A week ago today, we were all feeling pretty good about the Ravens playoff chances. The Chargers had just barely escaped with a win against the Rams at home and the Ravens had just beaten the Saints in the Superdome by 7 points — and it really wasn’t even that close.
Upcoming was a home game against the then 7-4 Chargers. The Chargers had only played in Baltimore twice, but were winless in those games. West coast teams have a tough time coming all the way to the East coast for 1PM games. There were plenty of reasons to be confident that the Ravens would come away with a ‘W’.
Then, in the 4th quarter, despite the defense looking like a wet paper bag – no – like a paper bag dissolving in hydrochloric acid, the Ravens still had a win probability of 82% after making the decision to kick a field goal with just over 2:00 to go in the game to go up by 6 (they’d have a better chance if they went for it on 4th, but that’s a whole other story) according to the Chief Analyst of numberFire, Keith Goldner.
We all know what happened after that, but what did it do to the Ravens’ playoff chances?
After the loss, the Ravens now sit right in the middle of the logjam of teams at 7-5 with a playoff probability of 32.8%. Here’s how Baltimore’s playoff chances stack up compared to the rest of the Wild Card contenders according to numberFire’s projections.
- Kansas City Chiefs – 47.20%
- San Diego Chargers – 45.50%
- Miami Dolphins – 38.70%
- Baltimore Ravens – 32.80%
- Pittsburgh Steelers – 31.20%
- Buffalo Bills – 17.20%
- Cleveland Browns – 12.70%
These projections consider every team’s schedule. Let’s take a look at all of those.
- Kansas City Chiefs – @ARI, OAK, @PIT, SD
- San Diego Chargers – NE, DEN, @SF, @KC
- Miami Dolphins – BAL, @NE, MIN, NYJ
- Baltimore Ravens – @MIA, JAX, @HOU, CLE
- Pittsburgh Steelers – @CIN, @ATL, KC, CIN
- Buffalo Bills – @DEN, GB, @OAK, @NE
- Cleveland Browns – IND, CIN, @CAR, @BAL
With how tough the Bills’ schedule looks, it’s easy to see why their playoff probability is so low despite playing pretty well recently. I fully expect them to lose 3 of 4. NumberFire’s projections seem to agree with most people’s thought that the Browns just aren’t as good as their record indicates. The projections have them finishing the season with less than 9 wins.
That leaves the Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins, Ravens, and Steelers competing for the 2 Wild Card spots.
The Chargers have a leg up on everyone with an 8-4 record, but they also have the toughest schedule by far. The Dolphins have a couple of tough games the next two weeks, but they end the season against two bad teams at home. The Ravens have the easiest schedule of the group, but will lose on all conference tie-breakers since they are 4-0 against NFC teams, leaving them with at best a 7-5 record against the AFC. The Steelers are also looking at a tough schedule with all 4 of their next opponents being playoff contenders (yeah, I know that includes Atlanta, but they have lost 2 of 2 at home to NFC South opponents).
In order for the Ravens to have a legitimate chance at making the playoffs, they NEED a win on Sunday, or they will surely face elimination. Just how important is a win? Here are all five of the 7-5 teams’ playoff chances adjusted by a Ravens’ win on Sunday based on numberFire’s projections.
- Baltimore Ravens – 54.66%
- Kansas City Chiefs – 47.06%
- Pittsburgh Steelers – 30.16%
- Buffalo Bills – 17.58%
- Miami Dolphins – 14.54%
- Cleveland Browns – 13.90%
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