Week 3 NFL Picks

The Back Door Cover Week 3 NFL Picks

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Last Week: 6-8

Overall: 15-14-1

Week 2 Whiffs

— My “confident” parlay. I went one for four in my parlay of games I felt confident in. This just reinforces my longstanding hate of Week 2.

— The New York Giants let me down. I thought for sure that they would take it to the Cowboys and dominate that matchup. I was wrong, to put it mildly.

— Ryan “McGregor” Fitzpatrick walked to the podium following his beating of the Super Bowl champions looking like the most interesting man in the world. Even though I lost this game, I cannot help but root for someone who steals (pun intended) the show from a 20-something diva quarterback.

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After a rough Week 2 (that could have been a lot worse), we are still above water for the year. Now that teams are starting to take shape a little bit, we are going to start seeing lines that make you think a little more than the first few weeks.

Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!

Onto Week 3…

Thursday – 9/20/18

New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns (-3.0, o/u 39.5)

Yes, you read that right. The Cleveland Browns are favored and most of the money is even flowing in on the Brownies. The NFL powers that be gifted them with a Thursday night home game against a below average team. Cleveland will be opening their Bud Light victory fridges after Thursday night for their first win since Week 16 of 2016.

Dilly Dilly, Cleveland. Dilly Dilly.

My Pick: Cleveland -3.0

Sunday – 9/23/18

Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings (-17.0, o/u 41.0)

Minnesota will win; it’s just a matter of by how much. I will be surprised if Buffalo is able to reach double digits against a stingy Vikings defense, so it comes down to how many points Minnesota can score.

Seventeen points is a ton in this day’s NFL, but I see Minnesota covering here. They are 10-5 ATS in their last fifteen games and that trend should continue.

My Pick: Minnesota -17.0

Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins (+3.0, o/u 45.5)

This game is more of a gut feeling on my part. The Redskins did not show up in Week 2 against Indianapolis, and the historical numbers in this matchup favor The Pack. They are 5-2-1 ATS against Washington and have dominated just about every statistical category.

Even with Rogers not at 100%, I think they cover here.

My Pick: Green Bay -3.0

Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, o/u 44.0)

The homer in me likes what he saw in the second half of Thursday’s game against Cincinnati. Without C.J. Mosley, this defense is undoubtedly different, but they should be able to hold their own. Denver is only 2-11-1 in their last fourteen games ATS and Baltimore is 8-4 ATS in their last twelve against Denver.

Couple those together and it should lead to a Baltimore cover.

My Pick: Baltimore -5.5

What is a franchise quarterback

Indianapolis Colts vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, o/u 47.5)

Wentz’s first start, at home. The crowd will be raucous behind their fallen leader’s return and the Eagles will play passionate football in front of their fans. Philly is 8-2 in their last ten games at home and with Wentz back at the helm, which will continue here in Week 2.

My Pick: Philadelphia -6.5

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-7.0, o/u 57.0)

I may be falling into the trap that Mr. Mahomes is setting for bettors, but he has looked damn good over the first two weeks of this season. So far, no one has been able to stop the weapons that Kansas City can throw at a defense, and the over/under is expecting another shootout. The numbers are pretty much a wash as San Fran is 7-3 in their last ten games on the road and Kansas City is 6-1 in their last seven games overall.

Either way, Hill, Watkins, and co. should be able to comfortably outduel the 49ers.

My Pick: Kansas City -7.0

New York Giants vs. Houston Texans (-6.0, o/u 42.0)

Even after making me look foolish last week, I am still in the “I do not think the Giants are that bad” camp. This is strictly a gut feeling, but the numbers are (semi) on my side. Houston is 0-5 ATS and 0-5 straight up in their last five games. This is a big game for both teams as they try to stay in the hunt after 0-2 starts.

I think the Texans win, but the Giants will cover.

