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  1. #181
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread



    Quote Originally Posted by AirFlacco View Post
    Even today in Ohio and the freezing cold, thousands are waiting in long lines to
    hear Mitt. One observer said he never saw anything like it.
    I hope they do the same to waiting to vote.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  2. #182
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    They are. I've seen the long lines on TV in the early voting where Mitt has been getting
    the votes.

    =====================

    TV just said OBY is winning the early voting by a whisker in OHio but GOP believes they are
    pissing off the voters on election day by stressing the early voting and it will swing for Mitt.
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-05-2012 at 12:14 PM.
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  3. #183

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Another reason to be pessimistic .

    Romney cannot win with a razor-thin margin anywhere lest this occur (read the play-by-play of what happened in the Washington state race for governor, starting at paragraph 8):

    http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...john-fund?pg=1




  4. #184
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Man, I gotta stop reading you-lol. I don't put anyone on ignore. I like you man, but no mas.

    In a tie race you gotta like Romney because as they said on TV it's very hard to
    get republicans to poll. It's what I've been saying, most of these polls survey DEMs
    and unlikely voters.


    Barone just said OBY is worried about Wisc where he blew another big lead and he
    just stopped in. Barone is calling for Mitt to win FLA as did the congressman I posted above.

    And as posted above, Rasmussen gives Mitt a 1-pt lead in the final day before election
    and he's the most accurate.

    BTW, Barone was criticized in posts above but he just quoted himself in the column
    that he could be wrong.
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-05-2012 at 03:43 PM.
    UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU.




  5. #185

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    Silver slightly varying the polls weights doesn't address the issue of (or odds of) systematic failure or bias. Which is exactly the point.

    As for Intrade, no thanks. It is liking betting on a 2 to 1 moneyline favorite in the NFL, which can be done any week. And as I said, I don't think "mitt" is going to "eek" it out, I actually think he loses Ohio and hence the election, but we aren't really talking about what will happen, we are talking about people pretending that pseudoscience is science. When you appeal to the results of the pseudoscience as evidence of its scientific nature you are begging the question.
    Well said. Fair enough, we'll hopefully know how accurate the state polls were tomorrow but of course we could be in for an ugly recount. Remember the Al Franken election haha. Also what's up with Ohio cutting early voting to 2 pm today anyway? That would seem sort of like cutting the nose to spite the face if you're trying to maximize republican turnout right?




  6. #186
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Speaking of cutting voting in Ohio, the congressman in FLA said there's been some DEM shannigans
    there with the DEM supervisor changing the times of early voting and telling all the DEMs but not
    the GOPs.

    Looks like DEMs are trying hard to steal another election.
    UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU.




  7. #187
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    And speaking of state polls, don't forget Kerry's bogus early exit polls showing him winning
    by a land slide. That was to discourage GOPs from voting but again he only surveyed
    DEMs and mostly female DEMs and mostly Hispanic female DEMs in FLA.

    Of course Bush won.
    UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU.




  8. #188

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Agreed. But he could have a done the Reagan-esqe media blitz, bypassing the MSM. Mitt and his surrogates seem to be taking the McCain approach. You and I both agreed a while back he needed to not be so reliant on the MSM.
    If this was 2000 or 2004 sure, but IMO in the age of social media and smart phones people can and do get their news from many sources and not just fox, CNN, NBC, etc, especially if you have twitter. Benghazi is probably not sticking well because people are tired of war and the Middle East in general. What Romney should be doing is spending more time on his economic plan specifics. McCain did a far better job explaining his. Obama's whether we like it or not folks know it since he's been in office 4 years, the ball is in Romney's court to give a strong alternative. That method worked well in 2010 state races but a national election not so much. Of course I could be wrong and Romney wins but at least that can maybe explain the "tightness" of the race.




  9. #189
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Anecdotal, but interesting none the less.

    Madison Fail: Obama/Springsteen 18K; Kerry/Springsteen 75K
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  10. #190

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Here is what the media and the Dem-leaning polling is not taking into account:

    http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ty_affiliation

    If Rasmussen is as accurate as they have been the last couple elections, party affiliation going into tomorrow in his polling is R+5.8. For perspective, here is how close he was in '04 and '08. The first column was his polling, and the second column was the actual turnout. Keep in mind his polling isn't 618 likely voters, or 1,500 likely voters. His party ID poll is 15,000 (fifteen THOUSAND) likely voters.

    2004 D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2) D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38)
    2008 D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3) D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)

    Edit: Rasmussen also predicted a D+3 turnout in 2010. Turnout was actually even D/R, so he gave Democrats a 3 point turnout cushion. So in essence he has been accurate with turnout predictions for a while now.


    IF this holds and is true, then none of the toplines in these polls make a bit of difference, Mitt Romney is going to blow the doors off this election tomorrow.

    BTW The last CNN poll had Romney and Obama tied with a D+11 sample. And Romney winning Independents by something like 19 points. Plug that into Rasmussen's turnout prediction and Romney may beat Obama nationally by 5-7%. And if that happens, no way in hell he loses the electorial college. If this is an R+6 turnout, losing Ohio means he is picking up enough other big states to offset.

    And by the way, for all that BS about Mitt absolutely needing Ohio. That's the narrative. If you look at the RCP map, there are realistic scenerios that could end up with a Romney win.

    For example:

    There are many who think the Scott Walker recall election created a brand new Republican ground game in Wisconsin. Remember the Democrats and the unions poured MILLIONS into that recall. It wasn't just a little side-election. And Walker got more votes to stave recall than he got elected with. And he is hardly a "Scott Brown" type Republican, he's a die-hard Conservative. There is a real feeling between that and Paul Ryan that they can win that state.

    So if he won WI, retook CO, and won FL, NC, and VA, then he would only need something like New Hampshire or Iowa to win. That is with Obama winning Ohio. Everything right now points to Romney winning Florida, NC, and Virginia, and early voting has the GOP up +2% right now.

    So we'll see. Like I said, this is a turnout election. IF the electorate is actually R+6, then tomorrow will be a short night.
    Last edited by StingerNLG; 11-05-2012 at 02:48 PM.




  11. #191
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    Anecdotal, but interesting none the less.

    Madison Fail: Obama/Springsteen 18K; Kerry/Springsteen 75K
    This is for the pessimistic.


    Only 200 turned out to see STevie Wonder perform for the hamster in Cleveland, OH.
    He's finishing the campaign with a star studded cast from Hollywood that is bombing
    out. ILMAO

    DEMs are blaming it on poor advertising. Yea, sure.

    These are the numbers I'm looking at. Not the phony DEM Polls.


    http://www.theblaze.com/stories/wasn...stevie-wonder/


    LOL - Mitt just said in VA, another critical state that's even, "Im looking around to
    see if the Beatles are here to entertain you but I' don't see them. I guess everyone is
    just here for the campaign and you care about America.
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-05-2012 at 03:50 PM.
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  12. #192
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Drudge is now reporting that GALLUP joins Rasmussen as Mitt leading
    by +1.


    These are the most reliable polls but Im still calling for a land slide.


    www.drudgereport.com
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-05-2012 at 06:21 PM.
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