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  1. #109
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread



    Did Tapper come out with something new?
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  2. #110
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Don't forget PENN. Haloti asked about Penn yesterday. Well here is Dick Morris again
    explaining why Mitt will still win on Tues and this is a lunch time update today.

    OBY was so focused on the swing states he forgot the semi-swing states and completely
    ignored PA thinking he had a firewall there since it hasn't voted GOP since 1988. I mentioned
    this last night.

    As Ive been saying Mitt is leading in the early voting and out-performing OBY from 08.

    I'm still going for the land slide on Tues.

    http://www.dickmorris.com/
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




  3. #111

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    This is for Air Flacco to keep him positive :

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ama-defectors/

    It is hard to imagine how Obama can possibly win with these statistics. Essentially they say that around 9 million people who voted for Obama in 2008 (of Obama's 69 million) are planning on voting for Romney on Tuesday. This figure ignores the 3% that claim to be undecided (some presumably would vote Romney and some stick with Obama).

    That would put Obama down to around 60 million votes and, if added to McCain's 2008 total of 59 million, would put Mitt at like 68 million votes.

    Obviously there is some percentage, even if small, of people who would say they are going to vote for Obama now but voted for McCain in 2008. And there are the 18-21 year old voters who couldn't vote in 2008, who will break for Obama by a decent, though not nearly unanimous, percentage. And there are people who died since last election (presumably slightly more who voted for McCain), etc. And the overall turnout may end up being larger than 2008. In other words, the electorate is not exactly the same. But still, this is a massive chunk of defectors.

    Then again, the polls *should be* including this data, so maybe Obama has made up the difference and the polls are accurate.




  4. #112
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    I think it will be a landslide Romney win also.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk




  5. #113

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by AirFlacco View Post
    BTW, after the Civil War the south always voted DEM until the
    50s when IKE ran and got them but when LBJ pushed the Civl
    Rights Bill thru they said he just gave the South to the GOP and
    he did. Even McCain got most of the south but not FLA, NC or VA.
    Mitt is leading in NC and VA and FLA is a dead heat but look at
    all the southern counties McCain got while losing. Look at all those
    western counties he got. He got most of the counties in the US but
    lost to the bigger states that really mattered.
    Couple of things.

    One, there's never been a civil war in America.
    Two, the south voted DEM until after Wallace.
    This is a novel I was asked to proofread. The author is giving 10% of the profits to kidney research, which is a big deal in the Darb household. Fair warning; it's a fantasy novel, and the main characters are lesbians. It's three bucks on kindle from Amazon.http://www.amazon.com/WINDOWS-BROKEN...ken+fairy+tale




  6. #114
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    This is for Air Flacco to keep him positive :

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ama-defectors/

    It is hard to imagine how Obama can possibly win with these statistics. Essentially they say that around 9 million people who voted for Obama in 2008 (of Obama's 69 million) are planning on voting for Romney on Tuesday. This figure ignores the 3% that claim to be undecided (some presumably would vote Romney and some stick with Obama).

    That would put Obama down to around 60 million votes and, if added to McCain's 2008 total of 59 million, would put Mitt at like 68 million votes.

    Obviously there is some percentage, even if small, of people who would say they are going to vote for Obama now but voted for McCain in 2008. And there are the 18-21 year old voters who couldn't vote in 2008, who will break for Obama by a decent, though not nearly unanimous, percentage. And there are people who died since last election (presumably slightly more who voted for McCain), etc. And the overall turnout may end up being larger than 2008. In other words, the electorate is not exactly the same. But still, this is a massive chunk of defectors.

    Then again, the polls *should be* including this data, so maybe Obama has made up the difference and the polls are accurate.
    And if we elected a President via popular vote, that would have more weight.

    When you drill down to the state polls, it's not as rosy for Mitt.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  7. #115
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by darb72 View Post
    Couple of things.

    One, there's never been a civil war in America.
    Two, the south voted DEM until after Wallace.

    OK DARB,

    I get the sarcasm on point #1.

    On point #2 - IKE got some of the south in 52 when it started to swing GOP.

    See electoral map. He got FLA's big votes and Texas, VA and
    MD.

    I knew I should have said some of the big southern states.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...election,_1952


    And Truman carried the south in 1948 except for a few states
    Strom the racist Thurmond got. Isn't that Sweet Home Alabama
    in the map that he got just like there was no Civil War in
    America -lol.

    Speaking of IKE, conservatives wanted MacArthur for Prez. Both parties courted him. GOPs entered his name in Wisconsin primary
    along with Dewey but in a surprise move, the liberal Stassen beat
    MacArthur out. But he was in Japan as Supreme Commander of
    Allied Forces but said he wouldn't decline a GOP offer.

    Both parties courted IKE, but GOP liberals got him because his brother Milton was a GOP. When asked if he as a DEM or GOP
    he said I'm an American. Well said. That's why I'm an independent.

    Talk about spending, IKE spent a ton of money but improved those
    roads OBY loves to talk about. We got the Baltimore Beltway built
    because of that money and Rt 95 going from Maine to FLA.

    Guv McKeldon also got IKE's money for the capital beltway.

    I remember when the beltway was first completed as a kid and
    dad drove us all around it. Before that we had to go thru the
    city from Belvedere thru MOnroe street to get to Wilkens Ave
    and Halethrope where my grand parents lived. It was a long trip.



    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...election,_1948


    Nixon also carried FLA and a few other southern states in the 1960 election. Point is, the south started voting GOP around the time
    of IKE after voting DEM for so long but southern revisionists will
    deny that like saying there was no Civil War.


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_...election,_1960
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-02-2012 at 06:48 PM.
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




  8. #116
    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    Did Tapper come out with something new?
    well, new for ABC. He's finally able to at least report on it.

    and now even David Gregory at NBC is going to talk about it on Sunday morning.

    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2




  9. #117
    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    And if we elected a President via popular vote, that would have more weight.

    When you drill down to the state polls, it's not as rosy for Mitt.
    what polls are you talking about? The ones with D+8 + D+12 samples? Rasmussen has Romney up 2 in Ohio and 2 in Colorado. both Gallup and Rasmussen say that the turnout is more likely going to be R+1 to D+2.

    and there a polls showing Romney winning the early voting.

    I think things look better for Romney then you're getting credit for.
    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2




  10. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by StingerNLG View Post
    what polls are you talking about? The ones with D+8 + D+12 samples? Rasmussen has Romney up 2 in Ohio and 2 in Colorado. both Gallup and Rasmussen say that the turnout is more likely going to be R+1 to D+2.

    and there a polls showing Romney winning the early voting.

    I think things look better for Romney then you're getting credit for.
    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2
    RCP state averages.

    I don't know how you can look at those and think they bode well for Mitt.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  11. #119
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    That goes back to which polls you believe and which polls give
    a bad sample like the Times poll that surveyed 38% DEM and only
    29% GOPs and the DEMs were even registered or likely voters.

    We've been saying all along that Rasmussen and Gallup are the
    most reliable poll.

    As Karl Rove said, Gallup had Mitt up by +6 and no candidate had
    ever lost when they had him that high that late in the campaign.
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




  12. #120
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    RCP state averages.

    I don't know how you can look at those and think they bode well for Mitt.
    Few things. Sting is right, the polls are still using a model for turnout in some cases that projects a higher Dem turnout than 08.

    Also, I went back and looked at the RCP polls for 08, lets just say, most were not correct.

    All that said, I'm with you as far as the polls, they're not painting a pretty picture.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




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