Last Week: 6-8-1
Overall: 34-37-4 – 47.9%
Week 5 Whiffs
— Second guesses. I second guessed myself on three games and whiffed on all three of them (Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Tennessee). The numbers supported my final pick, but sometimes the numbers do lie. Should have known to always go with my gut instinct…
— I thought the Jags would keep it close (if not win outright) against the red-hot Chiefs. They kept Mahomes semi-at bay allowing 313 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs. However, bad Bortles decided to show up and threw four picks himself. Any time you have Blake Bortles throw 61 times, you know you’re in for a long day.
— Our good old Ravens. After the Ravens beat the Steelers, I said to the group of guys I was watching the game with, “you know they’re losing to the Browns next week, right?” Then I sat down and went through the stats, trends, and any other piece of information I could get my hands on and it all pointed to a Ravens win. Jimmy Smith was coming back. Hayden Hurst was coming back. The defense was allowing next to nothing in the second half. Easy cover. What is impossible to quantify though, is the hangover effect. That led to dropped passes, terrible turnovers, a blocked kick, and questionable play calling. They had us believing there for a second though…
Another sub-.500 week at 6-8-1, but this was the first week that I personally took a loss. The Denver and Tennessee games were a few that really killed me. The week started off on a good note with New England covering on Thursday night, but it went downhill from there.
After a Week 4, where all of the winless ATS teams beat the spread, a similar thing happened in Week 5. The bottom five teams in last week’s power rankings (Houston, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, NY Giants, and Buffalo) went a combined 3-1-1 ATS in Week 5. I don’t foresee that happening again this week.
Here are the Week 6 ATS Power Rankings:
Home underdogs of three points or less continue to dominate against the spread hitting at an 81.82% clip. Overall, home underdogs are hitting at 76.19% through 5 weeks. You would think that number would creep closer and closer back to normal as the season progresses, but if you’ve been playing those odds, you’ve made out well this season.
Disclaimer: Please do not take these picks and expect to make any real money. I enjoy picking games and the discussions they create so feel free to play along. I will provide information for each game, but please make your own decisions and BE RESPONSIBLE!
Here are my Week 6 picks…
Thursday – 10/11/18
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants (+3.0, o/u 44.0)
Both of these teams have struggled so far this season. One we expected, one we did not. The Eagles defense, which was supposed to be one of the best in the league, has faltered this season and their offense hasn’t taken off as expected with the return of Carson Wentz.
The Giants on the other hand, seem to be in turmoil but showed a little life in Carolina last week almost pulling off the upset had it not been for a 63-yard game-winning field goal.
The Eagles are 7-1 straight up in their last 8 against the Giants and the Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 at home. My pick here is for the Eagles to get it going a bit on a short week.
My Pick: Philadelphia -3.0
Sunday – 10/14/18
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans (-9.5, o/u 40.5)
Note: This game was off the board at Bovada at the time of this blog so the spread was pulled from BetOnline.
Houston came up with a much needed overtime win against the Cowboys in Week 5. Although the Bills have played better of late, especially when it comes to forcing turnovers, the Texans should win this week. The question then becomes, by how much?
Neither team is an offensive juggernaut so 9.5 becomes a lot of points. It will come down to whether or not the Texans turn the ball over. If they don’t, they win easily. I’m banking on Deshaun Watson taking care of the ball this week and DeAndre Hopkins having another big game.
The Bills are 1-3 straight up and ATS in their last four games against the Texans. Houston is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 so that makes you think even more about that large spread. That being said, I don’t think the Bills will put up more than 10 points on Houston so I’ll take Houston and the points.
My Pick: Houston -9.5
Seattle Seahawks vs. Oakland Raiders (+3.0, o/u 48.0)
The first London game of the year and I hope they like Skittles. This will be Marshawn Lynch’s first game against his old team and I’m sure he’ll have something to prove. I just think the Seahawks are too much here for the struggling Raiders, especially with no true home field advantage.
Since neither team has performed well ATS as of late, here’s the weird stat of the week: The Seahawks are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games before a bye.
