Week 5 NFL Picks

The Back Door Cover Week 5 NFL Picks

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Last Week: 6-7-2

Overall: 28-29-3 – 49.1%

Week 4 Whiffs

— Close calls. I was on the wrong side of the three closest calls last week and there were two pushes as well. The books once again prove they have a sixth sense when it comes to assigning lines, as three games were within a point and a half of the spread (LA Rams, Dallas, and Kansas City) and there were two pushes (Cleveland and Seattle). These games derailed me this week.

— Along with the Dolphins, Tennessee is proving to be a team I just cannot read. In Carson Wentz’s second week and with the return of Alshon Jeffrey, I thought the Eagles would be flying high in Tennessee. Instead, they struggled and Tennessee continued their home dominance.

— Without Jimmy Garoppolo, I pegged the 49ers to have a big letdown. That did not happen in the least. In the second half, it looked like the Chargers would be able to cover as they went up by nine points with plenty of time left to put some more points on the board. San Fran wanted nothing to do with supporting my kids’ college funds as they came back to take the lead, only to lose outright late.

6-7-2 and last week could have been SO much better, had it not been for a late cover by Minnesota and two pushes by Cleveland and Seattle. Luckily, the Ravens covered for me and saved a little bit of face for the week, but those two pushes really bring down your total winnings.

Week 4 was a crazy week. All of the “undefeated” ATS teams either lost or pushed and all of the winless teams covered to get their first ATS win of the season. This created a ton of movement in this week’s rankings as Cleveland now has the top spot as the only team in the NFL not to have a blemish on their ATS record.

Here are the Week 5 ATS Power Rankings:

 

There is some interesting information to gather from these numbers. First, home teams are not faring overwhelmingly better than road teams ATS so far this season. Many bettors like to go with the home team when they are torn on a certain game, but that strategy is not paying off this season.

The two spots where you would be making the most money would be Home underdogs of three points or less and Away underdogs of more than seven points. Home dogs of three points are less have won 77.78% of the time this season and away dogs of more than seven are hitting at 70%.

Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!

Here are my Week 5 picks…

Thursday – 10/4/18

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots (-10.5, o/u 51.5)

Both teams are 2-2 ATS on the season, with New England winning the two at home and the Colts winning their two on the road.

Home favorites of more than seven points are only hitting at 30% so far this season, but the Pats are 9-2 ATS in their last eleven when favored by double digits and 8-2 in their last ten at home. Add to that a bad loss at home in Week 4 for the Colts, and I think we could see a blowout here at her majesty’s castle.

My Pick: New England -10.5

Sunday – 10/7/18

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (+1.5, o/u 51.0)

These teams are 5-5 ATS against each other in the last ten meetings. Green Bay is 2-5 in their last seven and Detroit is 4-1 in its last five.

If you take out the Week 1 outlier from Matthew Stafford’s stats, he has thrown seven touchdowns to one interception. If he continues that this week, the Lions win outright.

My Pick: Detroit +1.5

New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers (-7.0, o/u 44.5)

One of my other favorite spots to pick: teams coming off a bye week. The Panthers are 3-0 ATS in their last three games following a bye.

The Panthers also possess the top rushing offense ,and they will be going up against a Giants team that ranks 29th against the run. I see Carolina being able to move the ball at will and covering the seven points this week.

My Pick: Carolina -7.0

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Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets (-1.0, o/u 42.5)

This game opened at -2.5 and has moved in just a few days to -1.0. Money is still coming in on Denver at that number, which usually scares me, but the Jets have only scored four touchdowns this season and this Denver team will have something to prove after having the undefeated Chiefs on the ropes in Week 4.

The trends are underwhelming for both teams, as Denver is 1-3-1 in their last five and the Jets are 1-4. Both teams are desperate for a win here, as they have both lost the past two weeks. I like Denver to win straight up this week.

My Pick: Denver +1.0

Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0, o/u 57.5)

That total is telling us what we already know: these teams are struggling mightily on defense and this should be a shootout.

Both teams are starving for a win here as they chase respective division leaders who are 3-1 on the season. This will be treated like a must-win from both sides, which would normally make me lean toward the home team in this scenario, but Pittsburgh looked lost on Sunday night.

Atlanta sits 25th in this week’s power rankings and Pittsburgh sits at 29th as they have been making piñatas out of bettors this season. As favorites, the Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games and Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last five overall. None of those numbers gives me confidence in either team and I will be personally staying away from this game, but if I had to pick…

My Pick: Atlanta +3.0

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns (+3.0, o/u 47.5)

My gut is telling me to pick Cleveland plus the points here. This is prime “let-down” territory for a team in Baltimore that is coming off a big game against their rival. However, the numbers tell me to go in a different direction.

Both teams have performed well ATS this season as they sit in the top three of the power rankings. The Ravens are 5-0 ATS against the Browns in their last five and 8-2 in their last ten. This is a different Browns team though, and how much you can take from previous performances is debatable.

The returns of Jimmy Smith and possibly Hayden Hurst are putting me a little more at ease with my decision as I still think the Ravens can cover the points in Cleveland this week.

My Pick: Baltimore -3.0

Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, o/u 49.5)

I will continue my own personal trend of picking against the Dolphins here in Week 5. The Bengals are 11-2 straight up in their last thirteen home games following consecutive road games and the Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven on the road.

