There’s still more than a week left in January and we are well over 5 weeks removed from free agency. But for the Ravens, the ’09 season is finished and their collective focus is now set upon ways to improve in 2010. Without a doubt changes are in store.
Each season NFL rosters experience a rather significant amount of turnover, particularly in the era of the salary cap. But this offseason promises to be an interesting one because GM’s throughout the league will embark upon waters uncharted since the origins of the cap in 1994 when it was set at $34.6 million. In 2009 the cap was approximately $127 million.
How teams navigate an uncapped season remains to be seen. With fewer free agents available, rosters could be more stable. But then again, if GM’s league-wide choose to dump players not performing to the level of their salaries, it could trigger a wave of roster movement not before seen.
Time will tell…
Until such time, I thought I’d take a look at the Ravens 53 man roster and some players on injured reserve and forecast where I think these players will be when the team reports to training camp at the end of July.
|
Player
|
Position
|
Chance of Return (%)
|
Comments/Forecast
|
|
Joe Flacco
|
QB
|
100%
|
Starter for foreseeable future
|
|
Troy Smith
|
QB
|
50%
|
Could be signed by another club as a restricted FA or moved in a draft day trade
|
|
John Beck
|
QB
|
75%
|
Should be comfortable in Baltimore with Cam Cameron and could be a prototypical career back-up in the mold of Todd Collins.
|
|
Ray Rice
|
RB
|
100%
|
Pro Bowler is the team’s best playmaker
|
|
Willis McGahee
|
RB
|
25%
|
His $3.6 million salary in 2010 is far too high for a back-up; Team will try to trade McGahee or ask him to take a pay cut; if not he’ll be released.
|
|
Jalen Parmele
|
RB
|
90%
|
Inexpensive player with upside and a solid special teams player.
|
|
Le’Ron McClain
|
FB
|
90%
|
A restricted free agent who will likely receive a second round tender; Ravens could let him walk if another team is willing to overpay
|
|
Derrick Mason
|
WR
|
50%
|
Mason has hinted at retirement but we’ve seen that movie before; 75% chance Mason plays but there’s a good chance he could end up in Tennessee.
|
|
Mark Clayton
|
WR
|
75%
|
Limited marketability will drive down his price and drive up the likelihood of a return; chance of return increases if Mason leaves.
|
|
Demetrius Williams
|
WR
|
10%
|
Only stays if all other efforts to improve corps fail.
|
|
Kelley Washington
|
WR
|
50%
|
Team wants him back but Washington will explore options.
|
|
David Tyree
|
WR
|
25%
|
No need to hurry to re-sign Tyree; he could stay as a special teamer if the Ravens pass on signing more expensive Ayanbadejo.
|
|
Justin Harper
|
WR
|
50%
|
Has some practice squad eligibility
|
|
Todd Heap
|
TE
|
50%
|
Heap has a $4 million salary and his productivity doesn’t justify that; he’ll be asked to take a pay cut to stay.
|
|
LJ Smith
|
TE
|
0%
|
Smith earned $750,000 per catch in 2009; will Harbaugh be silly enough to bring this china doll back again?
|
|
Edgar Jones
|
TE
|
50%
|
Inexpensive special teams player remembered more in ’09 for penalties than anything else.
|
|
Jared Gaither
|
T
|
90%
|
Gaither is a restricted free agent and could be lured away but a team in dire need of a left tackle; Ravens may tag him with first and third tender.
|
|
Michael Oher
|
T
|
100%
|
Potentially a career Raven in the mold of Jon Ogden
|
|
Oniel Cousins
|
T
|
100%
|
Developing project with upside; could be an inexpensive RT in the future if Gaither leaves and Oher moves to LT
|
|
Tony Moll
|
T
|
25%
|
Probably a fall back player for depth if other options don’t work out; remember Adam Terry?
|
|
Ben Grubbs
|
G
|
100%
|
Starter
|
|
Marshal Yanda
|
G
|
100%
|
Starter
|
|
Chris Chester
|
G/C
|
90%
|
Slight chance another team could sign him to restricted offer
|
|
David Hale
|
G/C
|
50%
|
Could be edged out for roster spot
|
|
Matt Birk
|
C
|
100%
|
Starter
|
|
Kelly Gregg
|
DT
|
75%
|
Came on strong late in ’09; reasonable $3 million salary makes return likely for productive team player
|
|
Haloti Ngata
|
DT
|
100%
|
Final year of rookie contract; extension desired by club and player
|
|
Kelly Talavou
|
DT
|
50%
|
Reserve with limited options
|
|
Justin Bannan
|
DT
|
50%
|
Productive reserve who can start; slipped a bit in ’09; might get a more lucrative offer elsewhere.
