RCP Electoral Map Thread

**StingerNLG** · 11-05-2012, 09:59 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

I get all that Sting. I really do.

But, as others have pointed out, it's all anecdotal. I am basing my opinion on the race on past elections. And while I freely admit the past does not always indicate what will happen in the future, I believe it to be the case this time. It's not one poll that's doing it for me, it's the polls as a collective. Not every poll is leaning left or inaccurate.

I just get the sense it's swaying toward Obama in the 11th hour. Does this mean Obama will win? Not necessarily, but history shows us it usually turns towards the incumbent.

Except the Ohio numbers are not anecdotal. They are real numbers. That is why I am not using poll numbers.

And history also suggests that undecideds break for the challenger.

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**StingerNLG** · 11-05-2012, 10:01 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Scott Rasmussen.

Rasmussen suggests Romney wins. And suggests an R+6 turnout.

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**AirFlacco** · 11-05-2012, 10:59 PM

And Dick said a +5 or more lead for Mitt.

And Jay Z couldn't fill the place up for OBY who spoke to a half
empty house. So it turns out that Mitt is a prob for him. ILAMO

TO RECAP.

Springstein struck out.
Stevie Wonder struck out.
Jay Z struck out.

That's like MITT striking out the Yankies. Three up and three down-lol.

Gillespie was right. All the enthusiasm and crowds are for Mitt.

http://www.breitbart.com/

**AirFlacco** · 11-05-2012, 11:25 PM

Someone in PA is worried. An activist group shredded all GOP
registrations. Sounds like ACORN at work. In 08 they entered
the roster of the Dallas Cowboys in 22 states and their offices
were raided by the FBI. See Philly pic of shredded registrations.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...-registrations

**AirFlacco** · 11-05-2012, 11:32 PM

Originally Posted by StingerNLG

Rasmussen suggests Romney wins. And suggests an R+6 turnout.

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Looks like Ras is jumping on Dick's land slide band wagon because that R+6 lead amounts to a landslide caus of 5.8% gop ID advantage. Dick said this tonight explaining that 1% lead Gallup gave Mitt is like a +5 or more lead.

Plus, Rasmussen's ID numbers are the same as Gallup's and Pew.

Hume said the same thing about that +1% lead.

See explanations.

http://www.breitbart.com/InstaBlog/2...ctorate-is-R-6

**Irish Raven** · 11-05-2012, 11:37 PM

The good people of Ohio didn't come out to see The Boss??

No more concerts dates for you

**HoustonRaven** · 11-06-2012, 04:23 AM

Originally Posted by StingerNLG

Rasmussen suggests Romney wins. And suggests an R+6 turnout.

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In what poll?

You can't look at a generic ballot poll or a national poll and say that's a win in an election that's determined by the states.

Everything I've see where Rasmussen drilled down to the state level shows Mitt within the margin of error at best. Hardly definitive.

**AirFlacco** · 11-06-2012, 07:28 AM

THIS ONE.

http://www.breitbart.com/InstaBlog/2...ctorate-is-R-6

**StingerNLG** · 11-06-2012, 08:11 AM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

In what poll?

You can't look at a generic ballot poll or a national poll and say that's a win in an election that's determined by the states.

Everything I've see where Rasmussen drilled down to the state level shows Mitt within the margin of error at best. Hardly definitive.

go back a page or 2 and read my post where map this all out. You are looking at toplines. I am not, Karl Rove is not, Michael Barone is not, Charles Krauthammer is not.

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**Haloti92** · 11-06-2012, 08:16 AM

Here we go again:

http://www.nationalreview.com/campai...polling-places

Obama caught asleep at the switch with his Pennsylvania (read: Philly) ground game, now taking desperate measures. It's "everyone vote twice" time at the moment in Philly.

**NCRAVEN** · 11-06-2012, 08:18 AM

Originally Posted by Haloti92

Here we go again:

http://www.nationalreview.com/campai...polling-places

Obama caught asleep at the switch with his Pennsylvania (read: Philly) ground game, now taking desperate measures. It's "everyone vote twice" time at the moment in Philly.

Wonder if anything will be done to stop this. Doubtful.

**StingerNLG** · 11-06-2012, 09:12 AM

Take this news with an EXTREME grain of salt. But there are reports coming out of Ohio that Romney is vastly overperforming Obama in early voting. Now these numbers aren't completely confirmed, but if it holds up, Romney wins tonight:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/0...-early-voting/

**NCRAVEN** · 11-06-2012, 09:54 AM

Originally Posted by StingerNLG

Take this news with an EXTREME grain of salt. But there are reports coming out of Ohio that Romney is vastly overperforming Obama in early voting. Now these numbers aren't completely confirmed, but if it holds up, Romney wins tonight:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/0...-early-voting/

I did hear that the counties that had heavy Dem early voting were coal counties. Again, take that with an EXTREME grain of salt as well.

**AirFlacco** · 11-06-2012, 09:59 AM

I posted that back on Thurs and Fri and GOP was over-perfoming by 75,000 and OBY was
under-performing by 181,000 compared to 08.

Look for Hamilton County. That is the key and you will here them talking all night about it.

**Haloti92** · 11-06-2012, 10:14 AM

More comedy from Philly:

http://twitter.com/Timodc/status/265...419969/photo/1

Full-blown "By Any Means Necessary" status for Democrats in Philly today.