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  1. #85
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread



    Romney up by +5 in FLA according to new poll. With Penn in play, if
    Mitt gets Ohio, it's over early.

    http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/2...ney-up-5-5146/
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




  2. #86
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    Because of a PPP poll. I swear the only exist to affect the averages on RCP.
    Perhaps.

    But Romney is still shakey on the electoral math. He may not need Ohio, but he needs to pick up a few more states if Ohio goes Blue.

    By the way (and no shock to you or I), Obama proposed almost a trillion in cuts to FEMA just last month. Of course, not a peep about it on the MSM.

    Flood Hazard Mapping and Risk Analysis Program - $8 million
    State and Local Emergency Programs (non-defense) - $183 million
    State and Local Emergency Programs (defense) - $5 million
    United States Fire Administration and Training - $4 million
    Salaries and Expenses (non-defense) - $75 million
    Salaries and Expenses (defense) - $7 million
    Disaster Relief - $580 million

    Pages 94-96 of this: http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/defa.../stareport.pdf
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  3. #87
    I think Mitt is taking Ohio. Rasmussen has him up 2 now, and other more heavily skewed Dem polls have them tied or within a point . There is no way Ohio turnout is what it was in 2008. Republicans are way to energized there.



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  4. #88
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by StingerNLG View Post
    I think Mitt is taking Ohio. Rasmussen has him up 2 now, and other more heavily skewed Dem polls have them tied or within a point . There is no way Ohio turnout is what it was in 2008. Republicans are way to energized there.

    Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2
    That would be nice.

    This whole thing has been a roller coaster ride. You watch the Romney rallies and see the crowds and they seem similar to Obama in 08. But the polls are still showing it neck and neck but Obama under 48 in most polls.

    I guess it's all about turnout...
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  5. #89
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Don't forget NC how we've been saying most of these polls are skewed. Like you posted, PPP exists just to
    average out Real Clear's polls. You were right.

    Just focus on the Gallup and Romney polls and those
    huges crowds. They got OBY elected the last time and
    will win it for Mitt now.

    Gallup gave Mitt all the bounce points from the debates - up to 7 at one point. No one has lost
    the election with 6 points from Gallup that late in the
    election.

    And Rasmussen, the most accurate still had Mitt up
    by +5 last I checked.
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




  6. #90
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    Obama is trending up now, in Ohio and in the Rasmussen poll.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  7. #91
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Obama is trending up now, in Ohio and in the Rasmussen poll.
    If you take out the BS clearly bias polls that have equal or higher Dem turnout than 08, it's an almost even race well with in the margin of error.

    The Rasmussen polls has been the same for about 3 days and before the 49-47 it was 50-47 and before that was 50-46 it's a slow trend if a trend at all.

    I am not predicting Romney will win Ohio or any other state, just that the polls are very strange with their sample what they're reporting.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  8. #92
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    To illustrate my point.


    http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily...s-quo-20121031
    In its likely-voter model, the Congressional Connection Poll projected that the 2012 electorate will be virtually unchanged from 2008, with Democrats holding an 8 percentage-point advantage among voters (compared with 7 points last time) and whites representing 73 percent of voters (compared to 74 percent last time).

    Other recent polls, such as the Pew Research Center survey released on Monday showing a tied race, have found a narrower, or nonexistent, Democratic identification advantage for 2012. Romney’s prospects, obviously, will increase the more the partisan gap declines. The biggest message from the survey is that even small changes in the electorate’s composition next week could have huge ramifications in a campaign that is dividing the nation so closely.
    Doesn't mean this won't be the turnout, but it's unlikely given what we've been through the last 4 years.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  9. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Obama is trending up now, in Ohio and in the Rasmussen poll.
    Not seeing it in Rasmussen. He has been stuck at 47% for a while.

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  10. #94
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Rasmussen had Mitt up by +5 before the storm, Gallup by +6.

    Ras now has Mitt up by +2 on real clear.

    Hannity just asked him for a prediction and he said he just doesn't
    know and anyone who says he does is lying. It's that close.

    Ras was the closest in each election since Gore v Bush and said
    it would be close enough for a recall.
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




  11. #95
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    The Chair of the RNC is on right now and said the early voting is
    favoring Romney. They are over-performing compared to 4 years
    ago while the DEMs are under-performing.

    If you go county by county the GOP is over-performing.

    The early voting was supposed to be in OBYs favor.

    He said they know results of every ballot being turned out.

    They're getting the independents.

    So don't count on the polls.
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-01-2012 at 08:19 AM.
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




  12. #96
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    Re: RCP Electoral Map Thread

    Today, Rasmussen has em tied in Wisconsin and Mitt up by +3 in
    Colorado - two winnable states with 5 days left according to real clear.

    A local Va poll, Roanoke College, has Mitt taking that state by
    +5 according to real clear, so he at least has Colorado and
    Virginia in the bag with Wisc and Ohio tied.
    Last edited by AirFlacco; 11-01-2012 at 08:21 AM.
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




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