News this week that the Patriots had played beat the clock and signed franchised Placekicker Stephen Gostkowski to a new long-term contract prior to the July 15th deadline seemed to set the market for the Ravens’ negotiations with their own PK, Justin Tucker.
As details of Gostkowski’s deal start to trickle in, it became clear that Gostkowski’s new deal has set the top of the market for kickers.
And I was taken by strength of Stephen Gostkowski’s deal. $10.1M fully guar, $6M to sign; $8.1M in ’15; $10.7M thru 2 years; $13.7M thru 3.
— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) July 16, 2015
Based on details provided by Breer, Gostkowski’s deal should work out something like this:
As Breer said, that’s a “strong” deal, as Gostkowski received the largest bonus for a PK ($6M), the largest yearly average for a PK ($4.3M), the largest guarantee for a PK ($10.1M), which is fully guaranteed, and the largest guarantee per year ($2.525M). Gostkowski definitely knocked one out of the park and that deal probably isn’t really helpful to the Ravens.
So, the question then is – what impact does Gostkowski’s deal have on the negotiations between and the Ravens and Tucker.
Tucker is presently playing under the one-year RFA tender of $2.356M and there have been reports that both sides would like to reach a long-term deal. What each side wants though remains to be seen.
Obviously, there is no question that Tucker is going to get paid – and paid handsomely – but will his new deal top Gostkowski’s?
There are several factors in Tucker’s favor and several against him:
IN TUCKER’S FAVOR:
- Tucker is only 25 (will be 26 in November), while Gostkowski is already 31.
- Tucker, in his three years, has the highest active FG percentage, and while a small sample still, the highest career FG percentage in the history of the NFL.
- Tucker’s FG percentage was down in 2014, but only because he only made 4/9 attempts from beyond 50 yards (he was 10 of 11 in his prior two years). Tucker did not miss from within 50 yards in 2014. I don’t think this will be held against Tucker as the coaching staff are comfortable asking him to attempt those kicks.
AGAINST TUCKER:
- Tucker has played only three years, while Gostkowksi (the 2nd most accurate PK in NFL history) has done it for nine years. While Tucker has been pretty much spectacular in those three years, NFL front offices have generally been leery of rewarding kickers with short histories of success (although the Ravens did make that mistake with Billy Cundiff).
- Gostkowski was playing under the Franchise Tag and there was a deadline to be met, which gave Gostkowski a lot of leverage while also sort of setting the yearly average of the deal (based on the amount of the Franchise Tag).
- Tucker, playing under the one-year RFA tender, doesn’t have that kind of leverage. In fact, the Ravens hold more leverage because they have the threat of the Franchise Tag in 2016.
Needless to say, both are fantastic kickers and both are deserving of top of the market deals. Given that Tucker is younger, he is likely to receive a deal of more than four years, which will raise the total value of the deal and likely the bonus amount and guaranteed money. The question then is would a deal for Tucker top Gostkowski’s yearly average ($4.3M) and his guarantee per year ($2.525M)?
This is where the leverage issue comes into play. With the deadline to sign a long-term deal coming quickly, the Patriots had the impetus to strike a deal. Neither likely wanted to see the Tag used again next year and for Gostkowski, receiving $8.1M this year and $10.1M fully guaranteed versus playing under the one-year, $4.54M Franchise Tag contract certainly made sense for him.
In Tucker’s case, the finality of a deadline and the leverage that it provides does not exist. The Ravens also hold the card of the threat of the Tag, which clearly no player wants to see. As such, they could perhaps get a slightly lesser agreement with Tucker since he is not yet a pending free agent or already under the Franchise Tag. That said, the longer it goes, as Gostkowski’s deal (and Justin Houston’s and Dez Bryant’s and Demaryius Thomas’) would indicate, and that signing deadline approaches for top players, the top dollars flow.
So, what would a “fair” deal for Tucker look like? The guess here is that he does top Gostkowski in some of the important thresholds, but not all.
How about a six-year deal, worth a total of $23M, with a Signing Bonus of $7.5M and $10M guaranteed (2016 base salary guaranteed for injury only)?
Such a deal could break down as follows:
This deal would put Tucker a little below Gostkowski in most of the major contract benchmarks, but firmly above all other PKs. This difference would be a result of the different lengths of their careers and their present bargain positions (Franchise Tag versus RFA tender).
This would seem to be a fair deal for both sides as it pays Tucker handsomely, but keeps him just below most of the important benchmarks set by Gostkowski’s deal.
What would you like to see in the next Justin Tucker contract? Should he be the highest paid kicker in the NFL?
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