The Ravens earned a long-sought playoff bye and home game by beating the Bengals in a game that was just a little closer than the final score indicated. Many football pundits had the Bengals winning this game, thus banishing the Ravens to another 5th seed road tour to the Super Bowl. But the Ravens were having none of that. It was a close, well-played win over a competent opponent.
Some have called football a game of inches. It was never better illustrated than the win over the Cincinnati Bengals last Sunday. A Bengals field goal attempt that missed……just right. Ravens ball at the 26. A Cincinnati punt that would have put the ball in play for the Ravens inside their 1 yard line – except for an errant Bengals elbow on the goal line……… Touchback, Ravens 1st and 10 on the 20. A generous spot of the ball by the officials on a Cedric Benson line plunge gave the Bengals a first down. A review of the spot because of an alert John Harbaugh challenge flag moved the ball back 2 yards to make it……Bengals 4th and 1. Cincinnati punt. With 7:26 remaining in the 4th quarter and the Bengals driving into Ravens territory, Terrell Suggs strips the ball from TE Jermaine Gresham and Bernard Pollard recovers it…………Ravens ball. Three plays later, Vonta Leach flattens Bengals LB Ray Maualuga and springs Ray Rice loose into the Bengals secondary…….Rice runs for a 51 yard touchdown.
Small things. Big plays. Huge results.
STUDS
v Ray Rice: Runs of 70 and 51 yards cemented this Ravens win. 24 carries for 191 yards. AFC Offensive Player of the Week – again. For the 2011 regular season Ray’s numbers are: 1,364 yards rushing, 704 yards receiving. 15 touchdowns. Hands down the Ravens MVP for 2011.
v The Offensive Line: Along with the Leach pancake block mentioned earlier, Marshall Yanda’s block on Bengals DT Domata Peko that sprung Ray Rice on his 70 yard scamper was a thing of beauty. While they were responsible for a couple of penalties, tackles Bryant McKinney and Michael Oher played well and kept the Bengals pass rushers off Joe Flacco.
v Joe Flacco was the epitome of the efficient NFL game manager, passing for 130 yards, one touchdown, and a quarterback rating of 112. It is no coincidence that Ray Rice got 24 touches in this game, either.
NOTES FROM THE RAVENS & AROUND THE LEAGUE
v Missing in Action: Lee Evans. When the trade was made with the Bills we all thought it was a steal on the part of the Ravens. Now it looks like we gave the Bills a 4th round pick. Can we all agree that the trade for the former Buffalo wide out has been a wipe out?
v Polians Gone: In a week full of coaching terminations, Colts owner Jimmy Irsay made the most stunning move, not by firing head coach Jim Caldwell, but purging his front office of VP Bill Polian and his incompetent GM son Chris Polian. I only note this because Ravens fans remember the elder Polian’s arrogance and distain for the Ravens, the Baltimore Colts, their history, and Baltimore football fans in general. Couldn’t happen to a nicer family.
v Rats: The San Diego Chargers retained Norv Turner as head coach. So much for the chance Norv comes east to become the Ravens offensive coordinator. Bad news for those of us who think Joe Flacco has hit the ceiling with Cam Cameron. The fan base has lost both faith and patience in Cameron’s game planning and play calling. What now?
v Bye Bye: We’ve been talking for weeks how important it was for the Ravens to get a high seed for a 1st round bye and a home playoff game. The players and coaches wanted it. Our collective fan psyche needed it. But a high seed is also critical from a statistical perspective. A recent article in Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football and math, makes the telling point that seeding is critically important, especially for the top two teams in each conference. The article states that while home-field advantage is beneficial, it’s the first-round bye which, for all intents and purposes, is an automatic win that essentially doubles a team’s chances of making it to the Super Bowl. Without going into how the numbers were calculated, here are the S.B. probabilities for each seed:
No. 1, 36 percent;
No. 2, 29 percent;
No. 3, 11 percent;
No. 4, 10 percent;
No. 5, 7 percent;
No. 6, 6 percent.
This means that the No. 1 seed has about six times the chance of a wild-card team to make it to the Super Bowl. The No. 2 seed has nearly five times the chance. These are enormous differences. If the Ravens had lost on Sunday and sank to a 5th seed, it would cut their chance of making the Super Bowl by over a factor of four, from 29 percent to 7 percent. No wonder it’s so hard for a Wild Card team to make it to Indianapolis in February.
v My Daughter Can Do Your Job: I had the opportunity Tuesday to watch Terrell Suggs duke it out with talking head Skip Bayless on the Tuesday edition of ESPN’s First Take. As soon as studio host Donna Jacobson announced that T-Sizzle was coming on after a commercial break, I dropped everything to watch the verbal barrage. And was it worth it!
Suggs came out blazing, telling Bayless that Tim Tebow was “your boy” and stating that Tom Brady was “God’s nephew” (well, we all know he’s untouchable!). Bayless tried to goad Suggs into making predictions but Sizzle correctly refused to take the bait. Skip Bayless is one of the more worthless heads on television. He’s there for nothing more than to stir up controversy and start arguments that devolve into shouting matches. He knows nothing, and T-Sizzle correctly analyzed the job requirements as something his 4 year old daughter could do, and told Bayless so.
v R&R: After Thursday, the Ravens’ players are off for the remainder of the week and a well-earned rest. Let the veterans rest and the injured heal. Let’s get ready for the Texans on January 15th!
HAPPY FESTIVUS!
Note: All stats courtesy of NFL.com, additional content from the Baltimore Sun, Indianapolis Star, ProFootballTalk.com, and of course, Advanced NFL Stats.com.
