Election Day 2012 Thread

[Haloti92]

I think they are adding in Colorado, which right now the Sec of State there is saying GOP still has a +2 turnout over Dems.

BTW, this just in from Ohio. http://www.cleveland.com/west-geauga..._predicts.html Expecting 80% turnout from a precinct McCain won 57%.

If Colorado were included then total would be 275. Anyway, I think the guy just had a brain cramp and didn't check his figures. 271 is a tough total to get to (assuming Ohio-for-Romney scenarios) unless you start talking 1 EV from Maine plus New Hampshire (1+4), because those 4 states mentioned (NC/VA/FL/OH) equals 266, then 271 is 5 more, and no 5 EV states are in play.

As for that county turnout number it is semi-encouraging, but somewhat ambiguous. That county had 78% turnout in 2008 with a lot less enthusiasm for McCain than Romney. So hopefully Romney isn't just doing 2% better in turnout (i.e. Obama's turnout in that county is close to flat), but rather Obama's turnout is like 5% less in the county than 2008 and Romneys is 6-7% more than 2008 in that county.

Regardless of whether Romney wins or loses Ohio, he is going to beat McCain's Ohio performance. On that everyone agrees. So we aren't talking about doing better than 2008, we are talking about doing a significant amount better. And I am fairly sure that the amount cannot be made up simply by our side turning out more (the gap is too big from 2008), it has to be a combination of our side turns out more AND their side turns out less. Both are very reasonable assumptions even if I am worried about the latter part more than the former.

[HoustonRaven]

Pretty meaningless suburb of Cleveland that's home to a large Amish community.

It's going to Mitt regardless.

[NCRAVEN]

Pretty meaningless suburb of Cleveland that's home to a large Amish community.

It's going to Mitt regardless.

Damn you and raining on our parade.

Let us have this till the results come in!!!!!

[NCRAVEN]

Anyone listening to Hannity?

He is talking to Billy Cunningham on the ground in Ohio saying Butler and Hamilton county turnout for Republicans is OVER THE TOP.

[HoustonRaven]

Rasmussen has no idea who is going to win ....

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/top-polls...-going-to-win/

And on point with what I've been trying to say ....

Rasmussen said the political makeup of the country (four years ago, it was D +7) is an important factor that may not be considered by some polls, but said it’s not conclusive that the enthusiasm on the Republican side will translate into more voters.

[StingerNLG]

http://youtu.be/abRyAEE4S4M

Huh.

[NCRAVEN]

If anyone needs a link. Bill Cunningham will be back on with Hannity talking about Ohio turnout at 5:00.

http://player.streamtheworld.com/_pl...adel/?sid=1057

[AirFlacco]

Bite Me Biden was in Ohio today so they are
abviously worried about the hi GOP turnout and
TV showed OBY making calls to Cleveland today
instead of just waiting around for results.

Bad mojo for them.

www.hotair.com

[AirFlacco]

For those doing the math and for those that aren't, here's 7 states electoral math made
easy.


http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/0...ath-made-easy/

[StingerNLG]

On an aside and non-partisan note, I wonder if the late Great Johnny Unitas would say: "Polls are cheap, let's vote."

[Haloti92]

More anecdotal, but seemingly positive, data:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...ich-lowry#more

Hopefully these trends continue and are enough.

[Paintballguy]

http://www.breitbart.com/InstaBlog/2...s-Down-In-Blue

Quick update – turnout is up in GOP Geauga County, Ohio where McCain won with 57% of the vote and down in Athens County, the home of Ohio University and where Obama won with 67% in 2008. Early vote in Geauga? 125% of 2008. Athens? Down 10% from 2008.
SHOT: GOP county turnout up
Plain Dealer: Geauga election chief predicts 80 percent voter turnout today
Geauga County early vote was 125% more than 2008 early vote
McCain won Geauga County with 57% and Bush got 60% in ‘04
CHASER: Dem county turnout down
WOUB: Athens County Election Officials: Morning Voter Turn Out Low
Athens County early vote was 10% less than 2008 early vote
Obama won Athens County with 67%

[NCRAVEN]

More anecdotal, but seemingly positive, data:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...ich-lowry#more

Hopefully these trends continue and are enough.

Seems positive...

[StingerNLG]

Rasmussen has no idea who is going to win ....

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/top-polls...-going-to-win/

And on point with what I've been trying to say ....

I hear you. But I think most people have agreed that if his party ID is correct and this election is R+6, there is not enough votes that Obama could take from the R side to win. And some even say if the election is D+3 or under, Romney likely wins.

[Haloti92]

The problem with "turnout up in XYZ county" messages is that in general (looking at totals not specific counties) we don't want a significantly higher combined turnout than 2008. We want, overall, like the same turnout except less Dems, more GOP. If the absolute totals are higher than it could be same Dems, more GOP, which I don't think is enough.

Obviously we are getting reports of GOP county up, Dem county down, which are good (but better the more lopsided the county is in terms of turnout), but I hope the overall turnout isn't totally off the charts, that would likely mean Dems are turning out closer to 2008 levels than we want.

[Haloti92]

More "By Any Means Necessary" Democrat shenanigans:

http://mediatrackers.org/2012/11/06/...-in-wisconsin/

Combined with same-day registration, and this stuff could hurt.

[NCRAVEN]

More "By Any Means Necessary" Democrat shenanigans:

http://mediatrackers.org/2012/11/06/...-in-wisconsin/

Combined with same-day registration, and this stuff could hurt.

If ya ain't cheating, ya ain't Democrat.

[HoustonRaven]

Report: Marvin Lewis confused in voting booth, burns two challenges in 3 minutes.

[HoustonRaven]

Take a peek at Drudge folks.

Not good.

[Paintballguy]

Take a peek at Drudge folks.

Not good.

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Ignore the exit polls everyone... looks like a tight race and that's what we all expected. They'll change quite a bit as the night goes on.