RCP Electoral Map Thread

**HoustonRaven** · 11-05-2012, 06:48 PM

Originally Posted by kojo

Yeah, but it's even worse for him in those states. He hasn't lead in ANY recent polls in either states and it's not even close. Best poll he got is a tie in one PA poll where everyone else has Obama up by 2-8 points. Best case scenario for Romney winning is he somehow wins FL, VA, OH, and Colorado. I think NC is obviously going Romney so those 4 states should do it but he has about the same odds of flipping a coin 4 times in a row and getting heads on all of them. His campaign has sooooooo much money which is why he's doing a hail mary and throwing a bunch of $ into PA and WI and hoping for the best.

I'm not as doom and gloom as you seem to be.

He has a great chance at winning FL and VA. Outside of those two, it's a toss up and toss ups tend to go to the incumbent.

Mitt's comments about the auto bail out cost him dearly in OH. I think that's why we are seeing the deluge of money into PA and WI to compensate for the math problem from losing OH.

And I don't buy that leaked story about Mitt's internals for one second. A random GOP pollster is not going to have access to a candidates internal polling, let alone leak them. Those polls are guarded better than the President himself.

**AirFlacco** · 11-05-2012, 07:35 PM

That exact amount spent in PA was $10M by GOP in the last week alone to $3M for DEMs.
I guess that's a closely guarded secret too.

_____________________________________________________
Internal campaign polling completed on Sunday night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin. Most startlingly, the figures show Romney and Obama deadlocked in Pennsylvania.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz2BP1PVVjQ
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____________________________________

Clinton made 4 stops there today and some chick on FOX said every DEM leader she talked to in the state is confused as to why he is there. They say PA is not in play. OBY obviously disagrees and if you watched him today he looked tired his voice dragged and he just wants to get it over with while Mitt was energetic and strong.

One thing HR is not mentioning. Brit Hume quoted that Gallup poll with a +1 pt lead,which is the grand daddy of all polls doing it the longest and asking the widest range of questions and polling likely voters.

Hume said that +1 pt lead is equivalent to a blow out for Mitt which is what Dick has
been preaching all summer.

**StingerNLG** · 11-05-2012, 07:46 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

I'm not as doom and gloom as you seem to be.

He has a great chance at winning FL and VA. Outside of those two, it's a toss up and toss ups tend to go to the incumbent.

Mitt's comments about the auto bail out cost him dearly in OH. I think that's why we are seeing the deluge of money into PA and WI to compensate for the math problem from losing OH.

And I don't buy that leaked story about Mitt's internals for one second. A random GOP pollster is not going to have access to a candidates internal polling, let alone leak them. Those polls are guarded better than the President himself.

So basically all the actual numbers in Ohio don't get outweighed to you by polls with samples that assume Obama will have a higher turnout than 2008? You also keep bringing up the auto-bailout being a negative on Mitt. What about the coal comments being a negative for Obama? Coal miners are highly angry over Obama's words and actions in that state and PA.

BTW, he's going into PA because he has people telling him he can win PA. Not as a hail mary. Barack Obama went to Indiana right before the 2008 election, and won that state. WON INDIANA. In fact, Jay Cost wrote a really good article about why Mitt went to PA. It's not a head-fake.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/...ke_660255.html

I'm very surprised you've fallen for the polls. Hell, CNN/ORG put out a national poll with the two guys tied with a D+11 sample and Mitt winning independents by 19! Seriously you are putting stock in the polling??

**StingerNLG** · 11-05-2012, 07:50 PM

An interesting tweet tonight BTW from Peggy Noonan (who endorsed Obama in 08)

"I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what’s coming, and it’s part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama looks so roiled"

Say what you want about Dick Morris and his crazy landslide theory, but Karl Rove knows more about presidential politics and such than all of us will ever forget. His map has Romney with 285 EV. I put stock in his opinion.

**StingerNLG** · 11-05-2012, 08:14 PM

Forgive the multiple tweets tonight. But it looks like I need to keep you guys from going "Forward" over the cliff.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...ay-josh-jordan

A good read. Someone else looking at more than just the poll toplines. Looking at the crowd sizes, ground game, etc:

**NCRAVEN** · 11-05-2012, 08:38 PM

I am leaning more towards your end Sting.

I've not had much faith in the polls all year. There is a lot of anecdotal evidence out there, but just seeing what's going on I've got a good feeling.

And if Obama pulls it off, I have even more faith in a serious, serious right turn not to far in the future.

**HoustonRaven** · 11-05-2012, 08:40 PM

I get all that Sting. I really do.

But, as others have pointed out, it's all anecdotal. I am basing my opinion on the race on past elections. And while I freely admit the past does not always indicate what will happen in the future, I believe it to be the case this time. It's not one poll that's doing it for me, it's the polls as a collective. Not every poll is leaning left or inaccurate.

I just get the sense it's swaying toward Obama in the 11th hour. Does this mean Obama will win? Not necessarily, but history shows us it usually turns towards the incumbent.

