SUPER BOWL 50
No. 1 Carolina Panthers vs. No. 1 Denver Broncos
Sunday, February 7, at 6:30 P.M. ET on CBS
Line: Carolina -5
Over/under: 45.5
Forecast: Clear, 48 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind E at 3 mph
Cost of 30-second TV advertisement: $5 million
Panthers Super Bowl record: 0-1
Broncos Super Bowl record: 2-5
Head-to-head record: 3-1 in favor of Denver
Last meeting: Broncos 36, Panthers 14; Sunday, November 11, 2012
Panthers X-factor: Kawann Short
Broncos X-factor: Shaquil Barrett
Analysis: The same players that led this year’s Broncos & Panthers in passing, rushing, and receiving this season were on their respective teams when these two teams met over three years ago.
Both Demaryius Thomas and Greg Olsen caught nine passes for over 100 yards in that game. Even though he was playing at home, Cam Newton threw two touchdowns, but he also threw two interceptions, was sacked seven times, and rushed four times for only seven yards. Peyton Manning had a much better afternoon, as he completed 71 percent of his passes and threw for 301 yards and one touchdown.
This time around, while the quarterbacks will play a very important role for their respective teams, I see the performance of each team’s defense (and front seven, in particular) being the determining factor in which team will win Super Bowl 50.
Denver’s defense was ranked first overall in the regular season, but has given up 366 yards per game in this postseason, ranking them 10th out of 12 teams. Carolina’s defense ranked sixth in the regular season and is ranked seventh so far in the postseason.
The key stat, though, is turnovers. In this postseason, Carolina is plus-8 while Denver is plus-2. To be plus-8 in turnover ratio in only two games against other playoff teams shows you the Panthers are peaking at the right time.
They’re coaching wisely, too. Jonathan Stewart has only had to carry the football 48 times (in three games) since December 13th, but has averaged 5.5 yards per carry and scored three touchdowns in that time. To keep a running back simultaneously fresh and productive at the end of a season is quite a feat.
However, the Carolina coaching staff will have to figure out how to deploy a less-than-100 percent Jared Allen. In the divisional playoff game against the Seahawks, Allen broke his foot. However, he’s aiming to return for Super Bowl 50 after missing the NFC title game.
Regarding Allen’s potential return, head coach Ron Rivera said:
“I’m excited for the fact that he’s got two weeks to get ready, and prove to me that he’s ready to roll, which I believe he will knowing him. That’s just who he is.”
If Allen doesn’t go (and even if he’s limited), look for undrafted rookie Ryan Delaire (Towson) to take his place.
The key for Carolina’s defense will be to pressure Peyton Manning and disallow quick passes. One way to do that would be for their defensive ends to rush up field, forcing Manning to step up in the pocket. When that happens, he will be met by defensive tackles Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short.
Lotulelei is probably the more well-known player, as he was selected 14th overall in 2013. But Short was taken by Carolina in the second round of the same draft. Both players are extremely talented, but I believe Short will be the difference-maker.
In 2015, Short led the Panthers with 11 sacks (one-fourth of the team’s total). In his lasts seven games (playoffs included), he’s recorded seven sacks. With stars like Luke Kuechly, Josh Norman, and Thomas Davis (who promises to play despite a broken arm), there’s only so much scheming Denver offensive coordinator Rick Dennison can do before he’s forced to leave his offensive line in one-on-one situations with Short.
The good news for Denver is that Carolina offensive coordinator Mike Shula will pretty much have the same problem, as the Broncos defense has studs at every position. One of those studs that isn’t yet a household name (but could be after this game) is Shaquil “Shaq” Barrett. In just his second season, Barrett, a Baltimore native, recorded 50 tackles, 5.5 sacks, four passes defensed, and four forced fumbles. He does a little bit of everything, and like Short, will be the beneficiary of some one-on-one matchups on February 7.
Both teams have talented rosters, with most of the talent being on their defense. Neither head coaches has ever been the head coach in a Super Bowl, but they (and their coaching staffs) have Super Bowl experience.
To me, this game will come down to two things: the protection each offensive line affords its quarterback, and the clutch plays made by each quarterback. Carolina’s offensive line has been outstanding (two sacks and three quarterback hits in the playoffs) while Denver’s has been good but not great (four sacks and seven quarterback hits in the playoffs).
Prediction: Carolina 26, Denver 20
MVP: Cam Newton (20-for-38, 246 yards, 1 TD; 8 carries, 65 yards, 1 TD)
