Win Streak Shines Light on Ravens Winning Formula

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Two key factors for winning in the NFL are limiting turnovers and converting in the Red Zone. Both have been improving during the Ravens current four game win streak.

Over the last four games the offense has converted at a rate of 57.7% and now has its highest league ranking in months. Joe Flacco has thrown five TDs compared to only two interceptions and Ray Rice has four rushing touchdowns. It’s clear the recent increase in efficiency ads up to wins, but which stats really comprise the winning formula for the Ravens in 2011?

The biggest indicator for a Ravens win is when Ray Rice has a rushing touchdown; they are 7-0 in those games. When the team commits less than two turnovers they are 6-0 and 0-3 when they have two or more. The Ravens are 5-0 when Joe Flacco has no interceptions and 3-3 when Ray Rice does not run for a score.

Now the Ravens face a dangerous Chargers team that finds its offense peaking at a critical time and coming off a 37-10 win over Buffalo. Recent history does bode well as the Ravens have gone 6-4 in west coast road trips since the 2000 season.

Category

2010 (rank)

2011 to date

2011 Ranking

Difference

Pts / Gm

22.3 (16)

24.6

9th

Tot Pts

357 (16)

320

9th

Yds / Gm

322.9 (22)

346.0

14th

Rush Yds/Gm

114.4 (14)

117.2

13th

Pass Yds/Gm

208.4 (20)

228.8

15th

1st downs/Gm

18.9 (18)

20.2

13th

3rd Down Pct.

39% (T-16)

42%

8th

4th Down Pct.

40% (T-21)

57%

T-9th

Penalties

90 (T-18)

77

22nd

TOP/Gm

31:20 (11)

30:55

10th

Fumbles

22 (T-17)

22

T-4th

Fumbles Lost

10 (T-17)

12

T-2nd

Turnovers

+7 (9)

+3

12th

Red Zone %

49.2% (22)

48.9%

19th

Flacco QB Rating

93.6 (7)

79.9

21st

Remaining Strength of Schedule for AFC teams in the Playoff Race

Team

Remaining Opponents Combined Record

Winning Pct.

Texans

11 – 28

.282

Titans

14 – 25

.359

Jets

16 – 23

.410

Steelers

16 – 23

.410

Patriots

17 – 22

.436

Ravens

17 – 22

.436

Bengals

18 – 21

.461

Raiders

19 – 20

.487

Broncos

20 – 19

.513

Chargers

25 – 14

.641

Red Zone Conversion Rate for Teams with a Winning Record

Team

2011 Red zone %

2010 Red zone %

1. NY Jets

71.8%

44.3%

2. Tennessee

65.5%

58.1%

3. New England

63.2%

61.9%

4. Green Bay

61.4%

62.7%

5. NY Giants

60.5%

57.4%

6. Detroit

57.8%

64.4%

7. Atlanta

56.5%

60.7%

8. Oakland

55.0%

52.1%

9. Chicago

54.5%

49.1%

10. New Orleans

53.4%

51.5%

11. Pittsburgh

52.3%

52.5%

12. Houston

49.0%

62.3%

13. Ravens

48.9%

49.2%

14. Cincinnati

48.7%

49.1%

15. Denver

46.4%

55.8%

16. Dallas

46.3%

59.6%

17. San Francisco

35.7%

47.6%

BTN will track the progress here on a weekly basis. Keep in mind for some categories a decrease is positive, as in the case of Fumbles lost, and an increase is negative, in as the case of Penalties.

 

This entry was posted in Behind the Numbers by Scot Kleinfeld. Bookmark the permalink.

About Scot Kleinfeld

Scot Kleinfeld
Scot is a Baltimore native, a Towson University graduate, and has followed sports since the early 1980's. Scot likes to go inside the numbers and get the real "411" on the wins and losses,  hence his Behind The Numbers column.   Besides being an avid sports fan, Scot has been...more

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