RCP Electoral Map Thread

[AirFlacco]

Romney is still ahead in Penn by +3 and has outspent OBY
by $11M so he's going back in for the kill. TV just said OBY
hasn't even been on the air in PA figuring it was automatic for him.

Dick just said that Mitt will win Penn and election will be determined before the Ohio votes are counted. Mitt leads in Col and Va and he will get New Hampshire and Fla where a GOP ad links Castro with Chavez and OBY. Chavez of course said he'd vote for OBY because he is his friend.

Thats not cool with Cuban Americans.

As I posted above, Mitt is already leading in the early voting
in Ohio but Mitt won't need it with Fla and Penn and then
the other states he's currently leading in.

Dick said OBY made a colossal mistake thinking he had a firewell
in PA since it hasn't voted GOP since 1988, but Mitt jumped
over that wall.

The Times poll surveyed 38% DEMs and only 29% GOPs so it's
bogus. It's not a valid sample.

Dick can't wait to go back on O'Rawley and say I told you so.

BTW, one station said race is close because of the billions
spent by the Super Pacs.

[StingerNLG]

Obama is spending the entire DAY in Ohio tomorrow. That is not a sign of a campaign that thinks they have wrapped up the state.

[Haloti92]

Obama is spending the entire DAY in Ohio tomorrow. That is not a sign of a campaign that thinks they have wrapped up the state.

Well, yeah, I think Ohio is definitely close. I can see both sides spending the rest of the time there. But what I can't see is deciding to go to PA vs. trying to win Ohio. I guess other than the fact they are right next to each other and there won't be much time wasted in the trip to and from. But still, the whole ball of wax is Ohio, imo.

And Air Flacco, where are you getting that Romney is up by 3 in PA? I see no such polls and generally keep my eyes open for new state polls.

[AirFlacco]

Here you go man. HR posted this link back on p. 4 of this thread
showing Mitt with a 49-45% lead. That's a 4-pt not 5 but Rasmussen
gave him a 5 pt lead in PA before the storm.

He gave him a 3 pt lead in Ohio after the storm.

OBYs going to OHio because Mitt is clobbering him in the early
voting and it is believed he is winning in the absentee ballots sent
in by the military over seas. They hate him.

Mitt was also in Ohio during the storm scoring more points by
physically collecting canned goods and food items for the hurricane
victims while OBY was in NY and NJ. That was good for his cause
but he's losing Ohio at the moment and PA.

Dick Morris also said last night on TV Mitt had jumped over
OBYs firewell in PA and FLA and PA would give Mitt the election
before the Ohio votes are even counted. That's because the
absentee ballots won't even be counted until 10 days after the
election according to Ohio law.



Here's that Examiner ink HR posted before the storm.

_______________________________
The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.
_________________________________



http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-s...3#.UJOXfmjlaPp







http://washingtonexaminer.com/poll-s...3#.UJOXfmjlaPp

[AirFlacco]

BTW, I just saw on real clear where OBY is winning in Maryland by +19.

No kidding.

That's why I say our votes don't even count. MD
always goes to the DEM.

We can help Mitt win the popular vote but
not the electoral vote which is most important.

That Damn Jefferson. He duped Americans thinking they had a voice. They were un-educated and only the rich could read and write at the time and Jefferson didn't trust them to make such an important decision like choosing the President so he came up with the Electoral College.

The states decide it and even there it's the biggest states. The
DEM candidates get the biggest states with the most votes like
Calif, NY, Ill, PA and so forth. The GOP will get the western
and southern states with smaller populations. Just look at the last few maps.

BTW, after the Civil War the south always voted DEM until the
50s when IKE ran and got them but when LBJ pushed the Civl
Rights Bill thru they said he just gave the South to the GOP and
he did. Even McCain got most of the south but not FLA, NC or VA.
Mitt is leading in NC and VA and FLA is a dead heat but look at
all the southern counties McCain got while losing. Look at all those
western counties he got. He got most of the counties in the US but
lost to the bigger states that really mattered.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv...scounties.html


This race is close because Mitt is doing well in VA, NC, and its
tight in FLA. Gore lost the WH when W got FLA's electoral votes.



The only way the GOP wins the White HOuse is when conservative
DEMs vote for them like they did with Nixon, Reagan, H and W Bush.

GOP candidates have done well in the south because they are
basically conservative. You have the Blue Dogs in congress from
the south keeping the libbies in check although they voted for
OBUMMER CARE but they were the last ones to vote for it holding
out for a while. They kept OBY from passing it in his first year
which he should have with just a few GOPs in congress.

