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  1. #1

    Some stats at the quarter pole....dissecting what they mean



    First, here are some straightforward ones:

    Joe Flacco: 1269 passing yards, on pace for 5076, yet still only 3rd in the league, which shows you the direction the game has gone.

    Ray Rice:491 yards from scrimmage. That puts him on pace for 1964 for the year. If he can average 125.8 YFS for the remainder of the season, that will give him his 3rd 2000 YFS of his career. Assuming he does, that he will join an elite company of current and future Hall of Famers with Faulk (4 times), Payton (4), Dickerson (4), Tomlinson (3), Barber (3), Holmes (3), and James (3). That's pretty elite company.

    Rice currently trails Jamaal Charles for the lead in YFS, so Sunday's matchup will be interesting in that respect. However, Jamaal Charles only gets to play that pitiful, pitiful Saints defense once this year, and most of his yards seem to come at the expense of that historically-awful defense.


    Now here are some of the stats I thought were a bit bizarre.

    Ravens Defense:

    Points allowed: ranked 10th (respectable)
    Yards allowed: ranked 23rd (not good)

    As bad as our offense has been at times, having this type of rank disparity is typically a sign of a good team.



    Rush attempts allowed: 7th most
    Rush yards allowed: 13th
    Rush yards/carry allowed: 3.2 (tied for 3rd in NFL)

    So, again, that is a positive stat for the defense. Teams are running the ball a bunch against us, but with minimal success.


    Passing yards/game allowed: 29th in NFL
    Pass attempts/game against: 4th most
    Pass completes allowed per game: 24th
    Pass completion % by opponent- 10th
    Opposing passer rating- 10th in NFL

    I think this might again mean that our defense isn't really as bad as it might have seemed. Even though we are giving up yards too easily, it seems to be a byproduct of a very high amount of attempts by opposing offenses. If we give up the 4th most amount of attempts, it's logical to think that an average defense would give up the 4th most yards, which we have. What would be alarming would be if we were middle of the pack in attempts against and in the bottom four in yards allowed. Yet, that's clearly not what has happened.

    Even though we have seemingly struggled quantitatively on defense, we are still a decent/above average using every qualitative measure available, both in terms of how we are limiting the efficiency of our opposing QBs and in terms of limiting the opposing running game.

    Our stats are skewed by the fact that we have allowed so many plays against us. We have allowed the 7th most rush attempts against us (despite our success stopping the run) and the 4th most pass attempts. The Ravens defense has faced 291 offensive plays this year, tied for 3rd most. By comparison, the Texans (arguably the AFC's best defense) have only had 232. Those extra 59 plays are nearly a games-worth of defensive snaps that the Ravens have faced over a team like Houston. No wonder we are towards the bottom in the league in yards/game allowed.


    Now here's the strange stat:

    Pass TDs allowed: 2 (Tied for 1st in NFL)


    So, this team is 29th in Yards per game allowed, yet only 2nd in pass TDs allowed. Again, I think this is a good sign, that despite the lack of a pass rush, our defense has really maximized it's productivity by being the kings of the "bend but don't break" effiency mode. Yes, the Ravens have given up 6 rushing TDs, some of which were due to drives that were mostly passing plays, but this stat does show that, while the Ravens might give up a lot of yards in front of them, they've protected the goal line extremely well.


    One last stat:

    1st downs allowed: 30th

    So, this stat kinda sums up the entire compilation of these stats. The Ravens defensive "problems" have been a byproduct of one thing, an inability to get off the football field. Everyone is talking about these high yardage totals as a sign of despair for our defense. They're not. Our defense is limiting our opposing offenses, and opposing QBs, to below-league-average levels of productivity. They aren't top 5 levels like we are accustomed to seeing, but it's still within the acceptable ranges. Our defense is also doing a great job of keeping the ball out of the end zone in relation to the amount of yards allowed.

    Allowing our opponents 73 plays/game is clearly unacceptable, but I would consider this a much smaller sin than giving up oodles of points. I would also consider it a smaller sin than allowing opposing QBs to go wild against us (there are 9 teams who have allowed an opposing QB rating of 99.7 or higher so far this year, which is ridiculous). The QB rating against us this year is 78.4. That's 10 points worse than the league leading 68.8 we allowed last year, but I don't see any stat where we are in the top 10 as troubling in the least.

