Despite how thrilling Saturday’s win at Pittsburgh was, the Ravens need to quickly shift their focus to the New England Patriots.
This game is likely to produce the AFC representative in Super Bowl XLIX.
Here are five things to look for that might determine its outcome.
Composure
Last week, one of the things that struck me was how composed the Ravens were despite playing in such an intensely competitive game. When Jason Worilds punched Crockett Gillmore, Gillmore, though a rookie, didn’t retaliate. The Ravens were credited with 15 valuable yards after that incident.
In total, the Steelers committed eight penalties for 114 yards. Baltimore committed just two penalties for 14 yards. Further, the Ravens were plus-2 in the turnover battle.
The Patriots aren’t the most physical team, but mentally, they’re among the best. Baltimore will need to remain composed for 60 minutes on Saturday if they want to win.
Coaching
If you’ve watched and studied the NFL over the last 20 years, you know how great of a coach Bill Belichick is. He’s won three Super Bowls and is one postseason win away from tying Tom Landry for the most all-time (20).
John Harbaugh, Belichick’s good friend, is quickly filling out his application to the Hall of Fame as well. Of all head coaches that have coached in at least 10 playoff games, Harbaugh trails only Vince Lombardi (90.0) and Tom Flores (72.7) in winning percentage (71.4).
Both coaches have faith in their teams and take gambles that at times look foolish. But at the end of the day, you can’t argue with their track records.
This game will be about the coaches as much, if not more than it is about the players.
Rob Gronkowski
In January 2012, when the Patriots beat the Ravens, 23-20, Rob Gronkowski made five receptions for 87 yards. However in the third quarter, after a hit and tackle from safety Bernard Pollard, Gronkowski severely injured his left ankle. The next year, when the two teams met in the exact same situation, Gronkowski didn’t play.
Now without Wes Welker, Randy Moss, Logan Mankins, or a significant running game, Gronkowski is the lone remaining member of a once-vaunted Tom Brady supporting cast.
This season, Gronkowski was one of two players in the entire league to be a unanimous AP First-Team All-Pro selection (JJ Watt). Nine of his 12 touchdowns came while the Patriots were in the red zone. Conversely, the Ravens boast the 2nd-best red zone defense in the NFL.
Gronkowski is without question the focal point of New England’s offense. How will Dean Pees, New England’s former defensive coordinator, scheme against him? Look for Will Hill, Matt Elam, Daryl Smith and C.J. Mosley to execute some sort of combination coverage against the star tight end.
Brady vs. Baltimore’s pass rush
The impetus for current rules protecting quarterbacks was the season-ending knee injury Tom Brady sustained at the very beginning of the 2008 season. Since then, it seems like he (and other high-profile quarterbacks) get the benefit of the doubt when they’re hit.
Defenders are coached on this subject and know what the strike zone is, but at the same time, officials need to account for physics. When a 270 pound man is running full-speed at the quarterback, they can’t stop on a dime. What makes it worse is the petulant production quarterbacks put on for referees, insisting on a personal foul against the defense, knowing full-well the hit wasn’t that bad.
Baltimore has only sacked Brady four times in their three playoff games against him. Expect that number to go up this weekend, given their success rushing the passer over the last 18 weeks.
Baltimore’s offensive line
Joe Flacco has proven to all objective viewers that he is a great postseason quarterback. Among running backs that carried the ball at least 100 times this season, Justin Forsett gained more yards per carry than any of them (5.4).
Translation: Baltimore’s offensive line has excellent potential. This season they allowed the 2nd-fewest sacks in the NFL (1.2 per game) and helped Forsett and Co. gain 121.6 yards per game on the ground–a difference of 38.6 yards per game from 2013. That’s the 2nd-best improvement in the league.
Last week Baltimore’s offensive linemen handled the complexity of Pittsburgh’s defensive schemes exceptionally well. This week they’ll be charged with blocking a similarly difficult defensive front. But at this point, how can you doubt them?
Prediction
Ravens 26, Patriots 21
