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SUPER BOWL XLIV: The 44th AFC/NFC World Championship Game

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NFC Champion New Orleans Saints vs. AFC Champion Colts


 

Line: Colts favored by 5 points, Over/Under 57


 

The NFL/NFC have won 22 of the 43 Super Bowls….the AFC has won 5 of the last six….this is the tenth game to played in the Miami, South Florida area, 5 games were played at the Orange Bowl, this is the fifth being played at what was first known as Joe Robbie Stadium, now Sun Life Stadium….the regular season series between these teams dates back to 1967, the Baltimore Colts never lost to the Saints, compiling a 3-0 record, including a 14-10 win in 1973, the Colts built a 14-0 lead but had to hold off a late Archie Manning  rally to win at Memorial Stadium, although he completed just 7 passes and threw 4 interceptions, Colt rookie and Louisiana native Bert Jones gained his first career win as  a starting pro quarterback that day…the complete regular season series is tied at 5-5, the Colts have won the last 2 games between the teams easily, winning 55-21 in 2003 and 41-10 opening night in 2007….


 

This will be the first Super Bowl in which both teams have rookie punters, Thomas Morstead of the Saints and Pat McAfee of the Colts…take this for what it is, but these past 2 weeks remind me of the lead up to Super Bowl XV when the Raiders beat the Eagles 27-10, the Raiders were seemingly relaxed before the game and you heard very little from them, they still had several players on the roster from their Super Bowl XI winning team, while Dick Vermeil’s Eagles just seemed happy to make it to the Super Bowl and were treating it more as an event than just another football game….


 

Saints, offense, rushing sixth, passing 4th defense, vs. run 21st, vs. pass 26th    


 

Truth be told Saints owner Tom Benson was planning to move the Saints to his hometown of San Antonio because of the lack of revenue coming from the Superdome,  but after the devastation of hurricane Katrina he was forced politically by the league to stay, it will be years before the complete truth of that story will be told….with all the NFL labor talk happening lately, the NFLPA should be rooting against the Saints, head coach Sean Payton is the first “scab” to be a head coach in the NFL, he was the third string quarterback for the Chicago Bears in the three games played by replacement players during the 1987 players strike, he completed 8 of 23 for 79 yards, 0 touchdowns, and one interception, he was released when the regular players came back….Saints are 4-6 in post season games….Drew Brees will attempt to be the third quarterback from Purdue University to win a Super Bowl, Len Dawson and Bob Griese are the other two…


 

Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. will come at the Colts with his running game early and will rotate his backs, Pierre Thomas will be first out of the gate, then Mike Bell, Bell rushed for 136 yards and 2 scores the last time he faced the Colts as a Bronco in 2006…, Saints ran for 136 yards a game, this a key match up, the Colts held the Ravens and Jets to 86.5 yards a game rushing in the playoffs…the Saints feel that they can beat Colt defensive tackles Dan Muir, Eric Foster, and Antoine Johnson with their Pro Bowl interior offensive lineman Jonathan Goodwin, Jahri Evans, and Jon Stinchcomb….the key for the Saints plan is to force Colt linebackers Gary Brackett and Clint Session into having to stop the run, opening up the middle for TE’s Jeremy Shockey and Dave Thomas off of play action, they combined for 83 receptions in 2009….Session is a great cover linebacker, Brees then will try and get Reggie Bush into man coverage with linebacker Philip Wheeler a great tackler but not the best cover man, Bush has six receptions and one score in the playoffs, if they get that, Bush can be a factor, if not he may disappear from the game….


 

The Saints feel they can throw downfield on anyone and rightfully so, their key is never allowing a defense to key on any one receiver. Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, future Pro Bowler Robert Meachem, and Lance Moore are all viable options for Brees, they have combined for twenty one playoff receptions…. the Saints allowed  just one sack this playoff season but with or without Dwight Freeney the Colts pass rushing speed will present problems for the Saint tackles, especially LT Jerome Bushrod….the Colts secondary covers well, even without Bob Sanders, but Brees will go after the rookie cornerbacks Jerraud Powers who may not play with an ankle injury or Jacob Lacey, Mark Sanchez was able to get the ball downfield early on them in the AFC championship, Powers and Lacey will be the focus of the downfield Saints passing game…


 

Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will have to duplicate the pressure they put on Kurt Warner and Brett Favre, they had just one sack against them but had numerous quarterback hurries and hits that disrupted their passing games to a degree…Williams’ defenses have never disguised their defenses well, making pre snap reads easy for savvy quarterbacks, their key is being able to win their individual physical battles….defensive end Will Smith who had thirteen regular season sacks, beating Colts tackle Charlie Johnson is a must for the Saints to have any chance at stopping or slowing Peyton Manning and his receivers, the Saint secondary only plays well when they get pressure on the quarterback, they are average in coverage as are the Saint linebackers, Jonathan Vilma, Scott Fujita, and Scott Shanle….Saints had 39 takeaways, second in the NFL to the Packer’s 40, for the Saints to win they will have to force turnovers, in this case it is not a cliché…. Darren Sharper led the NFL with nine interceptions, and they had three more in their playoff games….Saints linebacker coach Joe Vitt is a Baltimore native, former Baltimore Colt assistant coach, and Towson State grad….


 

Colts, offense rushing 32nd, passing 2nd, defense vs. run 24th, vs. pass 14th


 

Colts are 2-1 in Super Bowls….all of their previous Super Bowls have been played in Miami….they are the only franchise in the NFL to represent both the NFL/NFC and the AFL/AFC in the Super Bowl… with a victory head coach Jim Caldwell will join Don McCafferty, 1970 Colts and George Seifert, 1989 49’ers, as the only rookie head coaches to win a Super Bowl….talk about a stat line, Manning in his last 2 games against the Saints , easy wins in 2003 and 2007, completed 38 of 55 passes for 602 yards, nine touchdowns and no interceptions….Manning has one interception in his last 152 pass attempts and threw for 5 scores with the one interception in the playoff wins against the Ravens and Jets….the Colts were last in the NFL in rushing in 2009 but Joseph Addai gained 80 yards on 16 attempts against the 8th ranked Jet run defense in the AFC championship game….Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie combined for 107 receptions in 2009, they have collected another 27 for three touchdowns in the playoffs….the Colts will not change their basic game plan for the Saints….


 

As everyone tries to do the Saints will blitz from different sides but the key will be the superior blocking skills of Joseph Addai knowing where the blitz will be coming from and Manning moving effectively in the pocket so he can go to his second , third, and sometimes 4th read if he needs to…. the Colts do not have to establish an effective run game to win but will try with their staple stretch play with Addai….Manning will go after Saints cornerback Jabari Greer early, he regularly plays on the left, which should put him on Reggie Wayne… Manning will want to force the Saints to move a safety over the top to open the slots for Garcon and Collie….Saints could open the game with just 2 linebackers and play nickel with Randall Gay, if they do watch for rookie running back Donald Brown to catch some early screen passes….no matter who covers TE Dallas Clark, Manning will try and find him, both the Ravens and Jets tried several coverage schemes against him and he still caught 11 passes in the playoffs against better linebackers and safeties then the Saints have….


 

Dwight Freeney is hurt but will try and play but will not be a factor….Colts will move Robert Mathis to Freeney’s side and Raheem Brock will play on Mathis’ regular side….Saints allowed 26 sacks, Colts recorded 34 in 2009….Colts do not want linebacker Philip Wheeler in man coverage,  to do that they must stop the run with their front four, this could be the key to stopping the Saint game plan….safeties Antoine Bethea and Melvin Bullitt have had great seasons, this will be their biggest test of the season, Brees by far is the best quarterback they have seen in 2009….cornerback Marlin Jackson will shadow Colston, if he can cover effectively with no safety help the Colts will be able to hold their own against Brees…


 

For the trivia buffs out there, Colts are 2-0 wearing their white jerseys in Super Bowls, and 0-1 when wearing the blue jerseys, they will be in their classic blue Sunday….in both Colt victories in Super Bowls they missed the extra point after their first touchdown….


 

Prediction


 

The entire world outside of the state the Colts moved to in 1984 is rooting for the Saints. This has the same feel as Super Bowl XXXV …. And we should see the same result….


 

The Colts will be able to move the ball with ease against an average Saints secondary and weak covering linebacker corps. Peyton Manning will be able to read anything Gregg Williams throws at him, his line is one of the best to ever play, they are close to the 1976 Raiders. Manning has made viable NFL stars out of rookie wide receiver Austin Collie and Mount Union’s Pierre Garcon; the Saints just do not have the talent to cover them, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and the screens to Joseph Addai and Donald Brown.


 

The Saints will be able to run early in the game but my thinking is they will have to give up on that by the third period because they will have to throw to keep pace with Manning. Brees will throw for a couple of scores but will not be able to match the future Hall of Famer.


 

Tuesday was Groundhog Day but today the weasels (Irsay family) will celebrate. The Colts franchise wins its third Super Bowl going away…


 

Colts 38, Saints 21 

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