Last Week: 9-6-1
Week 1 Whiffs:
— Sam Namath Darnold started how I expected him to. It was the other 59:40 that surprised me. He looked poised in the pocket and led the Jets to a rout. Similar questions come out of this game as in most Week 1 games. Are Stafford and the Lions that bad or is the Jets’ defense that good?
— I thought for sure the New Orleans defense would hand the NFL’s smartest quarterback a swift beating. 417 yards and 4 touchdowns later, the joke was on me (and probably a lot of you who picked them in Survivor pools).
A decent start to the year, which now leads us into Overreaction Week. It always seems that in Week 2 there are more questions than in Week 1. Is this team that good or is that team that bad?
Vegas has to juggle those thoughts too and you can find good value in Week 2 lines if you hop on them at the right time.
As always, most importantly:
Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!
Here we go with Week 2…
Thursday – 9/13/18
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5, o/u 44.0)
I keep going back and forth on this one. I am trying not to put too much stock in a Ravens win over a lowly Bills team in Week 1, but that is hard. The Ravens tend to not fare well in Cincinnati and going away on a short week cannot help matters.
However, the Ravens were able to play the second half of Week 1 as a glorified preseason game, which should help. The last 10 meetings, Cincy is 6-4 against the spread, but with a revamped offense, the Ravens pull out a close one on the road.
My Pick: Baltimore -1.5
Sunday – 9/16/18
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (Off the board)
With the status of Aaron Rodgers up in the air, this one is still off the board as of Wednesday. Honestly, I was going to be taking the Vikings in this game regardless, but Rodgers’ potential injury will change this line dramatically.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Redskins (-6.0, o/u 45.5)
To me, this game comes down to just not trusting the Colts (mainly Andrew Luck) just yet. The Redskins offense should be able to move the ball at will and then it will come down to how many points the Colts can put on the board.
This week, I do not think it will be enough.
My Pick: Washington -6.0
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.0, o/u 52.5)
This should be a fun game to watch. Both teams surprised in different ways in Week 1. Not many people saw the Chiefs handling the Chargers or the Steelers struggling to a tie with the Browns. Pittsburgh is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games against Kansas City, but these are both two different teams at this point. This will be a close game.
I am not sure Kansas City will win, but I see this as a 3-point game one way or the other.
My Pick: Kansas City +5.0
Cleveland Browns vs. New Orleans Saints (-9.0, o/u 49.5)
Were these two teams’ Week 1 performances an aberration? I think the Browns have gained some confidence coming into Week 2 and that is dangerous in the NFL. The Saints laid an egg in Week 1 and this could be a big bounce back week. That being said, nine points is a lot and these are not the Browns of years past. I like the Browns to lose, but cover the nine points.
My Pick: Cleveland +9.0
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.0, o/u 44.0)
I am betting on the NFL’s smartest quarterback not being able to duplicate his Week 1 output. The Eagles did not look great against Atlanta, but they are by far the better team in my opinion. They win and cover in Week 2.
My Pick: Philadelphia -3.0
Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-6.0, o/u 44.5)
Another one here where I am not sure what to expect. In the last 10 meetings between the division rivals, they are an even 5-5, but Carolina is 1-4 in the last 5 against Atlanta. However, they are 8-3 in the last 11 overall. Now that I have thoroughly confused you, I believe Carolina covers the six points here, as the Falcons have not played a convincing game from the start of preseason.
My Pick: Carolina +6.0
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets (-3.0, o/u 44.0)
I am not necessarily buying into Sam Darnold yet, but I am buying into the Jets defense. They were very impressive in the Week 1 win over Detroit. MetLife stadium will be extremely loud as the Jets’ fan base now can see a light at the end of the tunnel after just one week.
Plus, I am just not a believer in Ryan Tannehill.
J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS for the win.
My Pick: New York -3.0
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (Off the board)
Again, this one is off the board because of an injury last week to Mariota and questions around whether or not he will suit up this week. Houston was probably going to be a favorite anyway; it is just a matter of by how much.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills (+7.5, o/u 43.0)
This is as close to a must win for the Chargers as you can get in the second week of the season. After falling to Kansas City in Week 1, LA cannot afford to lose to a Bills team that got run over, around, and through in Baltimore. Phillip Rivers and co. will rebound in a big way and win by two touchdowns in Josh Allen’s first start.
My Pick: Los Angeles -7.5
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers (-6.0, o/u 48.0)
I do not have a real good feel on this game. The Lions should at least be able to keep this one close and even steal one in San Fran if things break their way.
My Pick: Detroit +6.0
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-13.0, o/u 45.5)
Arizona could not score against the Redskins so there is no reason to think they will be able to score against the Rams in their home opener. The Rams righted their ship in the second half of their Monday night win over the Raiders and they keep on rolling here.
My Pick: Los Angeles -13.0
New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.0, o/u 45.0)
I really want to pick the Jaguars here but my conscience will not let me. The Pats are 14-1 straight up and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games. That trend does not change this week against a weak Jags offense.
My Pick: New England -2.0
Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos (-5.5, o/u 46.0)
Oakland is 1-6 straight up and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Broncos have the defense that can stymie Chuckie’s offense. I am not too confident on this pick, but I like Denver to cover.
My Pick: Denver -5.5
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys (-3.0, o/u 42.0)
The Giants had a tough matchup in Week 1 against one of the better defenses in the NFL. This week’s matchup will be a little more forgiving and they get rolling against the Cowboys. Beckham and Barkley both reach pay dirt this week in big D. I like the Giants to win outright.
My Pick: New York +3.0
Monday – 9/17/18
Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears (-3.5, o/u 43.5)
I never would have thought Khalil Mack would make the impact he did in Week 1 for the Bears. That just proves how good a linebacker he truly is. The Bears made a believer out of this guy in the opening week while the Seahawks proved they couldn’t finish. I will take the Fighting Ditka’s.
My Pick: Chicago -3.5
There are not many picks this week where I am overly confident. Week 2 is normally not my friend most years. I am going to play a parlay this week with the few games I am semi-confident in, but that will be it for me this week:
New England -2.0
Good luck in Week 2!
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