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  1. #145


    what I said about Pennsylvania a couple of posts ago? now I'm starting to believe.

    http://triblive.com/mobile/m/2878015...dential-voters

    and Bill Clinton is going to be there on Monday for FOUR stops. you don't send arguably your biggest surrogate to a state you think you got locked up for four rallies the day before the election.
    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2





  2. #146

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    I have some new Ohio information to from a source watching the hard count of early voting:

    "OHIO: GOP has increased their early turnout by more than 100k from 2008. Dems down 150k. That is 250k net (Obama won in 2008 by 260k)."

    That's not a poll, that is the count from the state on party turnout. How many of those Democrats also voted Romney, and how many Republicans voted Obama aren't going to be here.

    Remember something else, most all polling in '04 had John Kerry winning the state. And even on election day the exit polls were saying Kerry was going to win it. Bush won by 3%. This is why I have no confidence in the poll numbers right now.




  3. #147

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread





  4. #148
    Join Date
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    Thought you had "no confidence" in poll numbers, Sting?
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  5. #149
    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Thought you had "no confidence" in poll numbers, Sting?
    I don't. I'm trying to make the point that these polls mean nothing right now.

    However, sending Bill Clinton to Pennsylvania all day? That means more than any poll out there. THAT tells me someone in the Obama camp sees Romney in a position they don't want him to be in.

    Sent from my Xoom using Tapatalk 2




  6. #150

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    I am starting to feel a little better, though I am still not confident. The Michigan poll was a bit of a surprise. A nice surprise. Like Pennsylvania, it may not come through, but I think it indicates late momentum.

    But about the 2004 Ohio polls, they actually did show Bush winning for the last week, by the margin he actually won (2.1%). That said, the only pollsters who polled that last week were some of the pros, not the news networks (who always seem a bit pro-Democrat). Note the CNN final poll. We are getting more CNN-like polls now, I am sure.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Pre.../oh_polls.html




  7. #151
    Join Date
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Romney spoke to 17,000 in Colorado yesterday as he keeps getting the crowds from OHio to Col.

    Bite Me Biden spoke before just less than 1,000 at a Colorado school and then slightly over 1,000 at another school yesterday in that critical state.

    The crowd numbers coincide with the early return numbers we're hearing.

    Meanhile, the Trib poll has them now tied in PA and just about all the polls on Drudge Report including Rasmussen has them tied but Mitt is getting the crowds and early voting returns.

    In reference to Dick Morris prediction of a land slide for Mitt, Ras said anyone who said he knows who is winning is lying. Well, Dick is just guessing like everone else.

    The crowd numbers and early returns are bearing him out at the moment.


    www.denverpost.com

    www.drudgereport.com
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-04-2012 at 12:14 PM.
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN!




  8. #152
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Someone should get rid of this jerk off. This is the most disgraceful
    thing said in the campaign. Rush would be crucified by every paper
    and TV station in the country for saying something like this.

    This is what they've given us - fear via the race card. They played it
    in 08 and this year. McCain was scared to death to link OBY with
    Jeremiah Wrong for fear of being called a racist.

    I remember during the 60s when they burned the cities down from
    Watts to Bmore. North Ave and Penn Ave were burned to the ground.

    Afterwards in school I asked the blacks how could you burn down your
    own neighborhoods? I was just trying to understand them.
    They said we're coming out to your neighborhood the next time.
    I said come on out.


    I always got along with them, even broke up a fight with 2 white
    guys beating on a black. I was one of the biggest guys in the school and
    wrestled in the unlimited weight class at 175 lbs (no body fat) in the 10th grade.
    I beat a senior by just falling on him and got promoted to the varsity.


    If OBY wins, I cant wait for the next campaign. At least there won't
    be this:


    http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sh...-and-will-come
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-04-2012 at 12:05 PM.
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN!




  9. #153
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by StingerNLG View Post
    I don't. I'm trying to make the point that these polls mean nothing right now.

    However, sending Bill Clinton to Pennsylvania all day? That means more than any poll out there. THAT tells me someone in the Obama camp sees Romney in a position they don't want him to be in.

    Sent from my Xoom using Tapatalk 2
    Hears what I take from this and why I have no idea what's really going on.

    IN every state listed as a "swing state" it's now even or within the margin of error. IF obama won it by 16, 13, or 10 it's now even. Now if he won it by 3, 2 4, or 6 it's still a toss up.

    That just doesn't make sense, how does someone lose 14 or 15 points in two or three states but only 2 or none (ohio) in others.

    The only thing I can think of is, close elections mean big business and no one really knows what's going on sense most polls are done by landlines and no one has a landline and those who do don't answer their phones.

    This election could be a toss up or a landslide in either direction....
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  10. #154

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    This is why it will be tough for Romney to win such a close race with such early voting rules that are in place:

    http://www.desmoinesregister.com/art...nclick_check=1




  11. #155

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Based on all the recent swing state polls (in particular Ohio), this election appears to be Obama's to lose at this point. When even Gallup and Rasmussen start changing their national/swingstate polls from outside margin of error Romney leads to ties, you know the momentum has clearly shifted Obama's way. The only thing romney supporters can hope for is that the reduced early voting days/hours that has taken place in Ohio and Florida leads to less democrats voting and way more republicans voting on election day to tip it Romney's way...for folks that are into complex number crunching, Sam Wang from the Princeton Election Consortium, who accurately got 2008 and 2010 results down has Obama at 98%. Nate Silver, also accurate in 2008 and 2010 has Obama at over 85%. Their sites go into great detail how they arrive at those numbers so go there, read up, and then hit them up if you got questions/concerns. Sam has mentioned that he will eat bugs and show the footage if he's wrong so take that for what it's worth haha




  12. #156

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kojo View Post
    Based on all the recent swing state polls (in particular Ohio), this election appears to be Obama's to lose at this point. When even Gallup and Rasmussen start changing their national/swingstate polls from outside margin of error Romney leads to ties, you know the momentum has clearly shifted Obama's way. The only thing romney supporters can hope for is that the reduced early voting days/hours that has taken place in Ohio and Florida leads to less democrats voting and way more republicans voting on election day to tip it Romney's way...for folks that are into complex number crunching, Sam Wang from the Princeton Election Consortium, who accurately got 2008 and 2010 results down has Obama at 98%. Nate Silver, also accurate in 2008 and 2010 has Obama at over 85%. Their sites go into great detail how they arrive at those numbers so go there, read up, and then hit them up if you got questions/concerns. Sam has mentioned that he will eat bugs and show the footage if he's wrong so take that for what it's worth haha
    Both of them just analyze poll results. The concerns people have cannot be addressed by them because the concerns are about the data they are analyzing (and its accuracy) not their actual analyses. They both start with the assumption that the polls are showing them the actual electorate.

    The fact is, with early voting expansion, cell phones, Caller ID, an extra partisan electorate, and more polling being done by more pollsters with more methodologies, it is not a given that these polls can be relied on to the extent they are being relied on.

    That said, the extra poll numbers combined with averaging them should even out the anomalous, bad apples, but it wouldn't catch a systematic failure/asumption that exists throughout the majority of the polls. Obviously, whether there is a systematic failure is clearly up for debate, and the burden of proof is on those claiming there is, and as of yet I have not heard great evidence, though I have heard some compelling speculation. We won't know until Tuesday.




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