It absolutely cracks me up how the average fan or average talking head for that matter, can grade a draft less than 24 hours after it is completed. I write the same thing every year yet every year I get emails and texts and instant messages about how the Ravens’ front office blew it on draft day.
Most who follow the game even semi-casually would agree that a draft truly can’t be measured until two to three years down the road. Grading a 2009 draft class today is like planting apples seeds and deeming the fruit delicious before the tree takes root.
It’s silly to criticize Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta for a draft class assembled a little over 48 hours ago? Did any of you study film on the 200 prospects that comprised their draft board? Did any of you spend 200 nights per year on the road, travel from campus to campus and watch college players practice and/or play? Anyone speak to collegiate head coaches and positional coaches about those players? Anyone interview the parents to gauge a candidate’s character and upbringing? Anyone sit down with the Ravens coaching staff – a staff that has spent countless hours evaluating the team’s talent to determine the proper missing pieces? Anyone know how Cam Cameron might tweak his offense when he doesn’t have to hold in his tight end and or his tailback to block during passing downs?
Let’s face it, young athletes mature at different paces and some peak earlier than others. Some have work ethics that allow them to improve at a faster rate than others. Freed from the college classroom, they can devote their studies to the NFL classroom and improve their understanding of plays, schemes and tendencies. This might improve the reaction times of athletes so they don’t have to think as much because their recognition skills are sharper due to dedication off the field. And perhaps all of this enables a player to perform better as a pro player than they did as a collegiate player – think Tom Brady.
Conversely, some that were once dominant as college players fall back to the pack. Perhaps they were part of a system that ensured their success and outside of that system their effectiveness diminishes. Maybe the talent catches up to them, their effectiveness tumbles as does their confidence and promising futures are shattered – think Tim Couch.
On draft day, it’s up to Newsome and DeCosta to consider the team’s roster, goals and objectives, coaching staff wishes, desires and teaching abilities, team direction, strengths and weaknesses, prospects’ mental and physical upsides and then project how hundreds of athletes might fit in and complement the current personnel on their football team.
Isn’t it ridiculous to critique their decisions now?
Ah but they didn’t get that needed wide receiver you say.
Don’t you think they know they need a receiver? Don’t you think they tried? If Anquan Boldin’s contract demands weren’t so unrealistically bloated, he might be a Raven today. But why reach? Why reach and hand out too much money and why reach and take a lesser player just because it’s a need?
Wouldn’t it make more sense to become even stronger as a team than to risk it on need and not improve at all?
Can you really fault the team for taking Michael Oher?
What about Paul Kruger, a player projected by some as a first round pick?
Maybe Lardarius Webb is a significantly better player than any WR that was available in the third round. Maybe the Ravens know just a little more about the off season progress of Demetrius Williams and Marcus Smith and they’ve concluded that either is a better choice than the players they may have selected with the Webb pick.
Who is more qualified than Newsome and DeCosta to make that call, some random analyst from a mock draft website?
Back in 2006 NFL Countdown among other things had this to say about the Ravens 2006 NFL Draft class which they rated a B-minus:
“With their third round pick the Ravens chose #2 rated sleeper in the entire draft, cornerback David Pittman of Northwestern St. With starter Will Demps leaving as a free agent, safety was one of the teams greatest areas of need yet they waited until the fifth round to address it. Landry, whose younger brother LaRon of L.S.U. will be one of the top senior safety prospects in 2007, is just not the answer that they needed at the position and leaves the starting spot opposite Ed Reed a major question mark at this point.”
In 2006 AskTheCommish.com said the Arizona Cardinals walked away from Radio City Music Hall with the league’s best draft.
“Leinart was our top rated QB and should thrive with those WRs in Arizona and with Dennis Green coaching him up. He slid too far. Deuce Lutui is really more of an OG than an OT, so he didn’t fit the bigger need along the OL, but he’ll help somewhere. TE Leonard Pope was a steal where Arizona drafted him. DT Gabe Watson has a ton of potential and is really a boom or bust pick. If motivated, he could be one of the better DTs to come out of this draft. Lewis, a DT out of Virginia Tech also flew under the radar, but could become a real nice find for the Cards.”
Leinart was a wasted pick with wasted money to boot; Lutui is a starter at guard; Pope has 48 catches for 476 yards over three seasons; Watson is a back up and Lewis has not only flown under the radar but off the roster too.
Sporting News gave the Dolphins an A+ after their 2007 draft:
“The first three picks–WR Ted Ginn Jr., QB John Beck and C Samson Satele–should all become starters quickly. The smart, mature Beck could be ready by opening day. RB Lorenzo Booker will help immediately as a third-down back.”
Ginn is coming on, Beck is a third string QB who may not make the team in ’09 now that the Dolphins selected WVU QB Pat White in the second round of this year’s draft, and second round pick Satele played two seasons in Miami and then was shipped to Oakland for a sixth round pick. Nice A+ there Sporting News!
Many things affect how a successful college player performs in the NFL. What was the level of collegiate competition like? Can they improve physically or have they reached their physical peaks? How coachable are they and how good are the coaches that acquire them? How good is the acquiring team and are the skill sets a match for that team? How strong is their ambition to succeed, to work hard and to compete?
Who among these supposed draft graders knows the answers to such questions? Probably none!
We all know the draft is an inexact science. So before you go busting Ozzie & Co. about their ’09 draft because it lacks superficial sizzle, relax, sit back and wait to see how it plays out.
