Now that the NFL offseason is in full swing and no meaningful games will be played for seven months, rumors and speculation about free agency, cap casualties and mock drafts are already running rampant on most media outlets.
While the Ravens are in good shape in the trenches, they have needs at nearly every playmaker position. There are questions around running back, tight end, the secondary, and of course the wide receiver position. The needs for every team including the Ravens change year to year, but it seems like every offseason the Ravens are always in search of that elusive number one receiver.
The startling reality is that the Ravens have never really had a top receiver, at least not in this millennium. You could make the argument that Michael Jackson was that guy in 1996 and maybe Qadry Ismail in 1999, but in recent history they have lacked a top threat. Receivers like Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith and Steve Smith have been difference makers at times, but they never scared defenses the way that Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr. or Julio Jones do. They’ve been solid, but all have disappeared for stretches and lack the ability to single-handedly take over a game.
So why has this always been the Ravens Achilles heel, or illusive white unicorn? The answer is actually quite simple, the Ravens have not drafted well at the wide receiver position.
Despite having a reputation as one of the most savvy front offices in football, they have swung and missed badly on the two occasions they took a wide receiver on day one of the draft. Travis Taylor and Mark Clayton were both busts as top picks, and neither cracked 1000 yards in a single season in their careers, regardless of who was under center.
So if the Ravens don’t draft well at wide receiver there’s always the free agency route, right?
Unfortunately it’s just not that simple. While Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas or Brandon Marshall would be great, it probably won’t happen this offseason. Bryant and Thomas will likely be tagged if long term deals aren’t reached, and Marshall needs to be cut as he is still under contract. And getting a top receiver in free agency isn’t just a challenge this year; the options are few and far between each offseason.
Just looking at the past three seasons at the top 10 receivers in terms of total yards, 26 of those 30 were playing for the team that drafted them. That equates to 87 percent.
It’s easy to see why the top receiving threats are hard to find on the free agent market. Putting the price tag aside teams rarely let them walk, because they know how tough they are to find.
Even if these guys do hit the market, it is a well known fact that the Ravens don’t make big splashes in free agency. In the rare cases that these players do make it to free agency, teams need to do a cannonball into the deep end of the pool to land them, and that’s something that Baltimore just doesn’t do.
While finding an established top threat would be great, it doesn’t correlate with the Ravens and the way they go about their business. Until they are able to find that player in the draft, a combination of former top threats past their prime and number two receivers will continue to make up their receiving corps.