Many of us think they should amend the constitution so there is
just one vote - the popular vote and to hell with the Elect
College but it will never happen.

Then all our votes will truly count. The country is literate now.
99% of Americans over 15 can read and write. BTW, in Russia
it's 99.5% and 100% in Norway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._literacy_rate


Well, that's your history lesson for today-lol.


I GOT 56M VOTES. 50M WERE FOR SARAH PALIN. JOHN MC CAIN

[HoustonRaven]

Obama's trend up continues.

Tied up in the latest Rasmussen poll.

Not a great time for Mitt to lose steam.

[NCRAVEN]

Obama's trend up continues.

Tied up in the latest Rasmussen poll.

Not a great time for Mitt to lose steam.

Agreed, this has been a crazy race.

If Obama wins or loses, my main concern is what is going to happen wiht the coming fiscal cliff. If he wins he's likely not to budge on the "tax cuts for the rich" and if he loses I see it the same way. We're f'ed regardless the way I see it.

[StingerNLG]

Obama's trend up continues.

Tied up in the latest Rasmussen poll.

Not a great time for Mitt to lose steam.

This concerns me a little, but that is a "Sandy" bump I think. I don't think Mitt is losing steam.

Plus keep a couple things in mind.

1) The media all of a sudden can't keep the lid on Benghazi anymore. Jake Tapper started something here.

2) Images of New York and New Jersey may start making Obama's photo op look very bad over the weekend.

3) Early voting in Ohio for Obama is down, and reports are 15% in Cleveland and Cincinatti alone: http://www.nationalreview.com/campai...nd-cincinnati#

4) Crowds for Obama are now in the 2,000 - 4,000 range in Ohio. Mitt Romney is slated to have 50,000 tonight, and has somewhere in the 15,000 range in his Wisconsin rally today.

5) Even tied, Obama has yet to hit 50% in Rasmussen or Gallup.

Don't give up just yet.

[NCRAVEN]

Did Tapper come out with something new?

[AirFlacco]

Don't forget PENN. Haloti asked about Penn yesterday. Well here is Dick Morris again
explaining why Mitt will still win on Tues and this is a lunch time update today.

OBY was so focused on the swing states he forgot the semi-swing states and completely
ignored PA thinking he had a firewall there since it hasn't voted GOP since 1988. I mentioned
this last night.

As Ive been saying Mitt is leading in the early voting and out-performing OBY from 08.

I'm still going for the land slide on Tues.

http://www.dickmorris.com/

[Haloti92]

This is for Air Flacco to keep him positive :

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ama-defectors/

It is hard to imagine how Obama can possibly win with these statistics. Essentially they say that around 9 million people who voted for Obama in 2008 (of Obama's 69 million) are planning on voting for Romney on Tuesday. This figure ignores the 3% that claim to be undecided (some presumably would vote Romney and some stick with Obama).

That would put Obama down to around 60 million votes and, if added to McCain's 2008 total of 59 million, would put Mitt at like 68 million votes.

Obviously there is some percentage, even if small, of people who would say they are going to vote for Obama now but voted for McCain in 2008. And there are the 18-21 year old voters who couldn't vote in 2008, who will break for Obama by a decent, though not nearly unanimous, percentage. And there are people who died since last election (presumably slightly more who voted for McCain), etc. And the overall turnout may end up being larger than 2008. In other words, the electorate is not exactly the same. But still, this is a massive chunk of defectors.

Then again, the polls *should be* including this data, so maybe Obama has made up the difference and the polls are accurate.

[Paintballguy]

I think it will be a landslide Romney win also.


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[darb72]

BTW, after the Civil War the south always voted DEM until the
50s when IKE ran and got them but when LBJ pushed the Civl
Rights Bill thru they said he just gave the South to the GOP and
he did. Even McCain got most of the south but not FLA, NC or VA.
Mitt is leading in NC and VA and FLA is a dead heat but look at
all the southern counties McCain got while losing. Look at all those
western counties he got. He got most of the counties in the US but
lost to the bigger states that really mattered.

Couple of things.

One, there's never been a civil war in America.
Two, the south voted DEM until after Wallace.

[HoustonRaven]

This is for Air Flacco to keep him positive :

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ama-defectors/

It is hard to imagine how Obama can possibly win with these statistics. Essentially they say that around 9 million people who voted for Obama in 2008 (of Obama's 69 million) are planning on voting for Romney on Tuesday. This figure ignores the 3% that claim to be undecided (some presumably would vote Romney and some stick with Obama).

