RCP Electoral Map Thread

[NCRAVEN]

I'm not sure what to make of this one. You guys know that the folks at Suffolk polling have pulled out of Virginia, Florida, and one other state because they are sure Romney is going to win those states and I are going to go poll elsewhere.

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A new Tampa Bay Times poll has Romney over 51%. I've been busy lately so I haven't looked to see what model they are using to project turn out, but either way this is not good for Obama and his running mate....

[AirFlacco]

REAL CLEAR'S MAP SHIFTS. OBY DROPS TO 201 DOWN FROM 265 ELECT VOTES WITH 156 TOSS UPS BUT IT DOESN'T SHOW ROMNEY UP BY +7 IN FLA AND VA AND UP BY +2
AMONGST LATINOS
BUT ON THE BRIGHT SIDE THE PORN INDUSTRY SUPPORTS OBY.

wire.xbiz.com/view.php?id=155108


http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/1...among-latinos/


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

[StingerNLG]

Anyone look at the map today? For the first time since the general election cycle began, Romney now has the lead in electoral votes.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

[NCRAVEN]

And New Jersey has moved to "lean Obama" fro "likely". Maybe just MAYBE these states are not as partisan as we though ( I did say maybe).

[StingerNLG]

well, realistically New Jersey is not in play. nor do I honestly think Pennsylvania and Michigan are either. But I do feel like Wisconsin is.

if Mitt Romney pulls off Ohio it's not gonna matter anyway.

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[NCRAVEN]

well, realistically New Jersey is not in play. nor do I honestly think Pennsylvania and Michigan are either. But I do feel like Wisconsin is.

if Mitt Romney pulls off Ohio it's not gonna matter anyway.

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I agree, I just think it shows the trend and not a bump that more people are moving away from Obama.

There are a number of ways Romney can get to 270 especially considering that most likely he is going to win, FL, NC, VA giving him 248.

I do feel Penn is not likely, BUT, I would not be shocked if went for Mitt. Same with Michigan, but I would be surprised (not shocked) if it went for Mitt.

I think New Hampshire is likely or "leaning" to Mitt, same with Colorado. That would give him 261. Needing only WI or Iowa and Nevada (which I don't feel as good about, and I don't know why).

[4G63]

I do feel Penn is not likely, BUT, I would not be shocked if went for Mitt.

Whats that you say?

A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.

Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.

It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-s...3#.UIB_P1EkV2A




Wheres Galen for the spin? I could really use his "insight" right now.

[StingerNLG]

Whats that you say?



http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-s...3#.UIB_P1EkV2A




Wheres Galen for the spin? I could really use his "insight" right now.

I do miss Galen for this. :-)

That said, that poll was tweeted today then the tweet was deleted. I'm not yet convinced it's a real poll.

Edit: its has been retweeted with a link. An outlier?

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[AirFlacco]

I'll do a spin here for Galen. That Examiner link has PA as a toss up state or "up for grabs." OBY is
still ahead in Ohio. PA hasn't voted GOP since 1988 and W Bush made more visits and spent more there than
ever to win it and still lost it even though his PoP won it.


Now back to our spin. As far as the "up for grabs," the link's 4 pt lead for Mitt is 1 pt beyond the margin of error which
means it's a legitimate lead for Mitt. That puts is slightly beyond a toss up state. Nevada, Iowa and Colorado are all
with the maargin of error of 3 points which means it's tied there.

Mitt's leading in Fla too and is even wooing the hispanic vote. Getting Ohio or PA
with FlA makes it real close. Getting all 3 states seals it before Californians even vote.

This from hotair.com which doesn't mention PENN.

_______________________________________
Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.
__________________________________________

If this PA lead builds and Mitt gets its 21 votes he doesn't need Ohio's 20 pts.


Mitt's prob in Ohio is his opposition to the auto bailout but he may not even need it if his lead continues to build in PA.

Either way it's looking grim for Team O.


This could now end in a tie which Rasmussen called about 2 months ago with
the House deciding.

[StingerNLG]

If this PA lead builds and Mitt gets its 21 votes he doesn't need Ohio's 20 pts.
.

Pennsylvania has 20 votes and Ohio has 18.

[AirFlacco]

Not according to this, which is what I used.