    The encouraging part of this is would figure to be a correctable issue. Naturally, the return of an effective Suggs changes a lot. However, even without him, I don't think it's reason to panic. I would be far more concerned if the Ravens were allowing opposing offenses to pass the ball up and down the field with little resistance. When you look at all the stats and our passing TDs allowed, that's clearly not the case. One area of improvement in 3rd down stops and we are back in our normal spot in the top 8-10 defenses in the league. Even if the improvement never comes, there are bigger areas impacting other defenses around the league. I can live with the yards as long as they don't translate into points, and based on the season's first four games, our defensive efficiency is doing just fine.




  2. #2

    Re: Some stats at the quarter pole....dissecting what they mean

    Makes we wonder how much of those 291 defensive snaps are a result of our 3rd down defense being below average or our quick strike offense scoring too quickly. It's probably the 3rd down defense. Can anyone dig up those numbers?




  3. #3

    Re: Some stats at the quarter pole....dissecting what they mean

    Quote Originally Posted by pslholder96 View Post
    Makes we wonder how much of those 291 defensive snaps are a result of our 3rd down defense being below average or our quick strike offense scoring too quickly. It's probably the 3rd down defense. Can anyone dig up those numbers?
    Ya know, I was thinking of mentioning our offense as a culprit in our defensive lackings, but didn't want to ramble on any longer than I had already. Our offense has been highly efficient in terms of yards collected, but they seem to come in huge clumps and I think that might be a detriment to the defense. When the offense is clicking, we have a lot of 3-4 minute scoring drives. When it's not, we have a lot of very quick drives. That has to impact the defense in some way, but I'm not sure what stats would support this theory.




  4. #4

    Re: Some stats at the quarter pole....dissecting what they mean

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Ya know, I was thinking of mentioning our offense as a culprit in our defensive lackings, but didn't want to ramble on any longer than I had already. Our offense has been highly efficient in terms of yards collected, but they seem to come in huge clumps and I think that might be a detriment to the defense. When the offense is clicking, we have a lot of 3-4 minute scoring drives. When it's not, we have a lot of very quick drives. That has to impact the defense in some way, but I'm not sure what stats would support this theory.
    I recall seeing on NFL.com that the Ravens lead the league in most offensive plays of 25+ yards more so there's definately some truth to the offense gaining their yards in big chunks.




  5. #5

    Re: Some stats at the quarter pole....dissecting what they mean

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Ya know, I was thinking of mentioning our offense as a culprit in our defensive lackings, but didn't want to ramble on any longer than I had already. Our offense has been highly efficient in terms of yards collected, but they seem to come in huge clumps and I think that might be a detriment to the defense. When the offense is clicking, we have a lot of 3-4 minute scoring drives. When it's not, we have a lot of very quick drives. That has to impact the defense in some way, but I'm not sure what stats would support this theory.
    The Ravens' offensive time of possession is 28:48 per game, despite the fact the Ravens out gain their opponents 424 to 390 yards/game. That would indicate that our drives are faster than our opponents, potentially contributing to the defensive problems. When you consider that the Ravens defense is tied for 13th in the NFL with allowing 1st downs on only 35% of opponents' 3rd down attempts, the Ravens defense isn't really having that much trouble getting off the field.

    It really looks like the Ravens offensive no-huddle is what is hurting the Ravens defensive stats. But I think that's ok, because as long as our offense is scoring points while gaining all those yards they will still win the games.

    Good thread - I think the stats DO say something: things aren't all that bad on defense.




  6. #6

    Re: Some stats at the quarter pole....dissecting what they mean

    Hmmm..just looked up our 3rd down defensive rankings, we are tied for 13th in the league at 35% and we've faced 60 third down attempts which is tied for 3rd most in the league. We are just not getting off the field when we need to and therefore our inability to bring the QB down can be a little glaring here. We've only collected 9 sacks in 4 games thus far. That number needs to get better




  7. #7

    Re: Some stats at the quarter pole....dissecting what they mean

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    First, here are some straightforward ones:

    Joe Flacco: 1269 passing yards, on pace for 5076, yet still only 3rd in the league, which shows you the direction the game has gone.

    Ray Rice:491 yards from scrimmage. That puts him on pace for 1964 for the year. If he can average 125.8 YFS for the remainder of the season, that will give him his 3rd 2000 YFS of his career. Assuming he does, that he will join an elite company of current and future Hall of Famers with Faulk (4 times), Payton (4), Dickerson (4), Tomlinson (3), Barber (3), Holmes (3), and James (3). That's pretty elite company.

