For the Ravens, winning is the only statistic that matters. You won’t find many Ravens players leading fantasy football teams to victory.
I’m sure that doesn’t bother them even a little.
But projecting statistical outcomes gives us a fun exercise that can help us predict how the season may unfold.
To paint a picture of 2015, let’s play a game of over/under. We’ll project which side of several important stats certain players and position groups will land.
Joe Flacco: 4,000 Yards
This category is one of the most interesting. Last year, Flacco came just 14 excruciating yards shy of the mark—his highest career total at 3,986. What sticks out from 2014 is that the offense gained a league-leading 335 yards from defensive pass interference penalties (and it’s not even close: the next most was 238 yards), which eliminated quite a bit of potential yardage.
Despite that large chunk of yardage missing from his total, Flacco also set career-highs for touchdowns (27) and ESPN’s Total QBR (67.3), a trend that shows that even in the regular season, the Ravens quarterback continues to improve.
With several talented weapons coming to Baltimore this season, it seems very likely that he exceeds the 4,000 yard threshold.
Prediction: Over
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Rookie Pass Catchers: 15 Touchdowns
The Ravens reloaded their offense by drafting a number of skill players in Breshad Perriman, Maxx Williams, Nick Boyle, Darren Waller, and even Buck Allen out of the backfield, all of whom figure to haul in passes from Flacco this fall.
While every rookie learns the complexities of an NFL offense at their own pace, the team expects contributions from all of their offensive rookies. Expectations are especially high for Perriman, who is already penciled in as a starter alongside Steve Smith Sr.
Flacco tossed 27 touchdowns last year, so with a similar performance in 2015, the rookies would need to grab about half of the aerial scores to meet that mark. It is a close call, but I say they fall a bit shy of 15.
Perriman’s speed will be a huge asset between the 20s, but look for Joe to lean on his trusted veterans Smith, Brown, Campanero, Aiken, and possibly even Pitta to get in the endzone more frequently than the youngsters.
I love the red zone potential of 6’6” wideout Darren Waller, but he may need time to prove that he can effectively exploit his large frame at the pro level before he sees the field.
Prediction: Under
(Projected TD totals – Perriman: 6, Williams: 5, Boyle: 2, Allen: 1, Waller: 0)
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Suggs/Dumervil: 23 Sacks
This lethal duo combined for an astounding 29 sacks last year. Dumervil has never tallied more sacks in a season than his 17 last year, and Suggs’ has only once surpassed his 12 from 2014. With both players growing another year older, I set the line here a bit lower at 23 sacks.
Both Pro-Bowl caliber talents, Suggs and Dumervil will continue to produce. However, with the loss of pass-rushing specialist Pernell McPhee, and interior stalwart Haloti Ngata, opposing offensive lines will key on the outside rush and the sack numbers will likely dip for the duo.
Look also for Timmy Jernigan to poach a few more sacks from inside and for Courtney Upshaw to steal some snaps from Dumervil. Even rookie LB Za’Darius Smith has the potential to make an impact like McPhee did in his rookie season with 6 sacks.
Prediction: Under
(Projected sack totals: Dumervil: 9, Suggs: 12)
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Defensive Backs: 10 Interceptions
This is probably the most important stat of the bunch. Even when the Ravens defense has played well recently, the unit has not generated as many takeaways as expected. Turnovers are one of John Harbaugh’s favorite statistics, but last year an injury-stricken secondary carded just 6 interceptions during the regular season.
The defensive backs have nowhere to go but up. With Will Hill settling in as a polished safety, two experienced starting corners, and some young players with potential, the secondary could again become a productive unit. Interceptions are often a fickle statistic, but Jimmy Smith could tally a handful of picks on his own. The Ravens also recently signed a former league-leader in interceptions when they signed Kyle Arrington.
Prediction: Over
(Smith: 4, Arrington: 3, Webb: 2, Lewis: 2, Hill: 1, Elam (yes Elam): 1)
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Do you have any other over/under predictions? Tell us in the comments!