Joe Mixon and Vontaze Burfict are scheduled to return for Cincinnati this week so I am picking the Bengals to roll the Fins.

My Pick: Cincinnati -6.5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0, o/u 49.0)

Pat Mahomes has not faced a defense in his young career quite like the Jaguars. They will force him into throwing his first pick of the season this week. There is also the potential of a “look-ahead” game here as the Chiefs take on the Pats next week.

Both teams have been solid ATS recently. Jacksonville is 5-1 in their last six (10-4 on the road) and Kansas City is 8-1 in their last nine.

Assuming Blake Bortles does not fully implode (which is never a safe bet), the Jags at the very least should keep this game close, if not win outright.

My Pick: Jacksonville +3.0

Photo taken by Russell Roberts

Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills (+3.5, o/u 39.0)

I was hoping this line dropped the half point, but it still sits at 3.5. The Titans are 7-2 in their last nine ATS and the Bills are 1-5 in their last six ATS at home versus teams with winning records.

Last week, the Titans’ offense showed a little bit of life. Marcus Mariota threw for 344 yards, which was his highest total since Week 9 of 2015. In addition, Corey Davis finally broke out with 15 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown. If the Titans can get anywhere close to that kind of production out of those two, they will easily cover the 3.5 points.

My Pick: Tennessee -3.5

Oakland Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-6.0, o/u 53.5)

The trends really do not support either team here. The Chargers are 4-10 ATS in their last fourteen at home and the Raiders are 2-6-1 in their last nine on the road. Combine with the fact that they are 5-5 ATS against each other in the last ten and we have to play the “something has to give” card.

This should be a high scoring affair in which I see the Chargers winning by 7-10 points.

My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -6.0

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (+7.5, o/u 51.0)

The Rams are outscoring opponents by an average of 18.3 points per game so far this season and I expect that to continue in Week 5. The Seahawks defense should give the Rams a little more trouble than we are accustomed to seeing this year, but by the end of the day, the Rams just have too much firepower for Seattle.

You can throw the trends out of the window for this one since the Rams have overhauled their roster. The trends say that Seattle dominates this matchup ATS, but again, these are two very different teams than they have been in the past.

The extra half point here does give me a little pause, especially after it cost me a Rams win last week with the same line, but I am still in on the Rams (and the under) here.

My Pick: Los Angeles Rams -7.5

Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3.0, o/u 45.0)

I will be honest. I had Minnesota down here at first. I like to go through each game and first pick what I think is going to happen before looking at any numbers, etc. and then I adjust accordingly after I do some research. The numbers and trends here are overwhelmingly in Philadelphia’s favor.

The Vikings defense is not what it used to be, and the Eagles should be able to exploit that this week. Philly is 8-3 in their last eleven at home and the Vikings are 1-5-1 in their last seven games. I will take Philly at the Linc.

My Pick: Philadelphia -3.0

Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, o/u 41.0)

I do not think the Cardinals win this game, but I do think they keep it close.

San Fran is 0-9 ATS in their last nine as home favorites and the Cardinals are 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the road. I think the injuries the 49ers have had on offense are too much to overcome and Josh Rosen continues to improve. Arizona covers the 4.5.

My Pick: Arizona +4.5

Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans (-3.0, o/u 45.0)

The battle for Texas. Houston was handed a victory from the jaws of a tie last week courtesy of the Colts, and they should be able to build on that momentum this week. The Cowboys also escaped with a win in Week 4, but I believe Houston will take away the running game forcing Dak to try to win this game for Big D.

This is another matchup of teams trending in the wrong direction for bettors. Houston is 1-8 in its last nine ATS and Dallas is 2-4-1 in its last seven. Houston’s defense steps up here and controls the game from the get go.

My Pick: Houston -3.0 

Monday – 10/8/18

Washington Redskins vs. New Orleans Saints (-6.5, o/u 52.5)

I have been on the Saints all season. They only sit at 2-2 ATS so far, but I will be rolling with them again this week even though Washington will be coming off a bye week with an extra day of rest playing on Monday night.

The numbers do not support me here. The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and the Skins are 5-0 ATS in their last five against New Orleans. I just have a feeling here that Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara take care of business on Monday night in The Big Easy.

My Pick: New Orleans -6.5

Last week’s parlay again went .500 going 2-2. I am going to go with four teams again this week. I initially had New England in this list before the spread jumped to 10.5, which scared me off a bit, and I considered throwing Baltimore in here. I left both out because I just was not confident and here is what I was left with:

Denver +1.0

Tennessee -3.5

Los Angeles Chargers -6.0

Philadelphia -3.0

Good luck to everyone this week! Check out GridIron Gold for your online betting needs.

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About Drew Kordula

I was born and raised in Baltimore. I'm a graduate of Eastern Tech and UMBC. Baltimore/Maryland sports have always been a huge part of my life. Whether it be going to University of Maryland Football games with my dad as a kid, or climbing to the top of Mt. M&T Bank Stadium for my seats in section 540 today. I'm a Joe Flacco apologist, Buck Showalter groupie, and Wild Bill Hagy disciple. I love writing about Baltimore sports because I know how passionate of a fan base we have here. Everyone has an opinion and I invite you to share yours on any of my blogs no matter if you agree or disagree. Feel free to follow me on twitter @DrewKordula More from Drew Kordula

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