Perception v. Reality
Reality: Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett won AFC Offensive Player of the Year in back-to-back weeks.
Perception: In Week 10, Forsett rushed 20 times for 112 yards and two touchdowns against the Titans. The Ravens were off in Week 11, and then in Week 12 Forsett might have played his best career game, running 22 times for 182 yards and two touchdowns.
Has Forsett become one of the best offensive players in the NFL? He is 3rd among NFL rushers with 903 yards this year, but he leagues the NFL in yards per attempt with 5.8.
According to ESPN, Le’Veon Bell and Forsett are the only two players with more than 150 yards between the tackles in a single game this season. Fox Sports Dan Schneier says Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak and Forsett have helped the Ravens have the most consistent running game in the NFL. ProFootballTalk.com’s Mike Florio says Forsett is the leader for Comeback Player of the Year. NFL.com’s Elliot Harrison said Forsett is one of three players who has had 65 yards from scrimmage in every game this season.
The journeyman running back who nearly retired this offseason has become a huge part of the Ravens offense this year. The offensive line has done a nice job as well opening the holes for the running game.
Reality: For the first time in NFL history, all four teams in the same division are at least 3 games over .500 in the same season.
Perception: Because of a tie earlier this season, the Bengals hold the slight edge in the AFC North with a 7-3-1 record. The Ravens, Steelers, and Browns are all 7-4, but the Ravens hold the overall tie-break, with the Steelers holding the tiebreaker over Cleveland.
Usually, a team that wins 10 games would be playoff bound, but in the AFC and specifically in the AFC North this year, it might actually take 11 wins to get there.
Reality: WJZ’s Mark Viviano tweeted a few weeks ago that coming into the season, West Coast teams are just 43-83 playing in the Eastern Time zone over the past decade.
Perception: With the Chargers flying all the way from San Diego this weekend, it’s definitely an advantage for the Ravens that this game is in Baltimore. Since the 2009 season, the Chargers are 10-9 (including a win earlier this season in Buffalo) when playing at 1pm on the East Coast. That is the start time of Sunday’s game.
This is a big game for both teams this weekend, with the loser getting the short stick when it comes to the AFC Playoff race.
Reality: The Ravens have a slight edge in remaining schedule of the AFC playoff contenders.
Perception: This Sunday is Week 13 and the Ravens have the most crucial game:
- Chargers at Ravens, Browns at Bills, Saints at Steelers, Bengals at Bucs, Chiefs at Broncos
- In Week 14: Steelers at Bengals, Ravens at Dolphins, Colts at Browns, Chiefs at Cardinals, Patriots at Chargers.
- In Week 15: Steelers at Falcons, Raiders at Chiefs, Jaguars at Ravens, Bengals at Browns, Broncos at Chargers.
- In Week 16: Chargers at 49ers, Ravens at Texans, Browns at Panthers, Chiefs at Steelers, Broncos at Bengals.
- In Week 17: Browns at Ravens, Chargers at Chiefs, Bengals at Steelers.
If the Ravens can pull out the win in Week 13 and in Week 14 in Miami, I think they will gain an edge in the AFC Playoff race. A loss by the Chargers and Dolphins will hurt both of them. Plus, I think the Browns and Chiefs eliminate themselves from playoff contention over the next few weeks with their tough schedules.
With a win over San Diego, the Ravens tie last season’s win total. Not only that, but they put themselves in great position in the AFC with another important game in Miami next week and then a cupcake game against the Jaguars. The Ravens would be 10-4 heading into Week 16 with the Texans and Browns left.
I know fans commented on this very blog just two weeks ago saying the exact opposite, but it is very possible the Baltimore Ravens could go 12-4 and grab the #3 seed in the AFC Playoff picture.
