This week on The X Factor one of our guests was Eric DeCosta, Ravens’ Director of College Scouting. Now before I touch upon an interesting point DeCosta made during my interview with him, I want to take a moment to tell you a little about the man and maybe it will give you a greater appreciation of his eye for talent and his dedication to his craft.
During the few years that I’ve known him, I’ve learned that he is an “outside-of-the-box” thinker. He reads about and studies successful people – even those who have nothing to do with football to help him think outside the box and uncover and discover non-traditional approaches to success in the NFL. I’ve also learned that he is his own worst critic, not afraid to make or admit mistakes and he can be somewhat pessimistic. All of these are character traits of a perfectionist.
He prefers to improve instead of resting on laurels. If he hits on 7 of 8 players in a given draft he’s more interested in why the eighth failed. The successes he credits to his fine scouting staff who all spend countless nights on the road away from their families. The failures he accepts full responsibility for and takes the blame for a miss like David Pittman and then asks himself how he can prevent a similar mistake in the future.
When you think about it, his approach to his job is not unlike that of Ravens’ owner Steve Bisciotti, GM Ozzie Newsome and Head Coach John Harbaugh. Generally speaking they are a young group with plenty of upside. And now that there are signs that they’ve landed the coveted franchise quarterback in Joe Flacco, they could become a very formidable group and they could build a perennial playoff contender, provided they stay together.
With his success and some front office needy franchises around the league, one might think that DeCosta could be lured away since there is no indication that Ozzie will be moving on any time soon. And if that is a concern, then keep this in mind – DeCosta’s devotion to his craft is dwarfed only by his devotion to family and those roots run deep in Baltimore and in the Boston area. The last time I checked, Patriots’ GM Scott Pioli isn’t going anywhere any time soon.
Now having said all that, one of the things DeCosta shared with me on Saturday had to do with projecting wide receivers at the NFL level. Our own Scot Kleinfeld did some research through the first 11 weeks of the season and made a very interesting discovery. Of the top 20 ranked WRs in the league after week 11 for total yards, 40% were first round picks, 25% were second round picks, 15% were third round picks and the balance of 20% were taken from the fourth round on.
On average the Ravens have choses a receiver with the 125th pick of the draft while 80% of the top receivers are taken in the third round or higher.
DeCosta said that he has invested time into studying the successful career path of a wide receiver into the NFL. Running backs and corners he believes are essentially individual positions. If a prospect has the skills at either position he can run for 1,000 yards or he can be a lock down corner regardless of how bad the team is that drafted him. The same can’t be said of receivers.
DeCosta has concluded that receivers who successfully migrate to the professional ranks usually go to teams that have efficient quarterbacks. His analysis shows that the many busts at wide receiver typically suffer from weaker quarterbacking and that the percentage of so-called busts drops measurably when receivers go to teams with strong QB play.
If DeCosta’s analysis is on target and if Joe Flacco continues to improve, so too will the Ravens’ chances of finding a successful receiver through the draft. You can listen to the interview here at about the 57 minute mark of the show.
Ravens Odds & Ends: Willis McGahee has been a spectator for the team’s last two games against the Eagles and Bengals. The optimist might think that the Ravens are saving McGahee for the stretch run and that his then fresh legs will look much quicker when measured against the tired legs of defenders slowed by the wear and tear of a NFL season. The pessimist has McGahee’s bags packed and ready to ship him out of town.
Clearly it’s an interesting story. Ozzie Newsome gave up two third round picks and a seventh to land McGahee not to mention a $40 million contract to bring the former Bill to Baltimore. If the Ravens jettison McGahee after the ’08 season, there is more than $11 million in dead cap money that they will have to account for going forward over the next season or two depending upon the timing of such a release. And that would be an embarrassment of sorts for Newsome.
Even more interesting is that Bisciotti’s money and Newsome’s pride have not stood in the way of Harbaugh’s decision to bench McGahee with the clear intent of sending a message. The bet here is that McGahee will wise up and play hard at some point over the next couple of weeks. He has too much to lose. And while Le’Ron McClain has done well against weak rushing defenses, he’s not the accomplished runner that the Ravens will need when they take on tougher opponents like the Redskins and Steelers over the next couple of weeks. The Ravens will need the running game to keep from being a one-dimensional attack – something that the Steelers’ James Harrison preys upon.
