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IN THE HOOD: AFC NORTH WEEK 7

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AFC North
Team
W
L
T
PCT
PF
PA
Home
Road
AFC
NFC
DIV
Streak
Baltimore

 
4
2
0
.667
110
69
2-1
2-1
3-1
1-1
1-0
Lost 2
Cincinnati

 
3
2
0
.600
111
99
1-1
2-1
3-1
0-1
2-0
Lost 2
Pittsburgh

 
2
3
0
.400
106
84
2-1
0-2
2-3
0-0
0-1
Won 1
Cleveland

 
1
4
0
.200
81
109
0-2
1-2
1-2
0-2
0-2
Lost 1
 
 
Baltimore Ravens     (4-2)
 
 
The Carolina Panthers defeated the Baltimore Ravens (second straight loss) 23-21 on Sunday. In a game highlighted by outstanding receiver play by the Panthers particularly WR Steve Smith, the Ravens were able to score on 2 tipped passes caught by WR Mark Clayton to stay in the game until the end.
 
While the offense continues to sputter, the defense had its worst game of the 6 played to date. While we still have a lot to learn about this football team, we have learned that they never give up while playing hard to the end against difficult circumstances. What has changed in the last 2 games is the frequency of error that we did not see in the first 4 games.
 
The team has 6 turnovers in its 2 losses, 3 of which occurred in or near the red zone meaning that opportunities to score were eliminated by turnovers. In close games that trend will kill you. How can you excuse the RB Musa Smith fumble in the red zone that eliminated a field goal opportunity? Taken a step further, the running game appeared to be effective against the Panthers, particularly running to the edges. RB Jamal Lewis had 41 yards on 9 carries and would have certainly picked up 100+ yards had he received his normal number of carries.
 
But all of this begins with the turnovers in the red zone, falling behind, and abandoning the running game. Sunday’s game was an excellent example of this. Even on a day when the defense didn’t provide its best effort, the team could have won if it would have reduced its errors and run the ball.
 
 
 
Cincinnati Bengals     (3-2)
 
 
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored a controversial TD with 35 seconds remaining to upset the Cincinnati Bengals (second straight loss) by the score of 14-13. The TD reception by WR Michael Clayton for 8 yards was initially ruled an incomplete pass before the call was overturned by replay. The replay showed that Clayton had control of the ball when he extended his arms over the goal line.
 
Referee Mike Carey (Detroit vs. Baltimore in 2005, of the Suggs “had malice in his eyes” fame) reversed the call.
 
QB Carson Palmer threw a 33 yard TD pass to WR TJ Houshmandzadeh and K Shayne Graham kicked 2 FGs for the Bengals. The Bucs drove 54 yards in 9 plays for the winning score. QB Bruce Gradkowski had a 15-yard completion to Clayton, as well as a pair of 10-yarders to Michael Pittman. But the key to the march—as far as the Bengals were concerned—was the roughing-the-passer call that wiped out a fumble on a sack by Bengals DE Justin Smith.
 
“I don’t think I’ve ever seen a roughing-the-passer on a sack,” Palmer said. “We all need to go see the film on that.”
 
“I couldn’t believe it. That was the ballgame,” Smith said. “I didn’t slam him or anything like that. He just doubled over and fumbled the ball… It’s pretty hard to do anything to him if you can’t touch him.” Bengals coach Marvin Lewis thought the call was curious, too. “I guess you’ve got to cuddle him to the ground,” Lewis said. Palmer was 24 for 37 for 261 yards, no INTs and 2 sacks. Houshmandzadeh caught his TD pass over All-Pro CB Ronde Barber in the 2nd quarter and finished with 10 receptions for 102 yards.
 
 
 
Cleveland Browns     (1-4)
 
 
The Cleveland Browns were idle this past Sunday and will face the Denver Broncos in Cleveland on 10/22.
 
