RCP Electoral Map Thread

**jonboy79** · 10-23-2012, 02:32 PM

If you ever read "Obummer" that's another one of Traps name for Voldemort...

**HoustonRaven** · 10-26-2012, 07:04 AM

North Carolina goes from "Leans Romney" to "Toss Up".

**NCRAVEN** · 10-26-2012, 07:17 AM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

North Carolina goes from "Leans Romney" to "Toss Up".

Because of a PPP poll. I swear the only exist to affect the averages on RCP.

**AirFlacco** · 10-26-2012, 11:09 AM

Fla and Va as well as Colorado for Mitt where he's leading and
Neveda and Iowa where it's tied. Those 3 states will be
critical in the electoral college vote. OBY blew big leads in all
those states plus Penn where Mitt has a 5 pt lead.

OBY led in all those states a month ago.

Chris Mathews played the race card on TV saying there's a lot
of bigotry and hatred in the south because they don't want a
black man to lead them.

Bull shit. It was the white votes and white money that got him
elected to begin with. That and the crash.

He's even lost some of the black votes because they
are the leading group with unemployment.

He just lost the women vote.

He lost the youth vote.

He lost the Catholic vote.

He lost the Jewish vote.

So, he's calling those folks bigots too?

SCrew him.

**AirFlacco** · 10-27-2012, 12:32 AM

Romney up by +5 in FLA according to new poll. With Penn in play, if
Mitt gets Ohio, it's over early.

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/2...ney-up-5-5146/

**HoustonRaven** · 10-29-2012, 10:19 AM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Because of a PPP poll. I swear the only exist to affect the averages on RCP.

Perhaps.

But Romney is still shakey on the electoral math. He may not need Ohio, but he needs to pick up a few more states if Ohio goes Blue.

By the way (and no shock to you or I), Obama proposed almost a trillion in cuts to FEMA just last month. Of course, not a peep about it on the MSM.

Flood Hazard Mapping and Risk Analysis Program - $8 million
State and Local Emergency Programs (non-defense) - $183 million
State and Local Emergency Programs (defense) - $5 million
United States Fire Administration and Training - $4 million
Salaries and Expenses (non-defense) - $75 million
Salaries and Expenses (defense) - $7 million
Disaster Relief - $580 million

Pages 94-96 of this: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/defa.../stareport.pdf

**StingerNLG** · 10-29-2012, 06:01 PM

I think Mitt is taking Ohio. Rasmussen has him up 2 now, and other more heavily skewed Dem polls have them tied or within a point . There is no way Ohio turnout is what it was in 2008. Republicans are way to energized there.

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**NCRAVEN** · 10-30-2012, 09:11 AM

Originally Posted by StingerNLG

I think Mitt is taking Ohio. Rasmussen has him up 2 now, and other more heavily skewed Dem polls have them tied or within a point . There is no way Ohio turnout is what it was in 2008. Republicans are way to energized there.

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That would be nice.

This whole thing has been a roller coaster ride. You watch the Romney rallies and see the crowds and they seem similar to Obama in 08. But the polls are still showing it neck and neck but Obama under 48 in most polls.

I guess it's all about turnout...

**AirFlacco** · 10-31-2012, 11:15 AM

Don't forget NC how we've been saying most of these polls are skewed. Like you posted, PPP exists just to
average out Real Clear's polls. You were right.

Just focus on the Gallup and Romney polls and those
huges crowds. They got OBY elected the last time and
will win it for Mitt now.

Gallup gave Mitt all the bounce points from the debates - up to 7 at one point. No one has lost
the election with 6 points from Gallup that late in the
election.

And Rasmussen, the most accurate still had Mitt up
by +5 last I checked.

**HoustonRaven** · 10-31-2012, 12:59 PM

Obama is trending up now, in Ohio and in the Rasmussen poll.

**NCRAVEN** · 10-31-2012, 02:01 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Obama is trending up now, in Ohio and in the Rasmussen poll.

If you take out the BS clearly bias polls that have equal or higher Dem turnout than 08, it's an almost even race well with in the margin of error.

The Rasmussen polls has been the same for about 3 days and before the 49-47 it was 50-47 and before that was 50-46 it's a slow trend if a trend at all.

I am not predicting Romney will win Ohio or any other state, just that the polls are very strange with their sample what they're reporting.

**NCRAVEN** · 10-31-2012, 02:15 PM

To illustrate my point.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily...s-quo-20121031

In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).

