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  1. #193

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread



    Not sure if this means anything or not, but apparently Romney's internal polling is what has him thinking Pennsylvania could fall to him, as well as Wisconsin.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...=feeds-newsxml




  2. #194
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by StingerNLG View Post
    Not sure if this means anything or not, but apparently Romney's internal polling is what has him thinking Pennsylvania could fall to him, as well as Wisconsin.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...=feeds-newsxml
    Very interesting.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  3. #195
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Speaking of PA, over 30,000 showed up in PA to see Mitt in the freezing cold last night.


    More large crowds to see Mitt in VA today where Rasmussen has Mitt up by +2.
    Britt Hume on FOX said last night he's watching his home state of Va not Ohio.

    Romney is leading in eastern Oh and western PA. If the undecideds haven't decided
    yet, they will vote tomorrow for Mitt because they just can't make up their mind with
    the status quo and Mitt is talking about the future and ways to solve the probs.'

    Another guy just said the crowds for Mitt in Ohio and PA are unbelieveable.

    Eric Cantor the rising GOP star of the House says Mitt will win his state in VA. Again
    the crowds have been unbelieveable..
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-05-2012 at 03:28 PM.
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




  4. #196
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Everything points to a Romney land slide except the polls.


    And don't forget The Redskins Rule. The Redskins did us a favor yesterday by losing. In the last 18 of 19 elections where they lost at home just before the election, the incumbent lost. It's called the Redskins Rule-lol. Hail to the RedSkins . ILMAO

    http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/20...mney_landslide
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-05-2012 at 05:19 PM.
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




  5. #197
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Mitt is winning the early voting in Colorado and the state has been trending right. This
    is another blown lead by OBY. Even the DEM expert agreed but his map had them getting
    294-300 elect votes w/o it.

    ABCs poll has OBY up by +1. This is a DEM network poll.

    Charles Krautheimer-sp just said that +2 lead by Mitt could be enough to push him
    over. With Col, PA and New Hamp still in play, one of those states could win it for him
    he said.

    INTERNAL POLLS JUST POSTED AT 5:27 PM

    MITT UP IN OHIO BY +1
    MITT UP IN IOWA BY +2
    MITT UP IN NH BY +3

    TIED IN PA AND WISC.




    http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/0...-in-pa-and-wi/
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-05-2012 at 05:39 PM.
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




  6. #198

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    National polls don't matter much this year. It is primarily Ohio that determines the election, followed by Florida and Virginia. Romney has NOT lead in a single Ohio poll recently and only led like once in a poll the whole year. The best recently he did was a tie by Rasmussen. Ohio has been like the most polled state in the country by the left and right and even the right leaners like gravis and we ask America have Obama ahead. Romney has to pray for catostrophically bad dem turnout to get Ohio and based on all that early voting, it is unlikely. Supposed to be sunny and in the 50s there so forget a bad weather swing...now Florida is a totally different story. He has been leading a lot in their polls so he should win that. Virginia is the closest one but even there Romney is leading in just one poll. The problem is it's a Rasmussen poll that has a significantly lower sample size than the other polls and it has a higher than average margin of error of 4 points. Obama could win virginia by 1-2 points (typical edge recent VA polls have obama at) and that would correctly fall in line with what Ras projects. Tomorrow comes down to turnout, plain and simple.




  7. #199
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    If Mitt can pull PA and WI, he doesn't need OH.

    Now that the campaigning is over, I am putting money on Obama now.

    I don't think Mitt moved far enough ahead in the polls to get to the magic EV number.

    Hope I am wrong though.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  8. #200

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    If Mitt can pull PA and WI, he doesn't need OH.

    Now that the campaigning is over, I am putting money on Obama now.

    I don't think Mitt moved far enough ahead in the polls to get to the magic EV number.

    Hope I am wrong though.
    Yeah, but it's even worse for him in those states. He hasn't lead in ANY recent polls in either states and it's not even close. Best poll he got is a tie in one PA poll where everyone else has Obama up by 2-8 points. Best case scenario for Romney winning is he somehow wins FL, VA, OH, and Colorado. I think NC is obviously going Romney so those 4 states should do it but he has about the same odds of flipping a coin 4 times in a row and getting heads on all of them. His campaign has sooooooo much money which is why he's doing a hail mary and throwing a bunch of $ into PA and WI and hoping for the best.