My Pick: Seattle -3.0
Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins (+3.0, o/u 42.0)
I’m going to continue my personal betting attack on the Dolphins. They treated me poorly to start the year, but they’re starting to come around for me the past two weeks losing to New England and Cincinnati. The Bears are coming off their bye week and their defense, which is allowing only 16.25 points per game, should be able to shut down the Fins.
To add to that, Chicago is 5-1 in their last six ATS. Miami, however, is 2-0 ATS at home so far this year, but they take their first loss this week against Khalil Mack and co.
My Pick: Chicago -3.0
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, o/u 53.0)
Let’s start with a little SAT prep:
The Bengals are to the Ravens as the ________ are to the Bengals.
If you guessed Steelers, you’d be one-step closer to Harvard.
One of the more anticipated games of Week 6. This game comes down to what you believe happened in Pittsburgh last week. Has their offense finally clicked and has their defense finally become serviceable? Or was the lopsided victory a product of a banged up Falcons secondary and a team trying to play catch-up all day? I lean more toward the former. Although the Falcons are banged up, I think a game like that (unfortunately) will put the Steelers back on track after a rough start to the season.
The Steelers are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 games against the Bengals with an average margin of victory of 7.5 points. There are some other trends here that you could draw many different conclusions from so I’ll throw a bunch at you:
— 3-9 ATS in their last 12
— 7-0-1 straight up in their last 8 games on the road
— 17-6-1 ATS in the last 24 against Cincinnati
— 13-3-2 ATS in the last 18 against Cincinnati on the road
— 6-1 ATS in their last 7
— 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home
— 6-2 straight up in their last 8 at home
My Pick: Pittsburgh +2.5
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets (-2.5, o/u 45.0)
The Jets look like hot garbage one week and then like world-beaters the next. It’s almost as if they have a rookie quarterback…
They showed up big time against the Broncos at home in Week 5 and I think they do it again here in Week 6 against the Colts. They should be able to run the ball up and down the field on Indy and control the game. The only thing that gives me a little pause is that Andrew Luck started to look a bit like his old self in their matchup with New England and that he had a few more days of rest.
The Jets are 8-3 in their last 11 home games and that should continue this week.
My Pick: New York Jets -2.5
Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Redskins (-1.0, o/u 45.0)
Thomas Davis is set to return this week to the Panthers, which will vastly improve their defense against a Redskins passing offense that is averaging only 245 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the dual threat ability of Christian McCaffrey should keep the Skins on their heels throughout the game.
The Panthers have won five straight against the Redskins (4-1 ATS) and are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games on the road. That being said, the Skins are 4-1 in their last 5 ATS at home as well which is reflected in the spread, which is basically a pick-em.
My Pick: Carolina +1.0
Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings (-10.5, o/u 43.0)
On the surface, last week’s game against the 49ers looked like a dominant win for the Cardinals. When you dig into the numbers, however, they tell a different story. They were able to only muster 220 yards on offense, 10 first downs, and held the ball for only 19:48. They were able to pull off the win however with five turnovers. That will not happen this week. Any other week with those stat lines and you’re looking at a major blowout.
The Vikings are coming off a big win against the defending Champs. They needed a win bad and will be champing at the bit to keep the train rolling this week.
The Cardinals are 0-9 straight up in their last 9 against the Vikings losing by an average of 14.78 points. On the other hand, the Vikings are 12-2 straight up and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at home against teams with losing records.
My Pick: Minnesota -10.5
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns (+1.0, o/u 44.5)
This is a very intriguing matchup. The Browns could move to above .500 this week. Yes, you read that right. Honestly, if the Browns had a kicker, they could easily be 4-1, if not 5-0. You have a few factors in this game going against each side. First, traveling east for a west coast team to play in the one-o’clock time slot is never easy. For the Browns, as the Ravens proved last week, it’s tough to come ready to play after an emotional win. The difference here for the Browns is that they will be at home.
LA is 0-6 ATS in their last six against the Browns and 1-4 ATS in their last five after an ATS win. The Browns are 4-0-1 ATS on the season and sit at the top of the power rankings whereas the Chargers sit at 2-3 and at 21st.
The Browns win again this week and keep pace with the rest of the AFC North.
