing all the states are tightening or Romney opening a lead.

I've said it before, I wasn't buying the polls (doesn't mean I was right) so I wonder if they're getting accurate now for credibility or the debate made that much of a difference. Maybe both?

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

**HoustonRaven** · 10-09-2012, 12:40 PM

A second debate success is crucial for both candidates. This may very well sway the election one way of the other.

And not to beat a dad horse, but damn, I wish now more than ever Mitt pounced after the healthcare ruling. This could be a blow out of epic proportions had he handled that better. Instead we still have a nail biter.

**NCRAVEN** · 10-09-2012, 12:58 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

A second debate success is crucial for both candidates. This may very well sway the election one way of the other.

And not to beat a dad horse, but damn, I wish now more than ever Mitt pounced after the healthcare ruling. This could be a blow out of epic proportions had he handled that better. Instead we still have a nail biter.

I just hope going forward he and Ryan bring it up more in the debates, ESPECIALLY the IPAB.

**NCRAVEN** · 10-10-2012, 01:06 PM

Penn and Wisc have moved to toss up, though in Rasmussen he has BHO at 51% for both.

I would also say keep an eye on Oregon and Minnesota.

**HoustonRaven** · 10-10-2012, 01:47 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Penn and Wisc have moved to toss up, though in Rasmussen he has BHO at 51% for both.

I would also say keep an eye on Oregon and Minnesota.

You have a better chance of finding wild peacocks in your car tonight than Obama losing Oregon.

**NCRAVEN** · 10-10-2012, 02:23 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

You have a better chance of finding wild peacocks in your car tonight than Obama losing Oregon.

I smell a wager...

**HoustonRaven** · 10-10-2012, 02:36 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

I smell a wager...

It would be better if you simply drop whatever money you wish to wager on the ground and walk away.

**NCRAVEN** · 10-10-2012, 02:41 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

It would be better if you simply drop whatever money you wish to wager on the ground and walk away.

Haha. To be fair, I said keep an eye on. I did not say he would win it.

But, what little polling there has been has Obama only at 50%. He won it by 17 points, he also won states like Nev, Mich, Wis by 17 all are now toss-ups. So it's not inconceivable.

**HoustonRaven** · 10-10-2012, 02:52 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Haha. To be fair, I said keep an eye on. I did not say he would win it.

But, what little polling there has been has Obama only at 50%. He won it by 17 points, he also won states like Nev, Mich, Wis by 17 all are now toss-ups. So it's not inconceivable.

Yes, it's very inconceivable. Oregon may as well be called North San Francisco. And that's why there is little polling there. There is simply no point in it.

So yes, please bet me on this one!

**NCRAVEN** · 10-10-2012, 02:55 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Yes, it's very inconceivable. Oregon may as well be called North San Francisco. And that's why there is little polling there. There is simply no point in it.

So yes, please bet me on this one!

I'll bet you $25 to the winners favorite charity that Obama get's NO More than 53% of the vote. If you wait till after the next debate I'll reconsider saying a win.

**HoustonRaven** · 10-10-2012, 03:00 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

I'll bet you $25 to the winners favorite charity that Obama get's NO More than 53% of the vote. If you wait till after the next debate I'll reconsider saying a win.

No way.

And that's not an accurate indicator anyway. The state only has 39% registered Dems and 34% registered GOP. He could run away with it in a plurality of 45% with Mitt only getting 35%.

**NCRAVEN** · 10-10-2012, 03:03 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

No way.

And that's not an accurate indicator anyway. The state only has 39% registered Dems and 34% registered GOP. He could run away with it in a plurality of 45% with Mitt only getting 35%.

I'm not following. Are you talking about a 3rd party dividing the total vote?

**HoustonRaven** · 10-10-2012, 03:05 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

I'm not following. Are you talking about a 3rd party dividing the total vote?

Yes. The state is indy heavy.

**NCRAVEN** · 10-10-2012, 03:08 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Yes. The state is indy heavy.

Well only 3% voted for some other candidate last time around.

We may just have to say an I told you so on this one it's close or not.

I do want to give you a chance to break even, since we still have the Indiana Senate race wager.

**HoustonRaven** · 10-10-2012, 03:24 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Well only 3% voted for some other candidate last time around.

We may just have to say an I told you so on this one it's close or not.

I do want to give you a chance to break even, since we still have the Indiana Senate race wager.

Uh oh. Remind me on that one again because I don recall that one.

**NCRAVEN** · 10-10-2012, 03:28 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Uh oh. Remind me on that one again because I don recall that one.

It was just $25 that Murdoch would win the seat there.

**NCRAVEN** · 10-10-2012, 04:17 PM

New Hampshire has also moved back to toss up.

**StingerNLG** · 10-10-2012, 04:40 PM

I'm not sure what to make of this one. You guys know that the folks at Suffolk polling have pulled out of Virginia, Florida, and one other state because they are sure Romney is going to win those states and I are going to go poll elsewhere.

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**AirFlacco** · 10-10-2012, 04:46 PM

Rasmussen now had Mitt ahead in the 11 swing states, so does Gallup.

Mitt is breaking this thing wide open.

See polls have them in suicide watch.

It doesn't matter what OBY does in the next election especially if Mitt
gives a repeat performance.

Mitt now has 146 elect votes, up from 191 in a few days.

Including FLA, OHIO, PENN, VA , NC, MICH, WISCONSIN.

OBY won all those states in last election.