  9. #201
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kojo View Post
    Yeah, but it's even worse for him in those states. He hasn't lead in ANY recent polls in either states and it's not even close. Best poll he got is a tie in one PA poll where everyone else has Obama up by 2-8 points. Best case scenario for Romney winning is he somehow wins FL, VA, OH, and Colorado. I think NC is obviously going Romney so those 4 states should do it but he has about the same odds of flipping a coin 4 times in a row and getting heads on all of them. His campaign has sooooooo much money which is why he's doing a hail mary and throwing a bunch of $ into PA and WI and hoping for the best.
    I'm not as doom and gloom as you seem to be.

    He has a great chance at winning FL and VA. Outside of those two, it's a toss up and toss ups tend to go to the incumbent.

    Mitt's comments about the auto bail out cost him dearly in OH. I think that's why we are seeing the deluge of money into PA and WI to compensate for the math problem from losing OH.

    And I don't buy that leaked story about Mitt's internals for one second. A random GOP pollster is not going to have access to a candidates internal polling, let alone leak them. Those polls are guarded better than the President himself.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  10. #202
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    That exact amount spent in PA was $10M by GOP in the last week alone to $3M for DEMs.
    I guess that's a closely guarded secret too.

    _____________________________________________________
    Internal campaign polling completed on Sunday night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin. Most startlingly, the figures show Romney and Obama deadlocked in Pennsylvania.

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...#ixzz2BP1PVVjQ
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
    ____________________________________

    Clinton made 4 stops there today and some chick on FOX said every DEM leader she talked to in the state is confused as to why he is there. They say PA is not in play. OBY obviously disagrees and if you watched him today he looked tired his voice dragged and he just wants to get it over with while Mitt was energetic and strong.


    One thing HR is not mentioning. Brit Hume quoted that Gallup poll with a +1 pt lead,which is the grand daddy of all polls doing it the longest and asking the widest range of questions and polling likely voters.

    Hume said that +1 pt lead is equivalent to a blow out for Mitt which is what Dick has
    been preaching all summer.
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-05-2012 at 07:44 PM.
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




  11. #203

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    I'm not as doom and gloom as you seem to be.

    He has a great chance at winning FL and VA. Outside of those two, it's a toss up and toss ups tend to go to the incumbent.

    Mitt's comments about the auto bail out cost him dearly in OH. I think that's why we are seeing the deluge of money into PA and WI to compensate for the math problem from losing OH.

    And I don't buy that leaked story about Mitt's internals for one second. A random GOP pollster is not going to have access to a candidates internal polling, let alone leak them. Those polls are guarded better than the President himself.
    So basically all the actual numbers in Ohio don't get outweighed to you by polls with samples that assume Obama will have a higher turnout than 2008? You also keep bringing up the auto-bailout being a negative on Mitt. What about the coal comments being a negative for Obama? Coal miners are highly angry over Obama's words and actions in that state and PA.

    BTW, he's going into PA because he has people telling him he can win PA. Not as a hail mary. Barack Obama went to Indiana right before the 2008 election, and won that state. WON INDIANA. In fact, Jay Cost wrote a really good article about why Mitt went to PA. It's not a head-fake.

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/...ke_660255.html

    I'm very surprised you've fallen for the polls. Hell, CNN/ORG put out a national poll with the two guys tied with a D+11 sample and Mitt winning independents by 19! Seriously you are putting stock in the polling??
    Last edited by StingerNLG; 11-05-2012 at 07:55 PM.




  12. #204

    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    An interesting tweet tonight BTW from Peggy Noonan (who endorsed Obama in 08)

    "I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what’s coming, and it’s part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama looks so roiled"

    Say what you want about Dick Morris and his crazy landslide theory, but Karl Rove knows more about presidential politics and such than all of us will ever forget. His map has Romney with 285 EV. I put stock in his opinion.




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