    Rice currently trails Jamaal Charles for the lead in YFS, so Sunday's matchup will be interesting in that respect. However, Jamaal Charles only gets to play that pitiful, pitiful Saints defense once this year, and most of his yards seem to come at the expense of that historically-awful defense.


    Now here are some of the stats I thought were a bit bizarre.

    Ravens Defense:

    Points allowed: ranked 10th (respectable)
    Yards allowed: ranked 23rd (not good)

    As bad as our offense has been at times, having this type of rank disparity is typically a sign of a good team.



    Rush attempts allowed: 7th most
    Rush yards allowed: 13th
    Rush yards/carry allowed: 3.2 (tied for 3rd in NFL)

    So, again, that is a positive stat for the defense. Teams are running the ball a bunch against us, but with minimal success.


    Passing yards/game allowed: 29th in NFL
    Pass attempts/game against: 4th most
    Pass completes allowed per game: 24th
    Pass completion % by opponent- 10th
    Opposing passer rating- 10th in NFL

    I think this might again mean that our defense isn't really as bad as it might have seemed. Even though we are giving up yards too easily, it seems to be a byproduct of a very high amount of attempts by opposing offenses. If we give up the 4th most amount of attempts, it's logical to think that an average defense would give up the 4th most yards, which we have. What would be alarming would be if we were middle of the pack in attempts against and in the bottom four in yards allowed. Yet, that's clearly not what has happened.

    Even though we have seemingly struggled quantitatively on defense, we are still a decent/above average using every qualitative measure available, both in terms of how we are limiting the efficiency of our opposing QBs and in terms of limiting the opposing running game.

    Our stats are skewed by the fact that we have allowed so many plays against us. We have allowed the 7th most rush attempts against us (despite our success stopping the run) and the 4th most pass attempts. The Ravens defense has faced 291 offensive plays this year, tied for 3rd most. By comparison, the Texans (arguably the AFC's best defense) have only had 232. Those extra 59 plays are nearly a games-worth of defensive snaps that the Ravens have faced over a team like Houston. No wonder we are towards the bottom in the league in yards/game allowed.


    Now here's the strange stat:

    Pass TDs allowed: 2 (Tied for 1st in NFL)


    So, this team is 29th in Yards per game allowed, yet only 2nd in pass TDs allowed. Again, I think this is a good sign, that despite the lack of a pass rush, our defense has really maximized it's productivity by being the kings of the "bend but don't break" effiency mode. Yes, the Ravens have given up 6 rushing TDs, some of which were due to drives that were mostly passing plays, but this stat does show that, while the Ravens might give up a lot of yards in front of them, they've protected the goal line extremely well.


    One last stat:

    1st downs allowed: 30th

    So, this stat kinda sums up the entire compilation of these stats. The Ravens defensive "problems" have been a byproduct of one thing, an inability to get off the football field. Everyone is talking about these high yardage totals as a sign of despair for our defense. They're not. Our defense is limiting our opposing offenses, and opposing QBs, to below-league-average levels of productivity. They aren't top 5 levels like we are accustomed to seeing, but it's still within the acceptable ranges. Our defense is also doing a great job of keeping the ball out of the end zone in relation to the amount of yards allowed.

    Allowing our opponents 73 plays/game is clearly unacceptable, but I would consider this a much smaller sin than giving up oodles of points. I would also consider it a smaller sin than allowing opposing QBs to go wild against us (there are 9 teams who have allowed an opposing QB rating of 99.7 or higher so far this year, which is ridiculous). The QB rating against us this year is 78.4. That's 10 points worse than the league leading 68.8 we allowed last year, but I don't see any stat where we are in the top 10 as troubling in the least.

    The encouraging part of this is would figure to be a correctable issue. Naturally, the return of an effective Suggs changes a lot. However, even without him, I don't think it's reason to panic. I would be far more concerned if the Ravens were allowing opposing offenses to pass the ball up and down the field with little resistance. When you look at all the stats and our passing TDs allowed, that's clearly not the case. One area of improvement in 3rd down stops and we are back in our normal spot in the top 8-10 defenses in the league. Even if the improvement never comes, there are bigger areas impacting other defenses around the league. I can live with the yards as long as they don't translate into points, and based on the season's first four games, our defensive efficiency is doing just fine.
    Awesome. Love it.