**HoustonRaven** · 11-05-2012, 08:41 PM

For two guys who have no faith in the polls, you both are quick to point out polls that favor Mitt.

**AirFlacco** · 11-05-2012, 08:43 PM

"I GOT 99 PROBLEMS BUT MITT AIN'T ONE"

That's what Jay Z said for the hamster in OHio as the stars
show up.

Anyway, as for those closely guarded secrets, Ed Gilliespie who is
Mitt's campaign advisor just backed those internals up including PA. He expects a win there. Mitt is going to Pissburgh tomorrow and then Mistake by the Lake where he has a lot of momentum.

He said Being under 50% for the incumbent is really bad news for him.

He's running scared even if it just 2 points below. He's never been where he is tonight, one the road this late in the campaign.

Just think, our football rivals the Squeelers and Clowns will determine the next Prez. We might owe them some beer. UGH!!!

**NCRAVEN** · 11-05-2012, 08:45 PM

Little late for a head fake...

www.youtube.com/watch?v=qC1VxqkZ8EY

**AirFlacco** · 11-05-2012, 08:48 PM

Don't forget NY and NJ.

I don't know if those folks can even get to the polling booths but they are pissed off at OBY.
They just showed them cussing two out from Team O.

One women said we're dying out here with no homes or food. Where is FEMA? This is worse than Katrina. FEMA just dropped stuff off and didn't even distribute it. A box of matches is $10. Gas is $5
if you can get it. A bag of potatoes is $8.

OBY just showed up for a photo shoot and went back on the trail.
They are pissed and scared.

We're dying. A crowd was cussing those Obama people away.

The ones that do get to vote will vote vs him for sure.

**NCRAVEN** · 11-05-2012, 08:55 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

For two guys who have no faith in the polls, you both are quick to point out polls that favor Mitt.

If those are indeed Mitt's internals, there only telling me what I'm feeling, which when I add up all the anecdotal evidence tells me in addition to the polls being skewed that people don't like Obama's policies/liberalism.

Take for example the Wisconsin rally 4 years ago that Obama had that drew 80,000 people today drew 18,000. Most or maybe all of those people who didn't show could or may still vote for him, but it shows at the very lest a lot less are excited about him.

**NCRAVEN** · 11-05-2012, 08:56 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

I get all that Sting. I really do.

But, as others have pointed out, it's all anecdotal. I am basing my opinion on the race on past elections. And while I freely admit the past does not always indicate what will happen in the future, I believe it to be the case this time. It's not one poll that's doing it for me, it's the polls as a collective. Not every poll is leaning left or inaccurate.

I just get the sense it's swaying toward Obama in the 11th hour. Does this mean Obama will win? Not necessarily, but history shows us it usually turns towards the incumbent.

Do you have any specifically you're talking about?

**HoustonRaven** · 11-05-2012, 08:58 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Do you have any specifically you're talking about?

Scott Rasmussen.

**AirFlacco** · 11-05-2012, 08:59 PM

Dick is now saying what Brit Hume did with that Gallup poll's 1 pt lead for Mitt.

OBYs at 48% but that doesn't mean 48% are turning out. That really means that Mitt has a 4% more turnout and votes for him.

So in reality, Mitt has a 5 pt lead. The DEMs can't produce the votes. The the DEMs will blame the black minorities for not coming out.

Romney will be accused of suppressing the vote with OSCE observers coming in which they've been doing since 2002 after we signed a treaty with 54 other countries.

http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affa...tion-observers

**NCRAVEN** · 11-05-2012, 09:01 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Scott Rasmussen.

Doesn't he basically show what the article said Mitt's internals are?

**HoustonRaven** · 11-05-2012, 09:02 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Doesn't he basically show what the article said Mitt's internals are?

He is?

I'd like to see it if so.

**NCRAVEN** · 11-05-2012, 09:05 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

He is?

I'd like to see it if so.

Scroll over the state and will show his polling. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ege_scoreboard

Ahead in FL, NC, VA, NH, IA, CO.

Tied in OH, WI.

Behind in PA.

Almost spot on with what we're told Mitt's internals are, except PA.

**AirFlacco** · 11-05-2012, 09:12 PM

Newt says Mitt will get PA. Clinton is there
because OBY can't help himself. Clinton will
make things better but the war on coal
is killing OBY which is why Mitt will be in
Pissburgh tomorrow.

**HoustonRaven** · 11-05-2012, 09:59 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Scroll over the state and will show his polling. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ege_scoreboard

Ahead in FL, NC, VA, NH, IA, CO.

Tied in OH, WI.

Behind in PA.

Almost spot on with what we're told Mitt's internals are, except PA.

Not quite.

Mitt's alleged "internals" has him up in OH, not tied. Rasmussen has it as toss up.

They also claim to be up in NH. Rasmussen has that as toss up as well.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...=feeds-newsxml