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  1. #37
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    Nah, we don't need voter ID laws ....

    http://www.nbcbayarea.com/investigat...177286281.html
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  2. #38

    Re: Election Day 2012 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    I hope he is right, but his math of the Electoral votes is off, which makes me a bit concerned about relying on his overall take.

    He says Romney gets to 271 with VA and OH, which is false. Romney is at 266, still one state short at that point. So assuming Obama wins Iowa and New Hampshire (which I am not, but that guy is), then Romney is at 266 and WI and CO are certainly not "icing on the cake," one of them is needed. This is easy to see when he says Romney finishes with WI and CO (the supposed "icing) but only 285 EVs. WI (10) and CO (9) are worth 19, so 19 from 285 is 266 (short of goal).

    I am sticking with: Romney wins Ohio, he wins. Romney loses Ohio, he loses. I am slowly being convinced (probably wishful thinking), that PA is possible even with an OH loss. Reading some speculation about Obama's Philly ground game being rusty and unprepared, and their standard election-day union GOTV reinforcements from NJ and NY being occupied with Sandy cleanup. Probably why they are resorting to fraud.

    I still am very skeptical of a win w/o either OH or PA (like the WI, CO, IA or NH path). That path I think is only going to happen if either OH or PA or both already have happened, i.e. it will happen only in the cases it isn't even needed.
    I'm not skeptical about Ohio. I'm telling you I am hearing on the ground there that GOP voting counties are up and Dem voting counties are down. I still believe Romney is going to pull out Ohio.

    He gets to 271 with VA and OH adding Florida and NC. That's how he added them up.

    I don't know how Wisconsin wouldn't go Romney after the Scott Walker recall. Walker is more Conservative than Romney ever could be, and he beat back a massive union and Democrat attack. Those same voters coming out in this election gives him the state.




  3. #39

    Re: Election Day 2012 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by StingerNLG View Post
    He gets to 271 with VA and OH adding Florida and NC. That's how he added them up.
    Yeah, except those 4 states don't get to 271. They get to 266. Romney needs those 4 and one other "swing state." Check it out.

    I hear you about Ohio and Wisconsin and the whole election outlook. I would love for it to be perfectly accurate, but I am nervous and pessimistic. The demographics mandate that Romney turnout his supporters at historical rates, while Obama does not turnout his at 2008 (historic rates). I think the former will happen (Romney's turnout), what I am worried about is that Obama, with the extended early voting period and union armies and desperation and laser-like focus on a few states (firewalls), ends up just about matching his 2008 turnout (in the few states he needs to). This would result in a finish way way closer than Obama-McCain, but still leaving Romney short, imo.




  4. #40

    Re: Election Day 2012 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    Yeah, except those 4 states don't get to 271. They get to 266. Romney needs those 4 and one other "swing state." Check it out.

    I hear you about Ohio and Wisconsin and the whole election outlook. I would love for it to be perfectly accurate, but I am nervous and pessimistic. The demographics mandate that Romney turnout his supporters at historical rates, while Obama does not turnout his at 2008 (historic rates). I think the former will happen (Romney's turnout), what I am worried about is that Obama, with the extended early voting period and union armies and desperation and laser-like focus on a few states (firewalls), ends up just about matching his 2008 turnout (in the few states he needs to). This would result in a finish way way closer than Obama-McCain, but still leaving Romney short, imo.
    I think they are adding in Colorado, which right now the Sec of State there is saying GOP still has a +2 turnout over Dems.

    BTW, this just in from Ohio. http://www.cleveland.com/west-geauga..._predicts.html Expecting 80% turnout from a precinct McCain won 57%.




  5. #41

    Re: Election Day 2012 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by StingerNLG View Post
    I think they are adding in Colorado, which right now the Sec of State there is saying GOP still has a +2 turnout over Dems.

    BTW, this just in from Ohio. http://www.cleveland.com/west-geauga..._predicts.html Expecting 80% turnout from a precinct McCain won 57%.
    If Colorado were included then total would be 275. Anyway, I think the guy just had a brain cramp and didn't check his figures. 271 is a tough total to get to (assuming Ohio-for-Romney scenarios) unless you start talking 1 EV from Maine plus New Hampshire (1+4), because those 4 states mentioned (NC/VA/FL/OH) equals 266, then 271 is 5 more, and no 5 EV states are in play.

    As for that county turnout number it is semi-encouraging, but somewhat ambiguous. That county had 78% turnout in 2008 with a lot less enthusiasm for McCain than Romney. So hopefully Romney isn't just doing 2% better in turnout (i.e. Obama's turnout in that county is close to flat), but rather Obama's turnout is like 5% less in the county than 2008 and Romneys is 6-7% more than 2008 in that county.

    Regardless of whether Romney wins or loses Ohio, he is going to beat McCain's Ohio performance. On that everyone agrees. So we aren't talking about doing better than 2008, we are talking about doing a significant amount better. And I am fairly sure that the amount cannot be made up simply by our side turning out more (the gap is too big from 2008), it has to be a combination of our side turns out more AND their side turns out less. Both are very reasonable assumptions even if I am worried about the latter part more than the former.
    Last edited by Haloti92; 11-06-2012 at 03:48 PM.




  6. #42
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    Pretty meaningless suburb of Cleveland that's home to a large Amish community.

    It's going to Mitt regardless.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  7. #43
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    Re: Election Day 2012 Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    Pretty meaningless suburb of Cleveland that's home to a large Amish community.

    It's going to Mitt regardless.
    Damn you and raining on our parade.

    Let us have this till the results come in!!!!!
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  8. #44
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    Re: Election Day 2012 Thread

    Anyone listening to Hannity?

    He is talking to Billy Cunningham on the ground in Ohio saying Butler and Hamilton county turnout for Republicans is OVER THE TOP.
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  9. #45
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    Rasmussen has no idea who is going to win ....

    http://www.mediaite.com/tv/top-polls...-going-to-win/

    And on point with what I've been trying to say ....

    Rasmussen said the political makeup of the country (four years ago, it was D +7) is an important factor that may not be considered by some polls, but said itís not conclusive that the enthusiasm on the Republican side will translate into more voters.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  10. #46

    Re: Election Day 2012 Thread





  11. #47
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    Re: Election Day 2012 Thread

    If anyone needs a link. Bill Cunningham will be back on with Hannity talking about Ohio turnout at 5:00.

    http://player.streamtheworld.com/_pl...adel/?sid=1057
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  12. #48
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    Re: Election Day 2012 Thread

    Bite Me Biden was in Ohio today so they are
    abviously worried about the hi GOP turnout and
    TV showed OBY making calls to Cleveland today
    instead of just waiting around for results.

    Bad mojo for them.

    www.hotair.com
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




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