    It seems like a lot of the passing yards came late in games as well, would love to see a breakdown by quarter.

    The one obvious stat that i have mentioned before is the YPC against, everyone was soooo scared to death about losing Suggs/JJ/FRedding, they fail to realize with our Dline and 52 in the middle we can still be one of the best.

    The setting of the edge is going just fine.




  8. #8

    Re: Some stats at the quarter pole....dissecting what they mean

    The Bengals game is the perfect example.

    We scored so fast on our drives and our defense let the Bengals drive slowly down the field nearly every time.
    360 tag: Ahhhhhhhhnold




  9. #9

    Re: Some stats at the quarter pole....dissecting what they mean

    I pointed out the defensive passer rating in another thread before the Cleveland game, but it's worth bringing up again. I think our pass defense is the single biggest difference between this year and last so far.

    2011
    att: 534
    comp: 288
    %: 53.9
    Y/A: 6.4
    td: 11
    int: 15
    defensive passer rating: 69.0 (1st in NFL)

    2012
    att: 162
    comp: 98
    %: 60.5
    Y/A: 7.7
    td: 2
    int: 4
    defensive passer rating: 78.4 (10th in NFL)

    It's actually a lot better now than it was last week--Weeden's effort really helped this stat line across the board. However, it's interesting to note that the Ravens only gave up a passer rating above 90 twice all of last year--to Hasselbeck week 2 and to Rivers week 15. That's already happened twice so far this year--Vick had 94.7, and Brady was 101.2, which is almost double his rating from the AFCCG, and in M&T.

    I can only surmise that the comparative lack of pass rush is giving opposing QBs more instances of ATS (as Filmstudy calls it), because this is basically the same secondary from last year, no? With what seems to be an improved Ed Reed... So, more ATS, more chance that they find a target/can make the throw to get it there.




  10. #10

    Re: Some stats at the quarter pole....dissecting what they mean

    Quote Originally Posted by redmike34 View Post
    I pointed out the defensive passer rating in another thread before the Cleveland game, but it's worth bringing up again. I think our pass defense is the single biggest difference between this year and last so far.

    2011
    att: 534
    comp: 288
    %: 53.9
    Y/A: 6.4
    td: 11
    int: 15
    defensive passer rating: 69.0 (1st in NFL)

    2012
    att: 162
    comp: 98
    %: 60.5
    Y/A: 7.7
    td: 2
    int: 4
    defensive passer rating: 78.4 (10th in NFL)

    It's actually a lot better now than it was last week--Weeden's effort really helped this stat line across the board. However, it's interesting to note that the Ravens only gave up a passer rating above 90 twice all of last year--to Hasselbeck week 2 and to Rivers week 15. That's already happened twice so far this year--Vick had 94.7, and Brady was 101.2, which is almost double his rating from the AFCCG, and in M&T.

    I can only surmise that the comparative lack of pass rush is giving opposing QBs more instances of ATS (as Filmstudy calls it), because this is basically the same secondary from last year, no? With what seems to be an improved Ed Reed... So, more ATS, more chance that they find a target/can make the throw to get it there
    .
    Pressure bursts pipes. And helps out secondaries.




  11. #11

    Re: Some stats at the quarter pole....dissecting what they mean

    I find it dissappointing that our front 7 cannot generate genuine pass rush without Suggs. I mean even McPhee was so good in this department last year, but I didn't expect much drop off considering Ngata is still there to simply bully linemen.

    To me, Kruger and McPhee are more disappointments than Upshaw's (as he was our first pick) simply because they've been there and the other is sill a rookie.
    Self appointed Ravens SuperFan in the southern hemisphere/New Zealand.




  12. #12

    Re: Some stats at the quarter pole....dissecting what they mean

    Quote Originally Posted by admartian View Post
    I find it dissappointing that our front 7 cannot generate genuine pass rush without Suggs. I mean even McPhee was so good in this department last year, but I didn't expect much drop off considering Ngata is still there to simply bully linemen.

    To me, Kruger and McPhee are more disappointments than Upshaw's (as he was our first pick) simply because they've been there and the other is sill a rookie.
    The problem is still Suggs is not in there. Last year with Suggs in you had two guys (Suggs, Ngata) taking up 4 OLinemen, leaving McPhee or Kruger one on one on most 3rd downs on the other side.




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