NFL Picks Week 5

Joey Pepperoni's Picks NFL Picks Week 5

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Many who stayed up late to watch the end of the Monday night game between the Washington football team and the Kansas City Chiefs saw a bizarre finish that could only be dubbed one thing: the true definition of a bad beat.

Washington attempted to win the game on a bunch of lateral passes. It did not go as planned as Justin Houston eventually scooped up the loose football and took it in for a touchdown as time expired. While it may have seemed like a meaningless touchdown in the game, it had huge ramifications in Vegas. The touchdown led to an epic cover for the Chiefs and the over, while those who bet Washington and the under watched their winnings go down the drain.

If you happened to parlay the Chiefs and the over, it seemed all but over as time ticked away in the fourth. We have seen the lateral plays countless times and they never amount to a score. So many may have already turned their televisions off by that time. Little did they know, they woke up in the morning as a winner. If you did stay awake for the entire game, I am almost guarantee the rush from such a huge win kept you up a lot later than you wanted.

Now imagine if you were on the other side. The feeling inside your stomach as Houston picked that ball up, broke a few tackles and found his way into the end zone is basically a kick to where the sun doesn’t shine. That’s the worst way any gambler can lose a game.

There is a motto for those who dab into the Vegas lines here and there, and that’s “scared money don’t make money.” The bad losses will be there. So, will the epic wins. It’s all about being on the right side every Sunday – and Thursday, and Monday and Saturday later in the season – to make money by the end of the NFL campaign.

I’m here to (hopefully) help you out.

If you’ve followed my writing throughout the years, you have seen that betting lines are something I like to take part in. It’s too easy to pick a winner and a loser each week. Testing your football knowledge against the “pros” in Vegas is more challenging. And what the hell, making a few bucks on the side never hurt anyone.

While we are starting this a few weeks into the NFL season, there is still plenty of time left to finish the year with a profit. Each week, I will give my best bets for the NFL, and of course, which side to take when the Ravens take the field.

Season record: 0-0

*All lines are courtesy of Scores and Odds*

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (under 39)

Not the ideal matchup I would like for my first pick of the year, but that has more to do with Oakland losing Derek Carr than anything we have seen from the Ravens. We have no clue what to expect from the Raiders with E.J. Manuel running the offense, but then again, the Ravens don’t have much of an offense either. Both teams will use the ground game to eliminate the sloppy play from their quarterbacks and bank on their defense to make key stops. That’s the perfect scenario when taking the under. Also, it’s important to note that both teams have gone over the total once apiece this season, and the under has hit in three of their last four meetings in Oakland.

Joe Flacco fist pump

BALTIMORE, MD – NOVEMBER 10: Quarterback Joe Flacco reacts after a play against the Cleveland Browns in the third quarter at M&T Bank Stadium on November 10, 2016 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-2)

Call me crazy, but this could be the best Lions team we have seen under Jim Caldwell. Detroit made Matthew Stafford the highest-paid player in the NFL, but have turned the offense into one where he isn’t forced to throw 50 times a game to win. They also have their best defense in years. Cam Newton and company should be thrilled to get a win in Foxborough, that was more about how bad the Patriots defense is than anything else. The Lions should control this game, and even if Stafford is down late, he’s always good for a comeback.

Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Cardinals have been one of the hardest teams to gauge this season. Many felt they could contend for the NFC West, but so far, their two wins are against the Indianapolis Colts and San Francisco 49ers. Meanwhile, the Eagles have been in highly contested games that have come down to the wire. If this line goes up to 7, it’s one you have to take because Arizona should keep this game respectable. A field goal should win this game, and us some money.

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) at Dallas Cowboys

You might think to yourself that the Cowboys will respond well after losing to the Los Angeles Rams at home last week. It’s anything but as the defense has been brutal to start the season and coming to Jerry’s World is Aaron Rodgers. He will have no problem picking apart a defense that just allowed Jared Goff to throw for 225 yards and two scores. Here’s an interesting nugget to keep in mind also: Dallas is 0-14 ATS as a home favorite coming off a straight up and ATS loss.

These are my four winners for Week 5.

I’ll take a small finder’s fee if you ride the money train with me.

Until next week, SHOW ME THE MONEY!

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Joe Serpico

About Joe Serpico

Joe learned his journalistic ways in the halls of Annenberg and McGonigle en route to becoming Temple Made. He has had season tickets for the Orioles since 2011, and joins Russell Street Report after years of covering Baltimore sports for other media outlets. He only watches actual reality tv: sports.

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