Other recent polls, such as the Pew Research Center survey released on Monday showing a tied race, have found a narrower, or nonexistent, Democratic identification advantage for 2012. Romney’s prospects, obviously, will increase the more the partisan gap declines. The biggest message from the survey is that even small changes in the electorate’s composition next week could have huge ramifications in a campaign that is dividing the nation so closely.

Doesn't mean this won't be the turnout, but it's unlikely given what we've been through the last 4 years.

**StingerNLG** · 10-31-2012, 07:53 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Obama is trending up now, in Ohio and in the Rasmussen poll.

Not seeing it in Rasmussen. He has been stuck at 47% for a while.

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**AirFlacco** · 10-31-2012, 08:50 PM

Rasmussen had Mitt up by +5 before the storm, Gallup by +6.

Ras now has Mitt up by +2 on real clear.

Hannity just asked him for a prediction and he said he just doesn't
know and anyone who says he does is lying. It's that close.

Ras was the closest in each election since Gore v Bush and said
it would be close enough for a recall.

**AirFlacco** · 10-31-2012, 09:28 PM

The Chair of the RNC is on right now and said the early voting is
favoring Romney. They are over-performing compared to 4 years
ago while the DEMs are under-performing.

If you go county by county the GOP is over-performing.

The early voting was supposed to be in OBYs favor.

He said they know results of every ballot being turned out.

They're getting the independents.

So don't count on the polls.

**AirFlacco** · 11-01-2012, 08:15 AM

Today, Rasmussen has em tied in Wisconsin and Mitt up by +3 in
Colorado - two winnable states with 5 days left according to real clear.

A local Va poll, Roanoke College, has Mitt taking that state by
+5 according to real clear, so he at least has Colorado and
Virginia in the bag with Wisc and Ohio tied.

**Haloti92** · 11-01-2012, 04:43 PM

I don't want to be a wet blanket, but I am starting to think Romney is going to fall a bit short (in Ohio really, and without Ohio the overall odds plummet).

Hearing that Romney/Ryan are going to campaign in Pennsylvania this weekend (versus Ohio or any other, close swing state really) makes me think they are extremely concerned about Ohio and are wildly firing away at some potential longshot paths to victory.

I hope I am wrong, but I don't see any possible rationale for campaigning in Pennsylvania at the expense of the other battleground states other than desperation.

Again, I am praying I am wrong.

**HoustonRaven** · 11-01-2012, 05:16 PM

Originally Posted by Haloti92

I don't want to be a wet blanket, but I am starting to think Romney is going to fall a bit short (in Ohio really, and without Ohio the overall odds plummet).

Hearing that Romney/Ryan are going to campaign in Pennsylvania this weekend (versus Ohio or any other, close swing state really) makes me think they are extremely concerned about Ohio and are wildly firing away at some potential longshot paths to victory.

I hope I am wrong, but I don't see any possible rationale for campaigning in Pennsylvania at the expense of the other battleground states other than desperation.

Again, I am praying I am wrong.

I'm agree and am willing to bet his internals are telling him Ohio is going Obama, thus he needs to steal another state.

His stance on the auto bail out really hurt his momentum here.

He can still win if he manages to steal away PA and holds on to FL.

**Haloti92** · 11-01-2012, 05:51 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

I'm agree and am willing to bet his internals are telling him Ohio is going Obama, thus he needs to steal another state.

His stance on the auto bail out really hurt his momentum here.

He can still win if he manages to steal away PA and holds on to FL.

True, but I think Pennsylvania is a much longer shot at replacing Ohio (18) than Wisconsin (10) plus Colorado (9). I think their time could be better spent in those states, unless maybe they have written off Wisconsin as well for some reason (which I doubt).

It just seems weird to me at this stage. I just don't think they have a chance to steal Pennsylvania with a single weekend of campaigning. They may have had some shot if they had targeted it earlier, but at this hour it seems like a futile effort, imo.

Plus I have a feeling tomorrow's jobs report is going to be another one with a drastic and illusory drop in the unemployment rate. Hopefully it will be enough of a drop that a signficant number of people dismiss it as "rigged," lol.

**StingerNLG** · 11-01-2012, 07:29 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

I'm agree and am willing to bet his internals are telling him Ohio is going Obama, thus he needs to steal another state.

His stance on the auto bail out really hurt his momentum here.

He can still win if he manages to steal away PA and holds on to FL.

Not according to things I am reading. Romney early voting may have wiped out Obama's entire ev from 2008, and I think people are overexaggerating the auto bailout thing, especially now that Fiat is talking about Jeep in China and Italy.

I think if Romney thought he was going to lose Ohio he would put more into Wi, Mi, and NV. And if Obama really thought he had Ohio, Jay-Z wouldn't be heading there.

Keep faith guys.

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