 
 
Pittsburgh Steelers     (2-3)
 
 
The Pittsburgh Steelers started fast at home against the Kansas City Chiefs and won the game in dominating fashion by the score of 45-7. QB Ben Roethlisberger was among the NFL’s lowest rated QBs with no TD passes and 7 INTs, but he was as sharp and polished as ever, going 16 for 19 for 238 yards and TDs of 47 yards to WR Nate Washington and 13 yards to WR Hines Ward.
 
The offensive line looked like the line of old, i.e. one of the league’s best as RB Willie Parker and RB Najeh Davenport combined for 33 carries for 187 yards. The Chiefs contributed to the Steelers success committing 4 turnovers including 1 interception by QB Damon Huard, 2 by back-up rookie QB Brodie Croyle and a fumble by DB Ty Law. Second year LB Rian Wallace, playing because of injuries to Joey Porter and James Harrison, had a 30 yard INT return for a TD. Former Pro Bowl LB Chad Brown, signed last week, had his 31st career sack with the Steelers in his first game for them in 9 years.
 
Interestingly, a team that has opened 1-3 has made the NFL playoffs 13 times in the past 16 years.
 
Chiefs RB Larry Johnson followed a 36-yard effort against Arizona with 26 yards on 15 carries and a TD. Johnson stood out only once in the unaccustomed role of tackler. He ran down Troy Polamalu on a 49-yard interception return in the third quarter by grabbing the All-Pro safety by his long hair. 
 
 
 
PREDICTIONS
 
 
 
Last Week:                    2-1
 
 
 
Season-to-date:            11-7
 
 
 
Denver at Cleveland
 
 
For the Browns to have a chance this Sunday, their AFC 11th ranked rushing defense must find a way to slow the Broncos number 2 ranked rushing offense. That will not be easy as Mike Shanahan uses his rushing attack to make life easier for QB Jake Plummer. ITH expects the Browns, coming off of their bye to have some success throwing the football. If RB Reuben Droughns can manufacture a decent rushing attack, this could be a very close contest. Cleveland is 5-18 all time versus Denver; not a good statistic for the Browns. The extended weather forecast is for rain and 54 degrees.
 
 
 
Denver   28     Cleveland   24 
 
 
 
Carolina at Cincinnati
 
 
The Panthers and Bengals have the appearance of teams moving in opposite directions. The Panthers are winners of 4 straight, while the Bengals have dropped their last 2. Statistically, these teams match up extremely well with each team having explosive passing attacks. The key to victory could boil down to which offensive line is able to keep its QB standing. The Bengals defense has had its difficulty, particularly against the run. Look for Head Coach John Fox to exploit that advantage in an attempt to keep QB Carson Palmer sidelined.
 
The Bengals need to get their rushing attack going and get RB Rudi Johnson untracked. Cincinnati is 0-2 all time versus Carolina. Playing 2 tough AFC North opponents in a row on the road is a tall order; however the Panthers are playing solid football and are proven road warriors. The extended weather forecast is for light showers and 60 degrees.
 
 
 
Carolina   31     Cincinnati   21
 
 
 
Pittsburgh at Atlanta
 
 
The Steelers are coming off of their rout of the Chiefs at Heinz Field while the Falcons lost at home to the NY Giants. The Falcons are the #1 rush offense in the NFC and the Steelers are #3 against the run in the AFC. If the Falcons can run the football on Sunday, they can give the Steelers problems. The Steelers rank only 13th in the AFC against the pass, while the Falcons passing game has been atrocious, ranking 16th and last in the NFC. Pittsburgh is 11-1-1 all time versus Atlanta.
 
The Steelers march on.
 
 
 
Pittsburgh   23   Atlanta   13
 
 
 
The Baltimore Ravens are idle this week and play at New Orleans on 10/29. Jim Fassel is no longer the Offensive Coordinator of the Ravens. Brian Billick will take over the play calling responsibilities, while his assistant coaches will play a larger role in the game planning process.
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