More and more mock drafts are starting to come out as draft analysts try to prognosticate which players will go at what pick and to whom.
Mock drafts are fun, but a lot has been made of how unbelievably wrong they can be.
One of the most popular mock drafters, Mel Kiper, usually puts out his first mock draft right around Super Bowl time, when the order is almost set.
What would the NFL look like if he was actually right?
Jimmy Kempski, of PhillyVoice, a Philadelphia sports blog, put up a chart on Twitter showing exactly what that alternate universe would look like (as well as a corresponding article).
If Mel Kiper’s initial mock drafts over the last 5 years were 100% accurate, here’s who your team would have drafted: pic.twitter.com/riGs2f4yVH
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) February 18, 2015
As you can see, the Ravens would have drafted two tight ends, Jermaine Gresham of the Bengals and Eric Ebron of the Lions, as well as a cornerback, Brandon Harris of the Titans, and two linebackers, Kevin Minter of the Cardinals and Vontaze Burfict of the Bengals.
Here’s is a yearly breakdown of who Mel Kiper projected would be the Ravens’ pick and who the Ravens actually got with those picks:
- 2010 – TE Jermaine Gresham – TRADE for what became LB Sergio Kindle, TE Ed Dickson, and TE Dennis Pitta
- 2011 – CB Brandon Harris – CB Jimmy Smith
- 2012 – LB Vontaze Burfict – TRADE for what became LB Courtney Upshaw and C Gino Gradkowski
- 2013 – LB Kevin Minter – S Matt Elam
- 2014 – TE Eric Ebron – LB CJ Mosley
The Ravens definitely did better picking for themselves than Mel Kiper did in 2011 and 2014 with two current defensive stars, CJ Mosley and Jimmy Smith, but the other three drafts are questionable.
Jermaine Gresham hasn’t exactly lived up to the height of a 1st-round tight end, but over the course of his career, he’s been more productive than Sergio Kindle, Ed Dickson, and Dennis Pitta combined, mainly due to the fact that he’s been on the field more than Pitta and Kindle and he doesn’t have hands made of bricks like Ed Dickson.
Vontaze Burfict has become a playmaker for Cincinnati’s defense since they signed the undrafted free agent after 2011, while Courtney Upshaw has been a role player for the Ravens’ defense and Gino Gradkowski had one of the worst years for an offensive lineman in Ravens history when he started in 2013.
Kevin Minter hasn’t played as well as Arizona would have hoped for and has only started 5 games in his career, whereas Matt Elam has started 26 games but has been a major disappointment.
Even if you think that the Ravens would have gotten more production out of Kiper’s picks in 2010, 2012, and 2013, the difference is marginal. With CJ Mosley and Jimmy Smith, the upgrade is huge over Eric Ebron and Brandon Harris so far.
I’ll stick with the current universe instead of Mel Kiper’s alternate one.