My Pick: Cleveland +1.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, o/u 57.5)
The Falcons need a win here to save their season. Another loss and they can just about kiss any hope of a postseason berth goodbye. Their defense has been horrendous due to a myriad of injuries, but coming home may be their only hope this week.
On the other side, Tampa is coming off a bye after getting shellacked in Week 4 against the Bears.
Tampa is 8-3 in their last 11 ATS after a bye and 5-2 in their last 7. The Falcons are 1-5 in their last 6, but I think for one week, they turn things around and get the W in this must-win situation.
My Pick: Atlanta -3.5
Los Angeles Rams vs. Denver Broncos (+7.0, o/u 52.5)
The Broncos took a beating in New York last week, but they’re a different team at home. However, they’re not that much of a different team for me to consider taking them here against arguable the best team in the NFL.
The Rams are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in the late timeslot. They’re also 6-3 ATS in their last nine on the road. Denver, on the other hand, is 1-3-1 ATS this season and sits near the bottom of the power rankings. If you’re into betting the over/unders, the Rams have gone over in eight of their last 10 games on the road.
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams -7.0
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Dallas Cowboys (+3.0, o/u 40.5)
This should be a low-scoring affair. The total has gone under in eight of the Cowboys’ last nine games and playing a stout Jaguars defense will only help that trend. As usually, this game will depend on the arm of Blake Bortles. If he throws to the right color jersey, the Jags will win comfortably. If he turns the ball over, all bets are off.
The Jags are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss and 10-5 ATS in their last 15 road games. Dallas is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 at home and sit at 1-3-1 on the season.
My Pick: Jacksonville -3.0
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans (+3.0, o/u 41.0)
Two teams that are coming off embarrassing Week 5 losses. On paper however, the Ravens are the much better team here and need a win heading into their toughest four game stretch of the season against New Orleans, Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. Both teams have fared fairly well this season ATS so this should be a tight matchup.
Baltimore is 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 against Tennessee and 4-2 ATS in their last six on the road. Tennessee is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and 5-0 ATS in their last five at home.
The Ravens get back in the win column in a “prove-it” week for them.
My Pick: Baltimore -3.0
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots (-3.0, o/u 59.5)
After what Kansas City did to New England in the 2017 season opener, I’m sure her majesty would love nothing more than to end the Chiefs’ perfect season. In this game, there is no bad pick as you can argue your point for both teams here and have a valid argument. It really comes down to a gut feeling. Both teams have bad defenses and tremendous offenses as shown by the total, which is the highest of the season. This is going to be a shootout and fun to watch.
The Pats are 23-7-3 ATS in their last 33 home games and have gone 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a Thursday Night Football game. Kansas City on the other hand is 4-1 ATS on the season and 4-2 ATS in their last 6 against New England.
Here are some more numbers on this game:
— The favorite is 1-7-1 ATS in the last nine Sunday Night Football games
— The Patriots are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 night games
— The Patriots are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 Sunday Night Football games
— The Chiefs are 7-1 straight up and ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog
This game may very well come down to who has the ball last. Either way, I think the Chiefs have what it takes to take care of business in Foxboro.
My Pick: Kansas City +3.0
Monday – 10/15/18
San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers (-9.5, o/u 46.5)
If the NFL could flex Monday night games, this would be one of them. Green Bay has underperformed and San Fran is a shell of itself without Jimmy G. The 49ers held Arizona to 220 yards last week, and still lost by 10 points due to five turnovers. They won’t hold Aaron Rogers to that total as the 49ers stumble into Lambeau Field.
Neither team has fared well ATS this year and both sit near the bottom of the power rankings. San Fran is 1-4 ATS in their last 5, but 4-2 ATS in their last 6 on the road. The Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall. Here’s another game where not much can be gleamed from those records or trends and you just have to go with your gut. Green Bay at home.
My Pick: Green Bay -9.5
There are six games this week where the home team is an underdog of three points or less. In five of those six, I am going with the away team, which is going against the trend so far this season. This just tells me that we’re in for a fun Week 6 with a bunch of close games.
Last week’s parlay got smoked going 1-3. I am going to go with four favorites this week and hopefully they pull it out for me:
New York Jets -2.5
Good luck to everyone this week! Check out GridIron Gold for your online betting needs.