|
|
Dwan Edwards
|
DE
|
50%
|
Had a career year in ’09; team player who always hustles; may price himself out of team’s plans
|
|
Trevor Pryce
|
DE
|
25%
|
Pryce’s snaps diminished and he lost his starting job to Edwards; team may bring Pryce back if he accepts a significantly reduces salary; set to earn $4.5 million in ’10.
|
|
Paul Kruger
|
DE/OLB
|
100%
|
Will look to develop pass rushing moves and strength in offseason
|
|
Antwan Barnes
|
DE/OLB
|
75%
|
Not an expensive player to keep in the fold but Barnes is considered to be an underachiever and could be moved.
|
|
Jarret Johnson
|
DE/OLB
|
100%
|
A coach’s favorite, deservedly so
|
|
Terrell Suggs
|
DE/OLB
|
100%
|
Has verbally committed to team to be active in offseason conditioning program.
|
|
Jameel McClain
|
LB
|
50%
|
Productivity fell off after rookie season; roster spot could be threatened
|
|
Taveres Gooden
|
LB
|
90%
|
Potential still attracts coach’s attention but that song & dance is wearing thin; injury concerns linger (concussions)
|
|
Prescott Burgess
|
LB
|
50%
|
Could lose roster spot to more deserving player
|
|
Dannell Ellerbe
|
LB
|
100%
|
Another diamond in the rough uncovered by Ozzie’s scouts
|
|
Ray Lewis
|
LB
|
100%
|
Face of franchise
|
|
Domonique Foxworth
|
CB
|
100%
|
Came on strong late save the Divisional Playoff Game; not as expensive as most think
|
|
Chris Carr
|
CB
|
100%
|
Looked like a bust early; finished like a free agent bargain
|
|
Frank Walker
|
CB
|
50%
|
Could lose spot to more youthful player; his ’09 value underrated by fans
|
|
Carey Williams
|
CB
|
75%
|
Speedster taken from Tennessee’s practice squad in ’09 has upside
|
|
Corey Ivy
|
CB
|
5%
|
Late season addition cut during camp; expect the same if he’s even invited to ’10 camp
|
|
Dawan Landry
|
S
|
90%
|
Slow start, strong finish
|
|
Tom Zbikowski
|
S
|
100%
|
Strong special teamer; solid when replacing Reed
|
|
Ed Reed
|
S
|
80%
|
Retirement concerns linger
|
|
Marcus Paschal
|
CB/S
|
10%
|
Perhaps a practice squad player in ’10
|
|
Keith Fitzhugh
|
S
|
0%
|
See above
|
|
Sam Koch
|
P
|
100%
|
One of the game’s best situational punters
|
|
Billy Cundiff
|
K
|
50%
|
There is already talk of Matt Stover returning; if Stover is in Westminster in July, Cundiff’s chances drop significantly
|
|
Matt Katula
|
LS
|
60%
|
Ravens will invite competition for the once reliable Katula.
|
There are a few players not listed among the players on the final 53 man roster who did appear on the 53 man roster during the 2009-10 season or figure to attract serious attention in ’10. Those players are shown with the likelihood of their return.
|
Player
|
Position
|
Chance of Return (%)
|
Comments/Forecast
|
|
Brendon Ayanbadejo
|
LB/ST
|
80%
|
Long-shot to be a cap casualty
|
|
Brandon McKinney
|
DT
|
80%
|
Under team friendly contract
|
|
K.J. Gerard
|
CB/S
|
50%
|
Needs to bulk up
|
|
Matt Lawrence
|
RB
|
50%
|
Solid special teams player; chance increase a little if McGahee moves on and the team doesn’t pick up a RB in draft or free agency
|
|
Jason Phillips
|
LB
|
75%
|
2009 5th round pick is recovering from knee surgery; should be ready to go by OTA’s
|
|
Samari Rolle
|
CB
|
5%
|
Retirement likely
|
|
Quinn Sypniewski
|
TE
|
25%
|
If he is able to recover from a devastating knee injury and continue his career, chances increase; unfortunately his career is in doubt.
|
|
Fabian Washington
|
CB
|
50%
|
Will be welcomed back at the right price
|
|
Lardarius Webb
|
CB/S
|
100%
|
Probably headed to PUP to start the season unless he can recover rapidly from knee surgery
|
|
Haruki Nakamura
|
S
|
100%
|
Solid special teamer and developing safety with good ball instincts. Improved tackling could increase his playing time.
|
Follow us on Twitter @ Ravens_247