That would put Obama down to around 60 million votes and, if added to McCain's 2008 total of 59 million, would put Mitt at like 68 million votes.

Obviously there is some percentage, even if small, of people who would say they are going to vote for Obama now but voted for McCain in 2008. And there are the 18-21 year old voters who couldn't vote in 2008, who will break for Obama by a decent, though not nearly unanimous, percentage. And there are people who died since last election (presumably slightly more who voted for McCain), etc. And the overall turnout may end up being larger than 2008. In other words, the electorate is not exactly the same. But still, this is a massive chunk of defectors.

Then again, the polls *should be* including this data, so maybe Obama has made up the difference and the polls are accurate.

And if we elected a President via popular vote, that would have more weight.

When you drill down to the state polls, it's not as rosy for Mitt.

[AirFlacco]

Couple of things.

One, there's never been a civil war in America.
Two, the south voted DEM until after Wallace.

OK DARB,

I get the sarcasm on point #1.

On point #2 - IKE got some of the south in 52 when it started to swing GOP.

See electoral map. He got FLA's big votes and Texas, VA and
MD.

I knew I should have said some of the big southern states.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...election,_1952


And Truman carried the south in 1948 except for a few states
Strom the racist Thurmond got. Isn't that Sweet Home Alabama
in the map that he got just like there was no Civil War in
America -lol.

Speaking of IKE, conservatives wanted MacArthur for Prez. Both parties courted him. GOPs entered his name in Wisconsin primary
along with Dewey but in a surprise move, the liberal Stassen beat
MacArthur out. But he was in Japan as Supreme Commander of
Allied Forces but said he wouldn't decline a GOP offer.

Both parties courted IKE, but GOP liberals got him because his brother Milton was a GOP. When asked if he as a DEM or GOP
he said I'm an American. Well said. That's why I'm an independent.

Talk about spending, IKE spent a ton of money but improved those
roads OBY loves to talk about. We got the Baltimore Beltway built
because of that money and Rt 95 going from Maine to FLA.

Guv McKeldon also got IKE's money for the capital beltway.

I remember when the beltway was first completed as a kid and
dad drove us all around it. Before that we had to go thru the
city from Belvedere thru MOnroe street to get to Wilkens Ave
and Halethrope where my grand parents lived. It was a long trip.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...election,_1948


Nixon also carried FLA and a few other southern states in the 1960 election. Point is, the south started voting GOP around the time
of IKE after voting DEM for so long but southern revisionists will
deny that like saying there was no Civil War.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...election,_1960

[StingerNLG]

Did Tapper come out with something new?

well, new for ABC. He's finally able to at least report on it.

and now even David Gregory at NBC is going to talk about it on Sunday morning.

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[StingerNLG]

And if we elected a President via popular vote, that would have more weight.

When you drill down to the state polls, it's not as rosy for Mitt.

what polls are you talking about? The ones with D+8 + D+12 samples? Rasmussen has Romney up 2 in Ohio and 2 in Colorado. both Gallup and Rasmussen say that the turnout is more likely going to be R+1 to D+2.

and there a polls showing Romney winning the early voting.

I think things look better for Romney then you're getting credit for.
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[HoustonRaven]

what polls are you talking about? The ones with D+8 + D+12 samples? Rasmussen has Romney up 2 in Ohio and 2 in Colorado. both Gallup and Rasmussen say that the turnout is more likely going to be R+1 to D+2.

and there a polls showing Romney winning the early voting.

I think things look better for Romney then you're getting credit for.
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RCP state averages.

I don't know how you can look at those and think they bode well for Mitt.

[AirFlacco]

That goes back to which polls you believe and which polls give
a bad sample like the Times poll that surveyed 38% DEM and only
29% GOPs and the DEMs were even registered or likely voters.

We've been saying all along that Rasmussen and Gallup are the
most reliable poll.

As Karl Rove said, Gallup had Mitt up by +6 and no candidate had
ever lost when they had him that high that late in the campaign.

[NCRAVEN]

RCP state averages.

I don't know how you can look at those and think they bode well for Mitt.

Few things. Sting is right, the polls are still using a model for turnout in some cases that projects a higher Dem turnout than 08.

Also, I went back and looked at the RCP polls for 08, lets just say, most were not correct.

All that said, I'm with you as far as the polls, they're not painting a pretty picture.