Either way, if Mitt wins PA he can win the elect vote w/o OH. If he gets both and he just might after OBY
blowing and 11 pt lead in Ohio, it's over before people even vote in Calif. That has happened before. The election
was decided as Californians were driving to vote. I'd be pissed too just like living here and voting.

My vote doesn't count because the DEM almost always gets MDs elect votes, so I'm just wasting time.

http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/c...s/electorl.htm

[HoustonRaven]

well, realistically New Jersey is not in play. nor do I honestly think Pennsylvania and Michigan are either. But I do feel like Wisconsin is.

if Mitt Romney pulls off Ohio it's not gonna matter anyway.

Agreed.

And what's strange with all of this are the states that are moving to red. Ohio, Florida, etc have stayed toss up but other states are trending Romney.

Very weird election this year.

[NCRAVEN]

Agreed.

And what's strange with all of this are the states that are moving to red. Ohio, Florida, etc have stayed toss up but other states are trending Romney.

Very weird election this year.

I really don't get this. I mean at the end of the day what can be sooo different in people just because of what state they live in?

If the entire nation is moving to Romney why are just a few states different? Either they are moving and the polls are not right, or it's unexplainable (IMO)...

[NCRAVEN]

Okay so... somebody help me out.

PPP (D) is changing their sampling, can anyone think of why they changed it so much?

Iowa 10/17 - 10/19
Democrat ........................................................ 34%
Republican...................................................... 38%
Independent/Other.......................................... 27%

9/24 - 9/26
Democrat ........................................................ 37%
Republican...................................................... 33%
Independent/Other.......................................... 30%

New Hampshire 10/17 - 10/19
Democrat ........................................................ 34%
Republican...................................................... 38%
Independent/Other.......................................... 27%

8/9 - 8/12
Democrat ........................................................ 32%
Republican...................................................... 32%
Independent/Other.......................................... 36%

[AirFlacco]

Yea, I can splain it.

I also posted on the other thread where PPP had Mitt up in the general election by +4 I think.

They're unusually being honest and smell OBYs shit and see that the
country is finally waking up and smelling it. People are fed up with his lies
about Romney and Libya.

All these polls are changing because of the debates and Libya and as a result many
undecideds made up their minds for Mitt just like Dick Morris said they would. So
have the indies and most of OBYs support groups.

We used to laugh at PPPs polls. They had OBY in front by over 14 pts
before the debates.

They can't cover for him anymore.

[NCRAVEN]

Yea, I can splain it.

I also posted on the other thread where PPP had Mitt up in the general election by +4 I think.

They're unusually being honest and smell OBYs shit and see that the
country is finally waking up and smelling it. People are fed up with his lies

All these polls are changing because of the debates and Libya. The
country now see OBY is lying and his own polls have given up on him.

We used to laugh at PPPs polls. They had OBY in front by over 14 pts
before the debates.

They can't cover for him anymore.

Thing is though, I believe they are oversampling Republicans now...

[AirFlacco]

Maybe but it's jiving with what we're seeing with the legit polls. The real clear map as posted above shows Oscar dropping
64 points on the map and Mitt is in the lead there.

See this.

____________________________________________________________________
RCP’s average already had New Hampshire within a point so the new PPP number there isn’t news. The Iowa number is. This is the first poll in a month showing Romney ahead in the state, notwithstanding his blockbuster debate two weeks ago. NBC’s poll last night, in fact, had O up by eight points in Iowa, a ridiculous figure given that Obama’s worried enough to have campaigned there just two days ago but consistent with the CW that it’s his state to lose.
__________________________________________________________________



http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/1...hire-and-iowa/

[AirFlacco]

Rasmussen says get ready for small Romney bump from the second debate. He originally had them tied after an OBY 2 pt bump but says the current surveying is showing a post debate bump for Mitt, albeit a small one.

He also said OBYs foreign policy is eroding with the Libya deal
and the next debate on foreign policy.

Grim times for Team O.




http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/1...second-debate/

[BMann]

Pardon my newbie ignorance, but what does "OBY" stand for? Obviously it means "Obama" but what exactly does it mean? I googled it and didn't find an answer.

[NCRAVEN]

Pardon my newbie ignorance, but what does "OBY" stand for? Obviously it means "Obama" but what exactly does it mean? I googled it and didn't find an answer.

It's just his name for Obama, it's an Airflacco original.