My Pick: New York Giants +6.0

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3.0, o/u 53.0)

Vegas is putting a lot of stock in the Saints’ performance in the first two weeks. I am not. They are better than Atlanta and should win this game outright on paper. However, as you know, games are not won on paper. The last ten games are even up at 5-5, but I give the edge to the Saints in Week 3.

My Pick: New Orleans +3.0

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers (-3.0, o/u 44.0)

I like what I saw against the Ravens in Week 2. Even without Vontaze Burfict, Cincinnati was able to hold the Ravens at bay for most of the game. The only thing giving me second thoughts is that the Bengals will be without Joe Mixon.

The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. They cover against Carolina.

My Pick: Cincinnati +3.0

Oakland Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins (-3.0, o/u 43.5)

I am going to continue on my “bet against the Dolphins” barrage to start the season. Ryan Tannehill has been making me look silly, but I will go with Chuckie and his band of merry men this week. The Raiders are 9-1 ATS in their last ten September road games.

They find a way to get Amari Cooper involved this week and win outright.

My Pick: Oakland +3.0

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Off the board)

With Marcus Mariota’s status still up in the air, this game is off the board. Depending on how large of a spread this is, I would most likely be putting my money on Jacksonville.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Los Angeles Rams (-7.0, o/u 48.0)

Opposite of my barrage against the Dolphins, I am going to continue my love affair with the Rams until they betray me. I do not think it happens this week, as they are 7-2 in their last nine games as a favorite.

The defense will shut down Philip Rivers and put up points on the Chargers defense.

My Pick: Los Angeles Rams -7.0

Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks (-1.0, o/u 41.5)

Seattle needs a win here. They have not lost a September home game since 2009 and are 11-2 ATS in that time. That means I should pick Seattle, right? Dallas’ defense ranks second in the NFL with nine sacks and has been a strength of their team.

I think Dallas ends Seattle’s unbeaten streak this week.

My Pick: Dallas +1.0

Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals (+6.5, o/u 38.0)

Chicago has impressed me more than any other team in the league. Khalil Mack continues to prove he is the top defensive player in the NFL and the Bears offense continues to improve.

They are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and they will beat up on a Cardinals team struggling to find their identity.

My Pick: Chicago -6.5

New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions (+7.0, o/u 52.0)

This is one of my favorite spots: good teams coming off bad losses. The Patriots fit that bill this week. Her majesty does not take losing well and will bounce back this week.

Since 2000, the Patriots are 21-6 ATS following a double-digit loss and 9-3 ATS in their last twelve night games.

My Pick: New England -7.0

Monday – 9/24/18

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.0, o/u 54.0)

This is going to be a good matchup. We are not sure who these teams are yet at this juncture of the season. Pittsburgh is 1-8 ATS in their last nine games and the Bucs are 5-0 in their last five. Something about this though is telling me that this is a bounce back week for Pittsburgh and I am just not buying into “Fitzmagic.”

Pittsburgh wins, but this one should be fun to watch, as there are a TON of story lines.

My Pick: Pittsburgh -1.0

Last week’s parlay took a shot on the chin going 1-3. This week, I am hoping, goes a little smoother:

New England -7.0

New Orleans +3.0

Green Bay -3.0

Cleveland -3.0

Good luck to everyone this week!

Check out this week’s Live NFL Odds to give you a better chance of success on all your football wagers.

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About Drew Kordula

I was born and raised in Baltimore. I'm a graduate of Eastern Tech and UMBC. Baltimore/Maryland sports have always been a huge part of my life. Whether it be going to University of Maryland Football games with my dad as a kid, or climbing to the top of Mt. M&T Bank Stadium for my seats in section 540 today. I'm a Joe Flacco apologist, Buck Showalter groupie, and Wild Bill Hagy disciple. I love writing about Baltimore sports because I know how passionate of a fan base we have here. Everyone has an opinion and I invite you to share yours on any of my blogs no matter if you agree or disagree. Feel free to follow me on twitter @DrewKordula More from Drew Kordula


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